Crude oil futures traded higher on Tuesday morning after US President Donald Trump hinted at another tariff exemption.
At 9.58 am on Tuesday, June Brent oil futures were at $65.04, up by 0.25 per cent, and May crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $61.73, up by 0.33 per cent. April crude oil futures were trading at ₹5,293 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹5,264, up by 0.55 per cent, and May futures were trading at ₹5,275 against the previous close of ₹5,250, up by 0.48 per cent.
On Monday, Trump said he is considering a modification to the 25 per cent tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada and other places. “Car companies need a little bit of time because they’re going to make them here,” he said. Trump had recently announced temporary exemptions for certain tech products from reciprocal tariffs.
In their Commodities Feed for Tuesday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said oil prices rose marginally higher on Monday despite OPEC trimming demand estimates. ICE Brent settled just below $65 a barrel. The market is digesting fast-moving policy developments on the tariff front, while balancing them with nuclear talks between the US and Iran. Clearly, the market is more focused on tariffs and what they mean for oil demand.
They said Chinese trade data released on Monday was fairly strong when it comes to oil. Crude oil imports averaged almost 12.2 million barrels a day in March, up 4.8 per cent year-on-year and nearly 9 per cent higher month on month. Yet cumulative crude imports are still down 1.5 per cent year-on-year so far this year. Meanwhile, refined product exports rose almost 40 per cent month-on-month in March to 5.24 million tonnes. Year-to-date, though, exports are still down 15.9 per cent year-on-year. Refined exports were weaker due to lower export margins. Meanwhile, China has so far issued two batches of 2025 export quotas for refined products totalling 31.8 million tonnes, down 4 per cent year-on-year.
ING Think’s commodities feed said Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly oil market report on Monday, taking the opportunity to reduce demand growth estimates for this year and next. Given the recent tariff developments, OPEC reduced its 2025 oil demand growth estimate by 150,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day year-on-year. Demand for 2026 saw a similar reduction; it’s now expected to grow by 1.28 million barrels a day, it said.
“As we mentioned last week, the broader weakness in prices suggest the market is pricing in a much larger demand hit due to tariffs. In addition, OPEC continues to maintain more bullish demand estimates than other agencies. Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that oil demand will grow by just over 1 million barrels a day this year. Later today, we will find out if the IEA lowered demand estimates amid an escalation in tariffs when the agency releases its monthly oil report,” the commodities feed said.
April natural gas futures were trading at ₹288.30 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹292.70, down by 1.50 per cent.
On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), April turmeric (farmer polished) contracts were trading at ₹14,500 in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹14,354, up by 1.02 per cent.
May castorseed futures were trading at ₹6,379 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹6,432, down by 0.82 per cent.
Published on April 15, 2025
