Brokerage Emkay Global Financial Services has reiterated a selective stance on metal stocks, with a preference for Steel Authority of India Ltd and Jindal Steel and Power Ltd in the ferrous space, while naming Vedanta Ltd as its top pick among non-ferrous players, according to its latest sector report.
The brokerage said rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia have disrupted key trade routes, pushing up freight costs and reducing the competitiveness of imports. This has supported domestic steel prices and enabled Indian producers to sustain higher realisations.
Domestic steel prices have seen steady gains, with hot rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices increasing by ₹1,000–₹3,500 per tonne since the onset of the conflict. On a year-to-date basis, this translates to about a 16 per cent rise in HRC prices and a 22 per cent increase in rebar prices, reflecting strong demand and improved pricing power for steelmakers.
Emkay noted that the impact on raw material costs remains contained in the near term due to India’s self-sufficiency in iron ore and adequate coking coal inventories. However, a prolonged disruption could lead to higher input costs, particularly for imported coal, thereby affecting margins.
In the non-ferrous segment, aluminium has emerged as a key beneficiary of supply disruptions. The report highlighted that West Asia accounts for 8–9 per cent of global aluminium supply, and recent curtailments have tightened availability.
Emkay expects aluminium prices to remain elevated in the range of $3,200–$3,500 per tonne, with potential upside if disruptions persist.
Among stocks, Vedanta is seen as well-positioned to benefit from higher aluminium prices, given its significant exposure to the metal. The brokerage also flagged potential value unlocking from the company’s proposed demerger as an additional catalyst.
The report further noted that rising oil and gas prices have driven substitution-led demand for thermal coal, boosting prices and improving realisations for companies such as Coal India Ltd.
Despite the recent correction in metal stocks amid broader market volatility, Emkay maintained a “neutral-to-positive” outlook on both ferrous and non-ferrous segments, advising investors to remain selective as geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence commodity prices and sector dynamics.
Nifty Metal index has corrected over 11 per cent since March 2, 2026. In the previous trading session, the index staged resilience amid the broader market slump. National Aluminium, SAIL, Hindalco and Vedanta emerged as top gainers, while Hindustan Copper depreciated the most.
Published on March 31, 2026
