CLSA on India Telecoms
5G FWA and UBR FWA acceleration is underway.
Reliance Jio is the largest player in both 5G FWA and UBR FWA, showing 2.6× acceleration in the last 12 months.
Jio’s 5G FWA + UBR FWA subscribers have reached 11.5 million.
Bharti Airtel’s 5G FWA subscribers stand at 3 million and the company is testing UBR FWA.
Subscribed homes have reached 25 million, which is 90% ahead of Bharti’s 13 million.
The home broadband market has potential to double to 100–130 million in the medium term.
Post-5G mobile phase, Jio and Bharti are well positioned to dominate India’s home opportunity.
Bundled home broadband + pay TV subscribers ramp-up could create a US$10–14 billion annual revenue opportunity.
This comes on top of India mobile revenue growing ~30% to US$42 billion by FY28 (CL).
Citi on India Autos & Auto Parts (3Q FY26 Review)
3Q results came in slightly ahead; domestic demand remained resilient post-festive season.
FY27 volume outlook: mid-single-digit growth for passenger vehicles, high-single-digit growth for two-wheelers.
Exports remain strong in LatAm, Asia, and Africa; weakness continues in China and Europe.
Commodity cost pressure from aluminium, copper, and nickel; OEMs are cautious on price increases, leading to margin compression in 3Q.
Capacity expansion theme remains strong with Maruti, Hyundai, M&M, and Eicher being active.
Top picks: Maruti > M&M > Hyundai
CITI on Navin Fluorine
Sell, TP Rs 5550
Analyst meet takeaways
R32 pricing – Mgmt. doesn’t see any major downside risk to R32 pricing, despite the significant capacity additions owing to healthy longer-term demand profile.
HFOs – NFIL currently has 20% spare capacity for HFO sales to Honeywell (Solstice Advanced Materials). Mgmt is in discussions with Honeywell to expand here. However, NFIL is currently not looking at debottlenecking/expansion (for now).
Chemours Contract – NFIL’s two phase immersion cooling fluid (Opteon – Chemours’ proprietary product) plant at Dahej is expected to be commissioned by 1QFY27. This is an initial investment (capex of $14m) with mgmt. to evaluate a larger capex (potentially 10x of initial investment) once demand for coolant picks up as AI usage gains traction.
AHF – NFIL has commissioned 40ktpa AHF capacity in Feb’26. This will take NFIL’s total AHF capacity to 60ktpa. Mgmt expects to sell 6-7kt AHF externally in FY27 but would ultimately use this for captive consumption.
Agchem – The Rs5.4bn multipurpose plant (commissioned in Dec’24) is ramping up with ~50% dedicated capacity utilized this year. NFIL is working to utilize the balance ~50% capacity in FY27.
CDMO – Mgmt. expects further growth in Fermion contract (from the current run rate). NFIL continues to work on 10-15 molecules across stages. NFIL’s portfolio was initially comprised predominantly of early stage molecules; this has shifted towards a higher mix of mid-late stage molecules.
Kotak Inst Eqt on Navin Fluorine
Sell, TP Rs 4590
Analyst meet takeaways
Management provided a firmly bullish outlook, guiding to a 20-25% CAGR in revenues through FY2030 along with likely sustenance of EBITDA margins around currently guided levels of 30%. Remaining cautious on valuations & believe fully factor in growth guidance.
CLSA on Dixon Tech
Downgrade to Hold from O-P, TP cut to Rs 12100 from Rs 15800
Memory industry is entering a super cycle, driven by AI’s appetite for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5, while mainstream storage faces tightening supply and rising costs.
India’s dependence on imports leaves it exposed to this global squeeze, especially as memory manufacturers prioritise high-margin AI-grade memory.
Memory prices have already surged, with DDR5/DDR4 contract rates up 119%/63% MoM in January and NAND contract prices rising 37-67%
Believe smartphone volumes are at risk, as rising memory costs could inflate ASPs by 10-25%, disproportionately impacting the lower-end consumer segment.
