Target: ₹178
CMP: ₹148.15
Seeing the indispensability of thermal power in India’s growth story and projected peak power demand of 700 GW + by 2047, Adani Power gradually built capacities and is now India’s largest private sector thermal power producer with 18.1 GW capacity (10.8 GW organic + 7.3 GW inorganic) and is targeting a capacity of 41.9 GW by FY32.
The company continues to create execution benchmarks like synchronisation of 4,620 MW Mundra within 36 months and pre-ordering of critical power equipment. With key enablers in place (land, EC, PPA, equipment) and superior operating metrics (71 per cent PLF, 91 per cent PAF), we expect operational capacity to reach 41.3 GW by FY32 and EBITDA/MW to grow from ₹1.3 crore/MW in FY25 to ₹1.8 crore/MW by FY32.
Net debt/EBITDA is likely to rise from the current low of 1.6x in FY25 to 3.0x by FY29 due to incremental debt raised to fund the capex of ₹2 lakh crore over FY25-32; but, it will moderate to 1.6x by FY31 as new capacity becomes operational.
We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and value it at 13x FY28 EV/EBITDA (considering the improvement in EBITDA/MW) with a TP of ₹178, implying 3.4x P/B FY28.
Key risks: Execution and capital intensity, corporate governance and regulatory overhang, merchant power & pricing exposure, counterparty, legal & cross-border risk and thermal concentration & regulatory transition.
Published on January 2, 2026
