Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($60.80/barrel) was up 0.8 per cent whereas crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹5,155/barrel) lost 0.5 per cent. Here is the outlook and trade recommendation.
Brent futures ($60.80)
Brent crude oil futures was trading flat last week. But the price movement since October, where the contract has been making lower highs and lower lows, hints at the possibility of further fall from the current level.
That said, the downswing can be limited as there is a key support ahead at $58.50. If there is a recovery on the back of this, Brent crude oil futures can rise to $64 and then possibly to $70.
But if the support at $58.50 is breached, it will open the door for a deeper decline to $53 and $46.
MCX-Crude oil (₹5,155)
Crude oil futures (January) attempted to recover early last week. However, it could not surpass the 50-day moving average at ₹5,275. The contract then gradually slid to post a weekly loss of 0.5 per cent. The price is also below the 21-day moving average, which is at ₹5,220.
The chart shows a bearish tilt and the likelihood of further moderation in price is high. From the current level, the contract can drop to ₹5,000. Support below this is at ₹4,800.
On the other hand, if crude oil futures rebound from the support (either ₹5,000 or ₹4,800), it can rise to ₹5,470. Only a decisive breakout of ₹5,470 can make the outlook bullish.
Trade strategy: Last week, we suggested going short on crude oil futures (January) at ₹5,230. Retain this trade and maintain stop-loss at ₹5,330. Book profits at ₹5,000.
Published on January 3, 2026
