Goldman Sachs said softer oil
demand and easing supply disruptions have balanced out the risks
in its oil price outlook, though it kept its 2026 average
forecasts unchanged.
The bank maintained its Brent and WTI crude forecasts for
2026 at $83 a barrel and $78 a barrel, respectively, assuming
oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through
which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas
supplies pass, gradually normalise by mid-May.
Crude prices settled down by around 9 per cent on Friday on
reported progress towards a potential peace deal, which Goldman
said could lead to a faster unwinding of the geopolitical risk
premium and send prices lower in the near-term.
The two sides have still not negotiated a permanent peace
agreement. US President Donald Trump once again suggested that
the war could end soon, referring to expected weekend talks with
Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the strait
was open following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon,
While flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain sharply
reduced, Goldman said downside risks have increased if Persian
Gulf supply recovers more quickly than expected, helped by
lower-than-anticipated production shut-ins and ample regional
storage capacity.
The bank said pronounced weakness in oil demand,
particularly in petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel, driven by
high refined product prices and margins, could push prices
lower.
Preliminary estimates suggest global demand losses in
early 2026 have been larger than more dramatic oil price spikes
in 2011 and 2022, Goldman said.
Demand weakness has been most evident in emerging markets
in Asia and Africa, where consumption tends to be more
price-sensitive, it added.
Published on April 18, 2026