Given risks to low-end smartphone volumes and concerns around medium-term growth visibility
Jefferies on Alkem Labs
Buy, TP Rs 6550
Analyst day takeaways
Discussed their Medtech strategy and recent Occlutech acq.
Taking the inorganic route, Alkem has built division over two years & focused on ortho and now cardiac segments.
Alkem now plans to consolidate these acq. & scale organically.
Though nascent at present, over next 5y mgt. envisions Medtech sales of Rs 10b & 20-25% EBITDA margins.
MOSL on Tata Steel
Buy, TP Rs 240
Remain constructive on back of a strong domestic demand outlook, safeguard duty-led price support, ongoing capacity expansions & a gradual turnaround in EU business
Capacity expansion to drive earnings amid demand upswing
Steel prices to recover, backed by safeguard duty + CABM + China’s supply discipline
Breakeven for European operations – TSUK breakeven on track; TSN cost restructuring to drive profitability
STK trading at 7.7x EV/EBITDA and 2.3x FY27E P/B.
MOSL on JK Cement
Buy, TP Rs 6780
Strong demand tailwinds drive higher utilizations in North & Central
Panna phase-2 commissioned on time; Jaisalmer expansion in full swing
Expect JKCE to report robust volume growth (13% CAGR over FY26-28), driven by capacity expansions
Est. consolidated revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR at 13%/17%/19% over FY26-28, & EBITDA/t at Rs 1,107/Rs 1,140 in FY27/FY28
Nuvama on Hitachi Energy
Buy, TP Raised to Rs 26400
Management meet Highlights
i) T&D capex cycle likely to remain structurally strong well beyond FY32 with healthy domestic/export demand visibility for next 5–6Y.
ii) Current EBITDA margin is sustainable with upside potential from operating leverage/localisation benefits over FY27–28.
iii) Other drivers: Data centres (~15% wallet share), Railways (expected over 15–18M) & growing HVDC pipeline
Improved conviction on – Margin upside potential & another HVDC order optionality over next 12–18M can lead to further EPS accretion from FY29
CITI on LIC Hsg
Buy, TP Rs 730
LICHF screens as least expensive & conspicuously overlooked HFC following pronounced underperformance across 3/6/12 months (-15%/-20%/-30%), compressing valuations to 0.6x FY27E P/B and 5x FY27E P/E
Current pricing embeds conservative 11.5% RoE/4% loan growth medium-to-long-term assumptions, creating compelling entry valuation for patient capital
Mgmt is actively recalibrating strategy – enhancing distribution, elevating agent productivity, scaling direct/lead generation, exploring co-lending, and expanding capacity in selfemployed/affordable segments.
Risk-reward looks compelling –see limited downside
CLSA on Coforge
High Conviction O-P, TP Rs 2426
Guidance for 2026 by Sabre seems in line with street expectations
Sabre guided for mid-single digit revenue growth in FY26 with negative free cash flow implying one needs to closely track its FCF generation to pay off a significant amount of debt.
Sabre, in their earnings call, highlighted it is seeing significant AI infusion in its product platform
Coforge is working closely with leadership team of Sabre, not only at CIO, CTO & CMO level but also at CFO, CEO & board level. This allows it have insights into Sabre’s business & its future steps.
Coforge had signed a large US$1.56bn deal over a 13-year period with Sabre in March 2025.
GS on Eicher Motors
Buy, TP Raised to Rs 9,200 from Rs8,600
Post GST cuts in Sept 2025 on sub 350cc motorcycles, Eicher’s Hunter 350 cc has steadily re-rated to a 20k per month volume run rate in domestic market (vs 15k per month 12 months ago)
Expect part of announced capacity acceleration over next 24 months to support more volume growth on Hunter 350 cc (especially heading into a pay commission phase in FY28 and beyond)
Raise FY26E to FY28E EPS estimates by upto 3%.
