The Reserve Bank of India’s survey of professional forecasters (SPF) has projected FY27 real GDP growth a tad lower at 6.5 per cent against the central bank’s projection of 6.6 per cent.
The SPF projected FY27 CPI inflation to be 20 basis points (bps) softer at 4.9 per cent against RBI’s projection of 5.1 per cent.
The aforementioned projections show that while professional forecasters are slightly bearish on growth, they have a better outlook on inflation as compared to RBI.
Forty panellists participated in the 100th round of the bi-monthly SPF, which was conducted during May 2026.
“So, this (difference in SPF and RBI estimates on real GDP growth and inflation) is a matter of perception….if you go back in the data and check, there will always be some difference because their methodologies may be different, their sample may be different.
“But, the elephant in the room is the Middle East situation. So, everything boils down to when this war ends. If it ends within, let’s say, 15-20 days, everything is on track. If it goes on for, let’s say, six months or eight months, all these calculations/ estimates could be under some kind of a strain,” said Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.
In his second bi-monthly monetary policy review statement on June 5th, Governor Sanjay Malhotra observed that CPI inflation remains below the (4 per cent) target despite global shock as the pass-through to domestic prices has been limited.
“While the baseline projections point towards headline inflation firming up towards the upper tolerance level (6 per cent) in Q3 (October-December) FY27, the impact of the supply shock is expected to wane Q4 (January-March) onwards. The underlying inflation pressures continue to remain benign at this juncture,” he said.
However, generalisation of inflation through second-round effects on expectations and wages is a distinct possibility, warranting a close vigil. The outlook also remains clouded due to the sub-normal south-west monsoon forecast and El Niño risks, the Governor said.
As for growth, Malhotra noted that the MPC (monetary policy committee) noted that elevated energy prices coupled with global supply constraints are having adverse spillovers on economic activity.
“While domestic demand remains resilient and manufacturing and services sectors activity continue to expand, there are incipient signs of moderation in some sectors as suggested by high frequency indicators,” he said.
For FY28, the SPF projected real GDP growth and CPI inflation at 6.9 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively.
The forecasters assigned highest probability to real GDP growth in the range of 6.5-6.9 per cent for both FY27 and FY28
In terms of quarterly path, real GDP growth (year-on-year/ yoy) is expected at 7.3 per cent during Q4 (January-March): FY26; and between 6.4-7.0 per cent in the four quarters of FY27.
CPI inflation
Headline CPI inflation (yoy) is expected at 4.0 per cent during Q1 (April-June) FY27 (RBI’s projection: 4.2 per cent).
Thereafter, it is expected to increase to 4.9 per cent in Q2 (July-September; RBI’s projection: 5.1 per cent) and further to 5.5 per cent in Q3 (October-December; 5.9 per cent) and then moderate to 5.2 per cent during Q4 (January-March; 5.4 per cent).
Core CPI (excluding food and fuel) inflation is expected at 3.9 per cent during Q1FY27; thereafter it is projected to remain between 4.4-4.7 per cent in the subsequent three quarters.
Current Account Deficit
Current account deficit (CAD) is expected at 2.1 per cent (of GDP at current market prices) for FY27 (against 1.5 per cent estimated in the last round) and at 1.2 per cent for FY28 (unchanged).
Published on June 7, 2026
