A slack performance in the African region dragged Indian exports by over 10 per cent in value, though the overall volume was up 6.5 per cent in the 2025-26 financial year.
Data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) showed that while a little over 15 million tonnes (mt) of non-basmati rice was exported, the value was down to $5.86 billion compared with $6.53 billion in 2024-25.
Shipments, in particular, were lower to West, Central Africa and the ASEAN region, while they were up to South Asia, East Africa, West Asia and other South African countries.
“A combination of factors was behind the slack shipments to the African region,” said New Delhi-based exporter Rajesh Paharia Jain.
Huge inventories
India’s policy uncertainty, foreign exchange shortages in African countries, stronger competition from Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan, disruption in freight and weaker buyer sentiments due to huge inventories contributed to this, he said.
S Chandrasekaran, a New Delhi-based trade analyst, said some of the African countries had bought huge quantities of rice during 2024-25 after India lifted the ban on rice exports in 2024. They were holding the stocks last fiscal.
India curbed rice exports from 2022 after unseasonal rains and El Nino affected paddy production.
Dollar shortage
Jain said countries such as Nigeria, Senegal, and Benin faced a severe shortage of US dollars, while some buyers sought trade in their local currencies. Indian exporters rejected it.
“Delays in contracts and reduction in fresh purchase orders hurt Indian exports,” he said.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its “Grain: World Markets and Trade” report this month, said India will continue to account for 40 per cent of global trade, with the Philippines, Vietnam, and China remaining the top importers.
For the 2026-27 season (September 2026-August 2027), India is projected to exports 24.5 million tonnes (mt) of basmati and non-basmati rice.
Most competitive
Though rice prices in the global market have rebounded to a two-year high, India is the most competitive at $350 a tonne for 5 per cent broken. It is at least $40 a tonne lower than Pakistan, $60 than Vietnam and $145 than Thailand for the same grade.
In the case of parboiled rice, its price at $338 a tonne is far lower than Pakistan’s $391 and Thailand’s $511. “Indian rice prices have not picked up as other competitors,” said Jain.
“Indian rice is the most competitive in the global market, and competitors will find it tough to match Indian rates,” said Chandrasekaran.
An industry source said Indian offers are competitive as the competition is “cut-throat” within the country. “There is a lack of unity among our exporters, and each tries to undermine the other,” said the source, who did not wish to be identified.
Bearish parboiled
The Food and Agriculture Organisation said, in its “Rice Price Update”, that quite trading activity is keeping Indian prices steady to mildly lower. The sentiment has taken a “decisively bearish” turn in India’s parboiled market – an indicator of problems in trade with Africa, which is the largest purchaser of parboiled rice.
Jain said when India curbed rice exports, African countries signed long term contracts with alternative suppliers. “The market share got locked and India lost continuity in supply chains. It lost the trade’s trust too,” he said.
On the other hand, importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia imposed bans on imports to encourage domestic production. Also, Nigeria has not officially allowed imports of finished rice for nearly a decade.
“When India reopened exports in late 2024, regaining buyers has proved extremely difficult,” said Jain.
Additional woes
To add to Indian woes, Thai and Vietnamese currencies weakend, while Pakistan priced its produce aggressively in the African market, which shifted to cheaper origins. Indian exporters struggled to maintain margins, he said.
The Iran war compounded the situation due to higher freight rates and war surcharges.
Jain said exports to Benin dropped by 17 per cent, to Côte d’Ivoire by 23.5 per cent, Cameroon by 10 per cent, to Sierra Leone by 41 per cent and to Angola by 23 per cent.
With El Nino setting in, rice production could be affected in Asia. However, India’s 68.34 mt of rice stocks, including 28.7 mt in paddy form, could give it an edge in the global market, said Chandrasekaran.
Published on June 19, 2026
