Radioactive heavy metal uranium soared over $100 a pound last month due to supply disruption, but analysts are divided on the prospects for the critical mineral for 2026.
In the long-term, the metal’s prospects are promising with the emergence of structural deficit. Swiss multinational financial services firm UBS has forecast a 3 per cent growth in nuclear reactor demand over the next few years, from 2 per cent during 2020-25.
Price outlook
“We think spot prices for uranium hit a ceiling in January 2026 after rallying more than 25 per cent to highs above $100/lb. In our view, the uranium market is only in a minor deficit currently, with supply from Central Asia, Canada and Namibia likely to support demand for the next 2-3 years,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solution.
Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE), in its forecast to 2028, sees spot prices rising from $73 a pound in 2025 to an average of $91 in 2027 as demand growth continues to outpace supply.
Vancouver-based global investment bank Canaccord Genuity sees uranium prices at $110 in the long term, while Swiss multinational investment bank UBS has forecast demand for nuclear reactors at 3 per cent
Currently, uranium is ruling at $82 a pound, after a fresh bout of increase in supply outweighing demand.
Supply disruption
BMI said spot prices, which track market sentiment towards uranium, surged in response to supply disruption throughout 2025. The world’s two largest uranium mining companies, Kazatomprom and Cameco, cut production guidance for key projects due to a mix of weak prices and operational challenges.
“While we remain bullish on uranium over the medium to long term, we think prices may struggle to head higher than $100/lb this year, for two reasons,” said the research agency.
First, spot uranium is currently trading more than 10 per cent above the term price, which tracks the price utilities pay for delivery of uranium over the next 3-10 years. “This suggests the recent rally in the spot market is mostly speculative, rather than driven by fundamentals,” said BMI.
Second, a decision on whether to approve NexGen’s Rook I Project in Canada’s Saskatchewan province is due to be delivered in the coming weeks by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, which is holding a hearing on the project currently.
US deal boosts sentiments
“If the project is approved, it will be on track to deliver over 10,000 tonnes of uranium annually in the early 2030s. This would add to fears of a supply glut in uranium, weighing on both the spot price and the term price,” it said.
UBS and Canaccord are bullish on the price outlook for uranium as supply-side challenges continue against rising demand.
The AOCE said a $80 billion deal to build reactors in the US boosted sentiment. In late September 2025, prices rose to over $83 following the release of the World Nuclear Association (WNA) fuel report.
The WNA estimates that global nuclear capacity will likely triple by 2050 to meet decarbonisation and electrification goals. But years of underinvestment have hollowed out the uranium project pipeline.
Cautious capital commitment
The US plans to quadruple domestic nuclear capacity, a narrative that has recentered uranium as a strategic fuel rather than a legacy commodity. China has almost tripled its nuclear capacity in the last decade and is aiming to add a further 150 nuclear reactors over the next 15 years.
France is implementing a Nuclear Acceleration Act. Numerous countries are reversing plans to phase out or retire nuclear energy plants, and countries such as South Korea are seeking to accelerate their nuclear plans.
Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, said even at a spot price above $80 per pound, major producers such as Cameco and Kazatomprom have been cautious about committing capital to new large-scale developments.
BMI said currently, the uranium market is only modestly under supplied. It estimates uranium production from Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium miner, to have increased by 8 per centin 2025, despite shortages of sulphuric acid.
Removing metal from circulation
“We forecast another 5 per cent increase in Kazakh supply for 2026. In Canada, the world’s second-largest producer, we expect production to rise by 12 per cent in 2026 as development delays ease at Cameco’s McArthur River/Key Lake mining and milling operation,” it said.
In Namibia, the world’s third-largest producer, the research agency expects volumes to increase by 15 per cent year-on-year.
Canaccord Genuity said physical uranium investment vehicles, particularly the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, have removed tens of millions of pounds from circulation, tightening availability even further. That tightening is occurring alongside geopolitical fragmentation.
It said that since the early 2000s, a genuine step-change in demand is being witnessed in uranium that is catered towards nuclear. Public and private investment are now strongly supportive.
Further gains
BMI said in 2026, any further gains for uranium prices will likely come from strong retail demand and/or policy support. “In recent years, purchases of physical uranium by investment trusts, including the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust in Toronto and Yellow Cake Plc in London, have tightened both the spot and term markets, with both trusts stockpiling uranium that, in theory, will never be used for nuclear energy,” it said.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, governments have also intervened in the uranium market, with Russia being the world’s largest producer of enriched uranium.
BMI said the US Department of Energy could also designate uranium as a critical material, as it did with coking coal in May 2025, which would require amending the definition of a non-fuel material under the 2020 Energy Act.
“Whichever way it happens, we would expect further recognition of uranium’s importance by the US government to boost sentiment in the spot market and increase contracting volumes in the term market,” said the research agency.
Published on February 11, 2026
