File picture: Dark clouds gather over the skies of Walayar on the Kerala–Tamil Nadu border in Palakkad
| Photo Credit:
K K Mustafah
India’s 2026 South-West monsoon rainfall is likely to be “below normal”. It will quantitatively be 92% of Long Period Average, said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
The India Meteorological Department’s projection is for a rainfall lower than the forecast of a 94% long-period average rainfall made by private forecast agency Skymet last week.
The IMD projection was a highly anticipated announcement following predictions of below-normal precipitation from various experts and agencies. While this initial outlook is confined to the cumulative rainfall for the June–September season, omitting specific geographic or monthly breakdowns, it remains a critical driver for policy decisions and fluctuations in the stock and commodities markets.
The South-West monsoon has a 75 per cent share in India’s annual normal rainfall of 116 cm and plays a crucial role in crop production as 48 per cent of the cultivable area is not irrigated.
In 2025, the monsoon rainfall was above normal, or quantitatively 108 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm (1971-2020). The IMD had predicted 105 per cent above normal rainfall in the first forecast and 106 per cent in its second stage forecast in 2025.
Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of LPA is considered ‘normal’ and between 90-95 is ‘below normal’. Similarly, IMD has categorised rainfall between 105-110 per cent of LPA as ‘above normal’ and more than 110 per cent as ‘excess’. Below 90 per cent rainfall is considered ‘deficient’ or meteorological drought.
Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted the 2026 monsoon to be ‘below normal’ and said as El Niño is expected to strengthen, the second half of the monsoon season may be negatively impacted with lower rainfall.
According to Skymet, rainfall in June may be 101 per cent of normal, in July 95 per cent, August 92 per cent, and in September 89 per cent. Prediction of geographical distribution in the entire season shows that it may be normal in the southern states, above normal in east and north-east India. But the key foodgrain producing Central and North-West regions may have below normal rainfall, Skymet said last week.
Skymet in 2025 had predicted ‘normal’ monsoon having rainfall of 103 per cent of LPA, with a 5 per cent margin of error.
In 2023 India had 94 per cent monsoon rainfall, which Skymet had accurately predicted, and despite the below normal rainfall the country’s foodgrain production rose to 332.3 million tonnes (mt) in 2023-24 agriculture year (July-June) from 329.69 mt in 2022-23.
Published on April 13, 2026
