The year 2024 on many accounts is another legacy year, carrying forward the aatmanirbhartha push in the Indian defence sector, a resolve to reduce dependence on imports of military products that got strengthened due to the global conflicts beginning with Russia-Ukraine war.
The defence production continued to soar, exports to 100 countries is on the uptick and so does the attempts to curtail capability deficiency. But in many ways 2024 turned out to be a year for recalibration of defence ties with key nations for strategic autonomy.
The breakthrough in the India-China border talks announced on October 21 ended the four-year long standoff that began due to the bloody Galwan Attack.The diplomatic event, still unfolding, stood out as the high-point for India’s multinational foreign policy, lowering a bit animosity between the Asian giants. whose relationship at one point of time was defined through the slogan of “Hindi-Chini bhai bhai”.
Now the patrolling has resumed on mutually agreed grids following military disengagement in friction points of Depsang and Demchok in Easter Ladakh to the pre 2020 April positions. But, other contentious issues like addressing buffer zones which are no go areas for both the troops in Northern borders, and continued hostilities in eastern sector of Arunachal Pradesh, which also saw skirmish among the troops of Indian Army and Chinese PLA on December 9, 2022, remain unresolved.
Though Indian defence forces are not willing to lower their guard at the LAC given that the trust deficit remains against the principal adversary, the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval in Beijing on December 18 has set encouraging agenda for building further consensus on border issues.
Doval and Wang “reaffirmed their commitment to continue seeking a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable package solution to the boundary issue”. Both agreed to take “positive measures to promote this process”, as per a statement put out after the special representatives meeting in Beijing.
However, sources in the Defence Ministry stated that long lasting solution for border dispute is still far away for a variety of reasons, primary among them is that China’s territorial ambitions including in Indo Pacific region is still intact and that they would like to keep such irritants for negotiations in future.
Tech-driven future warfare
Notwithstanding that, government officials said that the thaw in the relationship will help the MoD to go ahead and formalise the jointness of the tri-services without any immediate fear of lurking danger at the LAC and Line of Control with Pakistan. An announcement for theaterisation of forces is expected to happen next year, may be a bit early. It will also encourage the MoD to pursue with same vigour modernisation of the armed forces to equip and train soldiers for the tech-driven future warfare.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Moscow early this month too signifies an important development in the country’s military diplomacy. It exhibited that India is willing to absorb diplomatic compulsions from Washington, which government officials here believe may be not that intense with Donald Trumph’s return to White House, in its renewed defence engagement with Russia.
This was quite apparent from Singh’s comment post 21st meeting of India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission with his Russian counterpart, Andrey Belousov, on December 10.
“Despite geopolitical challenges and great pressure on India, both in public and in private, India has made a conscious decision that the country will not only continue close contacts with Russia but will also deepen and expand our interaction. We will always be with our Russian colleagues,” Singh was quoted as having said by Russian Defence Ministry.
It was primarily to restore supply chain disruptions, caused since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, impacting mobility of military products, expedite delays in acquisition of remaining two units of S-400 surface-to-air missile systems and its spares and Kamov helicopters, and explore more Transfer of Technology (TOT) for maintenance of Su-30MKI—frontline fighters of the Indian Air Force.
MoD sources said Singh’s visit gained currency owing to India’s hunt for a foreign original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to locally develop a new engine, with 110 kN Class thrust, for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
India does not want to be dependent on the US for the aero engines. In June GE signed an MoU with the HAL for co-development of GE-414 engines which would produce 98 kN thrust to power Tejas LCA Mk-2 fighters. It’s earlier version, GE-404 engines, producing 84 kN thrust, will fly LCA MK-1A. The GE-404 engines supply, however, has been delayed affecting IAF’s induction plans to augment its depleting fighter jets fleet strength.
Russia, on its part, will want to retrieve its share in global defence market which it lost due to sanctions after getting into war with Ukraine. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report of 2024, Russia’s export of defence products to India for the first time came down below half of its imports. It accounts for India’s 36 percent of arms imports. India’s military inventory has about 60 percent Russian origin products.
The United States and France in Europe exploited this opportunity to fill in the void created by Russia in arms trade with India. According to a recent US Congress report, “The US government is actively encouraging India to reduce its dependence on Russian origin defence articles.”
Alternatively, India’s defence exports to the US equally has grown to account for over 50 percent of the total exports, exceeding $2.8 billion during the last 5 years. India is also putting its ‘Look East’ act together to restore defence engagement with neighbours like Sri Laka, and Maldives though nose diving of relations with Bangladesh is a big worry.
Military diplomacy
India’s rethinking on military diplomacy should also show up in the ability to successfully push arms sale in favourable catchment areas of Africa and South America. For that the government needs to bring another set of defence reforms to streamline policy on acquisitions, given that tendering process is still complicated and lengthy, and to facilitate exports.
A company which got a contract for selling military hardware abroad about four months ago is still struggling to get export licence. A Defence Export Promotion Council, however, is in the process of being made to overcome such hurdles.
SIDM president and industry veteran Rajinder Singh Bhatia, however, said that 2024 despite under the shadows of geo-political uncertainties, beamed reflections of India emerging as a land of opportunities especially in the defence sector. “Realisation of the need for self reliance and indigenisation in the domain of defence & security requirements, led to numerous policy reviews for ease of doing business and further integrating user/ armed forces , MoD and defence industry ; wherein SIDM played a pivotal role.”
