The end of waiver on sanctions by the US on purchasing Russian crude oil (on water) is not expected to immediately halt shipments to India. However, refiners will have to recalibrate operations avoiding sanctioned entities and vessels, which will have a bearing on volume and costs, refiners and analysts said.
The 30-day waiver, which expired April 11, allowed delivery and sale of Russian crude oil loaded on tankers between March 12 and April 11.
Licence halt
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on early Thursday said, “We will not be renewing the general licence on Russian oil, and we will not be renewing the general licence on Iranian oil. That was oil that was on water prior to March 11. So all that has been used.”
Refiners, analysts and traders said the situation is “complicated and fluid” with too many variables playing simultaneously. Immediate impact is likely a tightening of supply. However, a severe crude crunch is not being anticipated “at this moment”.
Strategy reset
Besides, Indian refiners will have to yet again re-calibrate their sourcing strategy balancing availability, cost, logistics and compliance with various sanctions. The adjustment is more likely to be operational rather than structural. This will have a bearing on costs, both for purchasing oil and logistics.
“It’s unlikely India will completely halt Russian crude. It is not sanctioned. So, this means legal channels, which means higher costs. We also need to wait for more clarity on what Washington is planning next. There are too many variables playing out right now to point at a clear cut scenario. It’s a developing situation,” said a senior refining sector executive.
With geopolitical uncertainty, no immediate end to conflict in West Asia and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), there is a supply situation in Middle East Gulf region. This fuels more uncertainty. A clear cut answer will have to wait, said another refining sector executive.
A trade source opined that India has a three-day window to top up on Iranian crude oil as the US sanctions waiver ends on April 19. Roughly 90 million barrels of Iranian oil is estimated to be at sea.
Another refiner said that this could result in tighter supply conditions depending on how quickly alternative sources are secured. However, for India, the end of the Iranian sanctions waiver may require minor adjustments in sourcing strategy, considering it has not purchased any oil from Tehran since 2019.
Normal operations
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas said on Thursday, “All refineries are operating at high capacity with adequate crude inventories, while sufficient stocks of petrol and diesel are being maintained. Retail outlets across the country are operating normally.”
Published on April 16, 2026
