Sugar stock in India as on January 31 was estimated to be 11 per cent lower at 74.49 lakh tonnes (lt) from 84.61 lt in the year-ago period, despite 17 per cent higher production and 4 per cent lower consumption during October-January of the current sugar season.
Industry experts said that sugar mills should think about other alternatives as their cash flow is not going to improve either from ethanol or from sugar, potentially forcing them to fend for themselves.
“There are 20 lt less crushing of sugarcane this year in Uttar Pradesh and the recovery rate is still below 10 per cent. Besides, there was marginal 3 per cent drop in the State’s sugar output during January when the crushing is at its peak,” said an industry expert, adding there could be a shock from UP this season though smaller in scale from what was experienced in Maharashtra last year.
Sale price hike
Asked about the lower stock, he said the opening stock this season was less than 50 lt against nearly 80 lt in 2024-25 season and the gap of 30 lt is very large, which need not have to be covered entirely as 65-70 lt of opening stock is good enough.
The government has neither accepted the industry’s demand to raise the minimum selling price (MSP) of sugar nor there was any additional indent for ethanol to be made from sugarcane-based feedstock. Only, sugar export to the tune of 15 lt has been allowed till September 30, which is higher from 10 lt permitted in 2024-25 season (October-September).
According to the Food Ministry’s data, domestic sugar sales in India, as per the quota allocated by it is expected to drop 3.5 per cent to 110.5 lt between October 2025 and February 2026 from 114.5 lt in the corresponding period of 2024-25.
Institutional offtake
A study on “Sugar Consumption in India” commissioned by Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) and released in September 2025 projected consumption to grow steadily at a 1.5-2 per cent CAGR from the 2024-25 season to 2029-30, driven primarily by growth in end-use industries
“Institutional sugar consumption is expected to maintain dominance, with retail consumption showing relatively flat growth amidst health trends and diabetes awareness. Within institutional segments, beverages expected to continue moderated growth, alongside growing demand for ice cream and confectionery,” it had said.
On the other hand, the domestic sugar production in the 2025-26 season has reached 193.05 lt as of January 31, from 165.3 lt year-ago. Maharashtra has reported an output of 78.95 lt, which is 42.3 per cent higher than 55.5 lt, Uttar Pradesh 55.1 lt from 52.7 lt (up by 4.6 per cent) and Karnataka 36.6 lt from 33.1 lt (up 10.6 per cent), according to data compiled by the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSF), the industry body of cooperatives.
The industry data also show that the sugar production in UP, the largest sugarcane grower, has slipped 3.2 per cent to 19.45 lt during last month from 20.1 lt in January 2025. While millers attribute lower crushing of sugarcane – 559.39 lt Oct-Jan from 579.12 lt year-ago – was due to late start of mills and more cane going to gur and jaggery units, farmers complain about lower yield of crop.
Published on February 3, 2026
