Huge rolls of tinplate
| Photo Credit:
mahroch
Tin soared to a record high of $56,800 on January 26 but has given up about 15 per cent of its gains in line with the losses the metals have suffered since US President Donald Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as the next US Fed chief.
However, prices are expected to increase a tad as problems persist with Indonesia export permits and Myanmar supplies in addition to strong demand from the semi-conductor industry.
“We have revised up our annual average tin price forecast for 2026 to $45,000/tonne from $35,000 previously as prices have set off on an unprecedented rally amid a sharp rise in speculative demand for tin with the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and a weaker US dollar,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
Tin prices are currently ruling at $48,526 a tonne. Despite dropping over 13 per cent last week, it has increased by 19 per cent year-to-date.
Driving factors
Tim Langston, Senior Market Analyst, International Tin Association, said the metal, used in cans, soldering electronics, and in specialised chemical batteries, hit a record high on January 26 supported by dollar weakness, a resurgence of debasement trades, and frenzied activity from Chinese investors.
“For tin, a divergence between the SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) and LME (London Metal Exchange) futures markets is beginning to emerge, as speculators outside China start to pare back positions,” he said.
Trading Economics website said catalysts for the pullback in tin after hitting a record high included the SHFE halting trading for selected managers and the rebound in the dollar. The metal had surged over 40% this year alone due to tin’s soldering usage in electronic goods and datacenters, driving investors to go long their contracts in proxy to speculative bets in AI technologies.
BMI said, “Ultimately, while we expect prices to remain elevated, we note this rally is not sustainable, and prices are likely to face a correction anytime.”
Consumers reluctant
Langston said though tin benefits from relatively inelastic demand in the form of solder, consumers are reluctant to purchase at such elevated prices, while visible exchange stocks have doubled since the start of November.
“China is now entering its off-season; however, the planned cancellation of tax rebates for PV products from April 1, 2026 may be front-loading some demand into Q1,” he said.
BMI said the International Tin Association announced in July 2025 that shipments from Myanmar’s Wa state will resume. But there has been no further update yet.
“In this regard, we have adopted a wait and see approach, as news of a resumption of tin mining at the Wa state have circulated markets for months without actually materialising,” the research agency said.
Supply uncertainty
Trading Economics said physical supply remained uncertain worldwide as Indonesian President Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Sumatra. This has lowered the output from the world’s second largest supplier.
BMI said China’s tin smelter production remains constrained by the lack of sufficient concentrates, while the resilience in economic activity have boosted demand from the semiconductor industry amid permitting issues in Indonesia.
The ITA senior market analyst said that on the supply side, Indonesian exports have resumed following customary New Year delays to export permits. “Meanwhile, shipments of ore from Myanmar to China have begun to stabilise at around 1,300 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate per month,” he said.
Tin mining in Myanmar’s Wa province was suspended nearly three years ago and though authorities declared that mine operations could resume, the movement has been little so far.
Myanmar is the world’s third largest tin producer, and, according to USGS data, it is estimated to have the third largest reserves in the world, at 700,000 tonnes or 15 per cent of total global reserves, after China and Indonesia (800,000 tonnes and 720,000 tonnes respectively).
Published on February 6, 2026
