Growth in the artificial intelligence
and defence sectors will boost global copper demand 50 per cent by 2040,
but supplies are expected to fall short by more than 10 million
metric tonne annually without more recycling and mining, the
consultancy S&P Global said on Thursday.
Copper has long-been used widely across the construction,
transportation, tech and electronics industries as it is one of
the best electricity-conducting metals, is corrosion-resistant
and is easy to shape and form.
While the electric vehicle industry has lifted copper demand
the past decade, the AI, defence and robotics industries will
require even more of the metal during the next 14 years
alongside traditional consumer appetite for air conditioners and
other copper-hungry appliances, S&P said in its report.
Demand globally will reach 42 million metric tonne per year
by that 2040 mark, up from 28 million metric tonne in 2025, the
report found. Without new sources of supply, nearly a quarter of
that demand is likely to be unmet, the report found.
“The underlying demand factor here is electrification of the
world, and copper is the metal of electrification,” Dan Yergin,
S&P’s vice chairman and one of the report’s authors, told
Reuters.
AI is a major growth area for copper, with more than 100 new
data centre projects last year valued at just under $61 billion,
Reuters reported last month.
The conflict in Ukraine and moves by Japan, Germany and
others to increase defence spending are likely to also fuel
copper demand, the report found.
“Demand for copper really is inelastic in the defence
sector,” said Carlos Pascual, an S&P vice president and former
US ambassador to Ukraine.
Nearly every electronic device contains copper. Chile and
Peru are the largest copper miners, and China is the largest
copper smelter. The United States, which has imposed a tariff on
some types of copper, imports half of its needs each year.
The report does not factor in potential supply from deep-sea
mining.
S&P published a similar report in 2022 that forecasted
copper demand should the world reach carbon neutrality by 2050,
a goal described as “net zero.”
The report released on Thursday uses a different
methodology, S&P said, and forecasts demand using a base-case
assumption that copper demand will rise regardless of government
climate policy.
“The politics of the energy transition have changed pretty
dramatically,” Yergin said.
Published on January 8, 2026
