As Indian imports of Russian crude oil narrow due to US and EU sanctions, shipments of the geopolitically-sensitive commodity from Saudi Arabia are expected at around one million barrels per day (mb/d) in February 2026, highest in more than six years.
New Delhi has turned towards its traditional suppliers in West Asia, particularly Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, to replace lost Russian barrels. Another beneficiary is the US.
To top it up, Saudi Aramco slashing Arab Light’s official selling price to Asia by $0.30 a barrel for March, on par with the Oman/Dubai benchmark, reflects Riyadh’s efforts to address completion amidst rising global supply.
Global real time data and analytics provider Kpler anticipates that Russian oil crude imports into India are estimated at around 1–1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in February 2026, easing towards roughly 800-1,000 thousand b/d (kb/d) in March.
“However, we continue to see this as a short-term stabilisation rather than a return to the mid-2025 peak, and we expect Russia’s share in India’s crude slate to gradually stabilise to a lower range in 2026 compared to 2024/2025 as commercial and policy frictions build,” it added.
Russia emerged as India’s main crude oil supplier in the last few years with Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE filling the next three spots. Recently, Washington displaced Abu Dhabi to take the fourth spot.
With the US sanctions on Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, coming into effect in November 2025 and the EU’s 19th sanctions package becoming effective last month, India’s crude oil imports dynamics is undergoing another transition.
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling told businessline “Saudi Arabia has already regained its position as India’s top supplier in February month-to-date data. As of February 19, Saudi volumes are tracking around 1.4 mb/d, marking the highest level since November 2019.”
However, Kpler expects some moderation in the coming weeks, with a few parcels likely slipping into early March, he added.
“On a full-month basis, our predictive flows model currently indicates Saudi imports averaging closer to around 1-1.1 mb/d in February, still a multi-year high,” Ritolia emphasised.
The immediate replacement for softer Russian flows has largely come from the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, he pointed out.
Recent OSP adjustments for Asia have improved the competitiveness of Saudi barrels, Iraq and the UAE, encouraging additional buying for March-loading cargoes, Ritolia explained.
“We also expect Russian imports to dip further in April, as Nayara’s Vadinar refinery is scheduled for maintenance in April–May (2026). Overall, we see Russian flows gradually declining in the medium term, rather than stopping entirely,” he added.
“In summary, while Saudi Arabia is currently positioned as India’s largest supplier in February (till date), followed by Russia and Iraq and as the month closes, we expect some moderation in volumes from Saudi Arabia and overall Volumes from Iraq and Saudi Arabia to be similar around 1-1.1 mb/d,” the Kpler analyst projected.
Signs of a “more pragmatic understanding” appears to be developing between New Delhi and Washington, which effectively allows India to continue importing “baseload” volumes from Moscow, he said.
“The implied tolerance level appears to be around 800–1,000 kb/d, with near-term volatility driven by sanctions risk, shipping constraints and logistics, Ritolia said.
The expectation seems to be that India can maintain volumes needed to support refinery operations and domestic fuel supply, but should avoid materially increasing purchases beyond that baseline.
Published on February 20, 2026
