Indian markets are set for a weak opening on Thursday, with Gift Nifty indicating a 180-point gap-down for the Nifty amid mixed global cues.

Domestic markets are expected to open on a weak note amid mixed global cues. Gift Nifty at 23,255 indicates a gap-down opening of around 180 points for the Nifty.

However, Asian stocks were up in early trading on Thursday, albeit marginally, with lacklustre participation ahead of the holiday. Markets are closed on Friday due to Good Friday, and some markets, such as Taiwan, are closed today as well.

Domestic markets are expected to remain volatile, and buying may emerge in the second half, especially from foreign portfolio investors, who have become aggressive buyers in the last few days. However, the US’s signal on tariff and rate fronts will influence global investors.

Vinay Paharia, CIO, PGIM India Mutual Fund, said: “We are seeing a lot of turmoil and volatility on multiple global fronts. Trade relations and tariff rates are being redrawn, supply chain and sourcing locations are being reconsidered and there is a likelihood of deglobalisation. The above may not be very conducive to the economies and be inflationary in nature for certain parts of the world in general if implemented in earnest.”

In such a scenario, it is better to focus on domestic businesses rather than export-focused ones in terms of portfolio construction, he said. Domestic themes such as consumption, financials, and healthcare (ex-exports) offer more structural and long-term growth visibility Vs. sectors and stocks that are global events-dependent and/or policy-dependent, he further said. 

The India story of double-digit nominal GDP growth and India Inc. profitability is still very much plausible (though there has been some near-term slowdown) for the longer term, and it is better to play this story through domestic structural themes vs cyclical themes, Paharia said, adding that “We expect polarised performance from the markets. We expect growth and quality buckets to outperform while the low growth/quality bucket to underperform and give away the excesses which were built in FY24.”

Derivative data reflects a guarded sentiment with a slightly bearish bias. 

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said: “Call writers retained the upper hand, outpacing put writing and maintaining a grip on upside levels. The 24,000 strike saw substantial call writing, with open interest swelling to 1.12 crore contracts, marking it as a formidable resistance zone. On the flip side, aggressive put writing at the 23,000 strike (93.42 lakh contracts) reflects bullish confidence at lower levels. While bulls are gradually accumulating positions, clear conviction is still in the making.”

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) edged up from 0.81 to 0.84, indicating a neutral-to-cautious tone among market participants, he added.

He further said that India VIX, the market’s volatility barometer, eased by 1.61% to 15.86, reflecting cooling nerves around geopolitical risks. However, with VIX still above the critical 15 handle, traders should expect intraday whipsaws, sharp reversals, and heightened volatility, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management in the current environment.

Published on April 17, 2025