JPM Cement Sector
Believe capacity growth (even though somewhat delayed) will cap industry utilizations over the next three years.
Each of large caps guides to:
a) cost reductions and
b) market-share gains. In the end, the consensus expected EBITDA/MT expansion will rely more on cement price growth
There is an inherent contradiction then – bottom-up aspirations of market-share gains do not support top-down pricing discipline outcomes
Ultratech – OW , TP Rs 15000; execution of scale & pricing should continue to help it differentiate itself over smaller competitors
Dalmia Bharat – Upgrade to Neutral, TP Rs 2215; Cos numbers appear reasonable to us so it may not see major cuts.
Morgan Stanley bottom up Idea post Q3FY26
Overweight Ideas
Polycab, Lenskart, Shriram Finance, Grasim, Tata Steel, IOCL, & Eternal
Underweight ideas
Dixon, Berger, SBI Cards, Shree Cement, SAIL, & SRF
Jefferies top ideas
Showing strong earnings improvement in FY27 ve FY26
Ambuja, AU bank, Axis, Bajaj Finance, Bharat Forge, Chola
Eternal, Godrej Prop., Hindustan Zinc, JSW Energy, Mankind,
Samvardhana Motherson, Sona BLW, Star Health & Voltas
Goldman Sachs on MakeMyTrip
Management views AI-related concerns as overdone, given the fragmented supplier base, payment complexity, and post-sales service requirements.
The hotel volume–revenue disconnect observed in 3Q FY26 is considered temporary rather than structural.
There is no intention to cap margins at 1.8–2.0% of GBV.
The company reiterated its intention to list in India, although no firm timeline was provided.
Buy rating maintained (on conviction list).
Elara on Safari Industries
Maintains Buy rating with a raised target price of ₹3,248 (previously ₹3,111).
The 20-year exclusive licensing deal for Carlton is expected to accelerate premiumisation with low capital risk.
Expects revenue / EBITDA / PAT CAGR of 17.4% / 24.8% / 27.0% over FY25–28E.
Estimates raised by 3.0% / 5.3% for FY27E / FY28E.
Valuation based on 35× FY28E EV/EBITDA.
Elara on VIP Industries
Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy; target price maintained at ₹430.
Q3 FY26 performance was weak due to elevated inventory provisioning and heavy discounting.
Gross margin impacted by the second consecutive quarter of inventory write-offs.
Revenue estimates reduced by 3.6% / 2.2% / 1.8% for FY26E / FY27E / FY28E.
EBITDA margin expected to recover to 10.2% by FY28E.
Goldman Sachs on KPIT Technologies
Target price cut to ₹940 (from ₹1,050).
EPS estimates reduced by approximately 3–5% across FY26E–FY28E.
Near-term disruption anticipated from the shift to a solutions-based business model.
Valuation multiple for the M&A component reduced to 34× (from 39×).
Jefferies on India Equity Strategy
Increased confidence in EPS growth improvement.
Bottom-up forecast raises FY27 MSCI India EPS growth by +5 percentage points to 15%.
Improved nominal GDP growth supported by higher inflation, aiding revenues and earnings.
Potential normal or deficit monsoon could support higher growth across sectors.
Banks’ NIMs appear to have bottomed out, supporting the largest MSCI India sector.
Credit growth has improved to 13% (vs 11% in Mar-25) and is expected to remain around 13% over FY26–28.
Citi on Aadhaar Housing Finance
Medium-term AUM trajectory of 20–22% with potential to cross ₹500 billion+ milestone.
Spreads expected to remain anchored above 5.6% through the medium term.
Credit cost guidance of 25–27 bps.
Annual improvement of 40–50 bps in C/I ratio and 6–8 bps in cost-to-assets.
Trades at 2.3× FY26E book with >4.4% / 16% RoA / RoE.
Recommendation: Buy | Target: ₹650
