OPEC+ may approve an oil output increase on Sunday, four sources from the group said,
a rise that will largely exist on paper as its key members are
unable to raise production due to the U.S.-Israeli war with
Iran.
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – the
world’s most important oil route – since the end of February and
cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and
Iraq, the only countries in the group which were able to
significantly raise production even before the conflict began.
Other group members such as Russia are unable to increase
output due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure
inflicted during the war with Ukraine.
Inside the Gulf, damage to infrastructure from missile and
drone attacks has also been severe. Several Gulf officials have
said it would take months to resume normal operations and reach
production targets even if the war stopped and Hormuz reopened
immediately.
At its last meeting on March 1, just as the war began to
disrupt oil flows, OPEC+ agreed to a modest output boost of
206,000 barrels per day for April.
A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is
estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million barrels
per day or up to 15% of global supply.
Crude prices have soared to a four-year high close to
$120 a barrel. Oil prices could spike above $150 – an all-time
high – if flows via Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May,
JPMorgan said on Thursday.
Sunday’s meeting will discuss OPEC+ quotas for May, sources
said.
An increase will have little immediate impact on supply but
would signal readiness to raise output once Hormuz reopens,
OPEC+ sources have said. Consultancy Energy Aspects called the
increase “academic” as long as disruptions in the strait
persist.
Published on April 5, 2026
