Gold outlook for H2CY2026 by Kotak Securities
The pullback from the January peak near $5,600 is a corrective consolidation, not a trend reversal — after every major run-up, gold has historically corrected 30–40 per cent before its next leg higher. For the second half of 2026, we expect gold to trade broadly between $3,400 and $4,400 in spot dollar terms. On the downside, $3,900 is the first major support, followed by $3,600 and then $3,400. On the upside, gains are likely capped near $4,400; a sustained close above that level would turn the medium-to-long-term bias decisively positive and confirm the correction is complete. We would treat dips into the $3,600–$3,900 zone as accumulation opportunities rather than a reason to turn bearish.
Silver outlook for H2CY2026 by Kotak Securities
Silver remains the higher-beta play and is consolidating after its own sharp run toward $116. For the second half of 2026, we see a broad $60–$88 range. Supports lie at $70, then $64–$65, then $58–$60; resistance sits at $80, then $88–$90. A sustained close above $90 would re-open the path back toward the highs. Investors should expect wider swings than in gold, in either direction.
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Broader view on Gold, Silver
The structural view — 2027 and beyond. Once this correction completes, we expect the next secular bull leg to begin from 2027, led by a turn in the Fed cycle from hawkish to dovish. Gold’s post-correction bull runs have historically lasted two-to-three years and roughly doubled the price — from around the current cap area, that points to a long-term objective near $9,000. This is underpinned by a change of polarity: gold’s inflation-adjusted 1980 high, near $3,400–$3,600, capped the market for more than four decades and was decisively broken in 2025. That former ceiling now becomes a floor, and we do not expect prices to sustain below it. For silver, the parallel long-term objective is around $150 — broadly the inflation-adjusted equivalent of its 1980 peak of roughly $50. The structural driver is the “three Ds”: debasement, de-dollarization and de-globalization. A structural devaluation of the dollar is under way and should accelerate from 2027 as de-dollarization enters its mature phase, supporting both metals in dollar terms over the next three-to-four years. Views onses from Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities: (Disclaimer: This article is by Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities. Views expressed are his own.)
