IT Stocks में भूचाल: Dot-Com Crash 2.0 या AI Revolution का Buying Opportunity? | Paisa Live

IT Stocks में भूचाल: Dot-Com Crash 2.0 या AI Revolution का Buying Opportunity? | Paisa Live


Share Market में IT stocks में लगातार गिरावट से Sensex और Nifty दबाव में हैं। Infosys, TCS और Wipro के shares 5–10% टूटे, जबकि New York में IBM में भी बिकवाली दिखी। वजह Tariffs नहीं, बल्कि AI driven Technological Shift मानी जा रही है। Anthropic के Claude 4 और Autonomous Coding Agents से Traditional IT Services model पर दबाव बढ़ा है। Time and Material आधारित model और legacy maintenance revenue को AI automation से चुनौती मिल रही है। हालांकि 2000 जैसा bubble नहीं, 2008 जैसी consolidation दिख रही है—AI अपनाने वाली कंपनियों के लिए यह long-term opportunity बन सकती है।             



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आज इंग्लैंड से हारते ही टी20 वर्ल्ड कप से बाहर हो जाएगा पाकिस्तान? जानें सेमीफाइनल का पूरा गणित

आज इंग्लैंड से हारते ही टी20 वर्ल्ड कप से बाहर हो जाएगा पाकिस्तान? जानें सेमीफाइनल का पूरा गणित


पाकिस्तान और इंग्लैंड के बीच सुपर-8 का मैच पल्लेकेले में खेला जा रहा है. यह विशेष रूप से पाक टीम के लिए बेहद महत्वपूर्ण मुकाबला है. पाकिस्तान ने टॉस जीतकर पहले बल्लेबाजी करने का निर्णय लिया, जो उसी पर भारी पड़ता दिखा. जोफ्रा आर्चर और लियाम डॉसन का पहला स्पेल पाक बल्लेबाजों पर भारी पड़ा. सैम अयूब और कप्तान सलमान आगा ने सस्ते में अपना विकेट खो दिया.

यह दोनों ही टीमों का सुपर-8 में दूसरा मैच है. यहां जान लीजिए अगर पाकिस्तान को इंग्लैंड के हाथों हार मिलती है, तो क्या वह सेमीफाइनल की दौड़ से पूरी तरह बाहर हो जाएगा. यहां समझ लीजिए पाकिस्तान के क्वालीफाई करने का पूरा गणित.

क्या पाकिस्तान हो जाएगा बाहर?

आज इंग्लैंड के खिलाफ हारने पर भी पाकिस्तान टी20 वर्ल्ड कप से बाहर नहीं होगा. आज हारने पर भी उसकी सेमीफाइनल में जाने की उम्मीद कायम रहेगी. आपको बता दें कि पाकिस्तान का अभी एक अंक है, जो उसे न्यूजीलैंड के साथ मैच रद्द होने के बाद मिला था. पाकिस्तान अगले मैच में श्रीलंका को हराकर हरा देता है तो उसके 3 अंक हो जाएंगे. मगर अगले मैच में केवल श्रीलंका पर जीत उसके सेमीफाइनल में पहुंचने के लिए काफी नहीं होगी.

ऐसे सेमीफाइनल में जाएगा पाकिस्तान

आज पाकिस्तान को इंग्लैंड के हाथों हार मिली तो उसे कामना करनी होगी कि न्यूजीलैंड अपने अगले दोनों मैच हार जाए और अपना अगला मैच श्रीलंका के विरुद्ध जीत जाए. इससे पाकिस्तान के कुल 3 अंक हॉ जाएंगे, जबकि श्रीलंका के 2 और न्यूजीलैंड एक अंक पर सिमट कर रह जाएगा. वहीं इंग्लैंड तीनों मैच जीतकर सेमीफाइनल में जाएगा, वहीं पाकिस्तान 3 अंकों के साथ दूसरे स्थान पर फिनिश करेगा.

यह भी पढ़ें:

भारत के खिलाफ मैच से पहले जिम्बाब्वे के हेड कोच ने दिया बड़ा बयान, जो कहा वो हर भारतीय को जानना चाहिए



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Broker’s call: ABB India (Reduce)

Broker’s call: ABB India (Reduce)


Target: ₹5,800

CMP: ₹6,053.95

ABB India reported 6 per cent y-o-y revenue growth to ₹3,560 crore in Q4-CY25, driven by healthy execution, balanced short- and long-cycle orders and higher exports, with all segments posting steady growth. However, margin remains under pressure as adjusted EBITDA fell 7 per cent y-o-y with a 230 bp contraction to 17.2 per cent, dragged by an adverse mix, higher commodity cost, forex volatility and increased imports content due to quality control (QCO) norms.

Order inflows rose 52 per cent y-o-y to ₹4,090 crore, while base orders grew 27 per cent y-o-y across business divisions. Order backlog comprises around 25-30 per cent, consisting of large orders and the rest made up of base orders. Data centres order comprise about 10-11 per cent of the overall order book. Electrification order inflows rose 43 per cent y-o-y, supported by a large data centre order. Process automation orders rose 34 per cent y–o-y while robotics and discrete automation order inflows rose 283 per cent y-o-y . Order backlog stood at ₹10,470 crore, up 6 per cent q-o-q.

Thus, we retain Reduce with a higher TP of ₹5,800 on 55x CY27E P/E, after factoring in slower-than-expected growth momentum in government and private capex. We expect an earnings CAGR of 16 per cent during CY25- 28E with an average ROE and ROCE of 22 per cent each during CY26-28E.

Published on February 24, 2026



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Indian Customs officials seize Chinese walnut cargoes faked as Afghan produce

Indian Customs officials seize Chinese walnut cargoes faked as Afghan produce


Indian Customs officials have confiscated at least 46 containers of Chinese walnuts faked by traders as Afghan produce. Containers from the  Comoros-flagged vessel WIV Reyfa have been unloaded and the carrier has departed the port.

“Customs have confiscated the containers that have Chinese walnuts in them. They drew a list of traders and investigated. All of them either said the consignments were not theirs or attempts have been made to mislead officials with their names,” said a Mumbai-based trade source.

If any importer turns up to claim the container, they will have to pay 100 per cent duty, besides facing proceedings for “misdeclaration”. “It is unlikely anyone will come forward to claim the consignments. Apart from paying penalties, they will have to face uneasy questions over their past shipments,” said a North-based trader.

How importers escape

If there is no claimant, the walnut consignments will be auctioned off. However, by the time they are auctioned, the quality would have deteriorated, said the Mumbai-based trade source.

The importers escape because they will have to go to the banks to present their bill of lading and make payments before going to Customs for clearance. 

“Even if the bill of lading shows their name, importers can claim that it was sent wrongly and don’t make any payment. As a result, the seller has to end up losing money,” said the New Delhi trade source.

WIV Reyfa, laden with 309 containers and claimed to have originated from Bandar Abbas Port in Iran, was held up by Customs officials for almost 3 weeks. Customs officials acted on “specific information” on the misdeclaration of origin received by the Department of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) on February 2.  

CIU circular

A circular issued by the Customs Intelligence Unit (CIU) on February 17 said one person was arrested, and investigations revealed ₹50 crore in duty evasion.  Walnuts from countries such as China, the US and Chile are falsely labelled as Afghan produce to claim zero duty benefits under the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). 

WIV Reyfa carried consignments for traders in Delhi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad besides Mumbai. On the other hand, Mumbai dryfruit traders urged the Customs authorities to release Afghan-origin products first. 

The Afghanistan consulate in Mumbai, too, approached the Customs department for the release of consignments that were not carrying Chinese walnuts. Some traders in New Delhi appealed to the Centre to help them get their consignments. 

100% import duty

During Covid, consignments of unauthorised peas were detained at the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust. While the Bombay High Court allowed their imports, the Supreme Court quashed the high court ruling. However, the apex court allowed importers to re-export provided they paid the penalties to the Customs Department, according to the New Delhi source. 

Walnuts from other origins, such as the US, have better kernel yield. Every kg of domestic walnut-in-shell yields 350 gm of kernels. In the case of the US or other countries, the yield is 450-500 gm. 

But India currently imposes a 100 per cent Customs duty on walnut imports to protect domestic growers, particularly in Kashmir. So, unscrupulous traders bring walnuts from other countries, claiming to be from Afghanistan.

One of the modi operandi is that some traders purchase walnuts that would have been imported into one of the Gulf ports. Then, these are shipped to ports such as Bandar Abbas to claim zero-duty imports under SAFTA.

Traders said documents relating to the shipments are submitted manually, and hence, it is easy to “manipulate” the origin of a product.

Published on February 24, 2026



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Banks up scrutiny on large value branch transaction post IDFC First Bank fiasco

Banks up scrutiny on large value branch transaction post IDFC First Bank fiasco


Mid and small sized lenders may see short term impact in terms of government entities parking their money with State-owned lenders
| Photo Credit:
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Lenders have raised scrutiny over branch generated, high-value cheque based transactions, after IDFC First Bank reported a material ₹590 crore fraud from its single Chandigrah branch last week, senior bankers say.

“We plan to put in an explicit system for high-value transactions. For branch-based transactions exceeding a threshold, we will require explicit confirmation via a verified digital channel or app. We are also going to use AI. Currently, a branch manager physically clears cheques, but we will implement a system where AI performs initial checking followed by human confirmation to better handle exceptions. This was a physical, manual cheque fraud—the most traditional type. We will improvise and put new controls in place,” said V Vaidyanathan, MD & CEO, IDFC First Bank.

A senior private sector banker said that following the IDFC First Bank disclosure, all banks are reviewing and checking their internal controls, especially for high value transactions. “On the branch level, we are reviewing and upgrading maker-checker system, scrutinising repeat transactions extensively and adding various layers of authentication apart from confirmation call to ensure authenticity of transaction,” a senior private sector banker said.

Industry impact

Sources said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is understood to be comfortable with IDFC First Bank management’s prompt disclosures and corrective actions that they took post occurrence of fraud, and the central bank is unlikely to bring in any policy change for branch led operation. The regulator, however, may engage with the bank bilaterally to identify the gaps and persons accountable for the fraud.

Another senior banker noted that mid and small sized lenders may see short term impact in terms of government entities parking their money with State-owned lenders, the trend may not sustain for a longer period as public sector banks, too, have faced material frauds in the past and are relatively less agile than private banks on technology infrastructure.

“The IDFC First Bank fraud, it appears, occurred due to connivance between bank employees, third party broker and possibly Haryana state government department officials. Banks can build all the processes, but when employees act in connivance with third party individuals, it becomes tough to spot frauds,” they said.

The banker noted that earlier the banking industry witnessed majority frauds on advances side, but over the last five years, frauds on the deposit side has increased. These include mule accounts, digital frauds, micro-deposit schemes fraud, cheque fraud, account takeover fraud, among others.

“A customer used to trust her banker as much as her doctor. But over last 10-15 years period, bankers have lost that trust. Some engage in quick money making schemes, and often loss money trading in risky instruments like F&O. Under severe debt stress, they engage in fraudulent practises. Sometimes they may act in connivance with private individuals as was seen in IDFC’s case and sometimes they may move money from dormant accounts,” the banker said.

Published on February 24, 2026



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