RBI may announce 25 bps rate cut in August to boost credit growth ahead of Diwali: SBI Report

RBI may announce 25 bps rate cut in August to boost credit growth ahead of Diwali: SBI Report


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to announce a 25 basis points (bps) repo rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled from August 5 to 7, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI).

The report said a frontloaded rate cut in August could bring an “early Diwali” by boosting credit growth, especially as the festive season in FY26 is also frontloaded. It added that past data show a clear trend, any repo rate cut ahead of Diwali results in higher credit growth during the festive period.

It stated, “We expect RBI to continue frontloading with a 25 bps cut in August policy.” Citing an example, the report noted that a 25 bps repo rate cut in August 2017 led to an incremental credit growth of ₹1,956 billion by the end of Diwali, with almost 30 per cent of this in personal loans. It added that Diwali, being one of the biggest festivals in India, sees higher consumer spending, and a low-interest rate environment before Diwali helps improve credit demand.”

Empirical evidence suggests a strong pick up in credit growth whenever festive season has been early and has been preceded with a rate cut,” the report added.

The report emphasised that with inflation now well within the RBI’s target band for several months, continuing with a restrictive policy stance may lead to output losses, which are hard to reverse. It said monetary policy works with a lag, and delaying a rate cut until inflation drops further or growth slows more visibly may cause deeper and long-lasting damage to the economy.

“The marginal benefit of waiting is low, while the cost of inaction in terms of forgone output, investment sentiment is likely to be significant,” the report said. The report further explained that central banks operate with a dual mandate of price stability and output stabilization.

Referring to the standard Quadratic Loss Function, it warned against making a Type II error by not cutting rates now, assuming low inflation is temporary. In reality, inflation may stay low, and the output gap could worsen. It added that tariff uncertainties, GDP growth, CPI numbers for FY27, and even the festive season in FY26 are all being frontloaded.

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Published on August 2, 2025



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Crude oil prices may surge to  per barrel amid fresh US-Russia tensions: Experts

Crude oil prices may surge to $80 per barrel amid fresh US-Russia tensions: Experts


Brent crude oil prices are expected to rise to $80 per barrel in the coming months as tensions between the United States and Russia threaten to disrupt the global oil supply chain, highlighted oil market experts in conversation with ANI.

Oil prices may face upward pressure as geopolitical risks increase. NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, said, “Brent Oil (Oct’25) from $72.07 has a short-term target of $76. Year end 2025 could reach $80-82. Downside support and cap at $69. US President Donald Trump has given Russia a deadline of 10-12 days to end the war in Ukraine, failing which it runs a risk of additional sanctions and secondary tariffs of 100 per cent on countries trading with Russia, which would push the oil prices higher.

“This move by US President Trump could further increase oil prices, as countries dependent on Russian crude would face a difficult choice between buying cheaper oil and facing heavy export tariffs to the US. For WTI Crude Oil (Sep’25), experts expect a short-term target of $73 from the current level of $69.65. The price could rise to $76-79 by the end of 2025, while the downside support is at $65.

Experts said such developments could disrupt the global oil market. A supply shock may result from reduced spare production capacity, which would likely push oil prices higher through 2026. The dilemma remains that President Trump wants lower oil prices, but a quick increase in US oil production is not possible, as it involves infrastructure, labour, and investment. Energy expert Narendra Taneja told ANI, “Russia exports 5 million barrels of oil into the global (oil) supply system every day. Crude oil prices would rise significantly – $100 to 120 per barrel, if not more – if the Russian oil is forced out of the global supply chains”.

He also added, “If Russian oil stops flowing into Indian refineries, prices would rise globally for sure. There would be no shortage of oil in India because our refiners import from 40 different countries, but balancing the price for consumers would be a challenge.” Even if Saudi Arabia and select OPEC countries step in to fill the supply gap, it will take time, adding to short-term price pressure. The oil market could shift into a deficit situation even if OPEC+ does not announce further production cuts.

Meanwhile, the recent US-EU trade deal has provided some support to the market, but geopolitical tensions persist and continue to add upside risks. The market is also closely watching US inventory levels and the upcoming interest rate decision, with a stronger US dollar keeping some pressure on oil prices.The extended US-China trade truce has also supported market sentiment, but risks remain elevated in the oil sector.

Published on August 2, 2025



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ARCIL plans IPO comprising OFS by Avenue India Resurgence, SBI and other investors

ARCIL plans IPO comprising OFS by Avenue India Resurgence, SBI and other investors


Offer for sale to comprise of up to 105,463,892 equity shares of face value of ₹10 each.

Offer for sale to comprise of up to 105,463,892 equity shares of face value of ₹10 each.

Asset Reconstruction Company (India) Ltd is planning an initial public offering (IPO) comprising an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 105,463,892 equity shares of face value of ₹10 each. This will be the first IPO by an asset reconstruction company (ARC).

The OFS comprises of up to 68,739,034 equity shares of face value of ₹10 each by Avenue India Resurgence Pte Ltd, up to 19,445,000 shares by State Bank of India, up to 16,244,858 shares by Lathe Investment Pte Limited and up to 1,035,000 shares by Federal Bank, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) filed by India’s first asset reconstruction company (ARC) with market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).

Established in 2002, Asset Reconstruction Company (India) Limited (ARCIL) was the second largest in terms of assets under management (AUM) at ₹15,230 crore and had the second highest net worth among private ARCs in India at ₹2462.511 crores.

ARCIL is promoted by Avenue India Resurgence Pte Ltd (an affiliate of Avenue Capital Group) and the State Bank of India, which are also identified as sponsors of the Company under the SARFAESI Act.

The ARC operates across three business verticals including corporate loans, SME and other loans, and retail loans classifying acquired stressed assets based on internally assessed resolution mechanism. It primarily derives its revenue from management fees/ trusteeship fees, portfolio recovery fees, income from investments and write backs.

During fiscals 2025, 2024 and 2023, the company acquired ₹3,976 crore, ₹2,069 crore and ₹4,289 crore of stressed assets, respectively, and the AUM was ₹16,853 crore as of March 31, 2025, ₹15,230 crore as of March 31, 2024, and ₹16,223.50 crore as of March 31, 2023.

For the year ended 31 March 2025, ARCIL’s revenue from operations stood at ₹596 crore, total income stood at ₹623 crore, PAT stood at ₹355 crore and PAT margin stood at 57 per cent.

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Russian oil has never been sanctioned; instead, it was subjected to a G7/EU price-cap mechanism designed to limit revenue while ensuring global supplies continued to flow. 
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Published on August 2, 2025



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Indian oil refiners continue to source oil from Russia

Indian oil refiners continue to source oil from Russia


Russian oil has never been sanctioned; instead, it was subjected to a G7/EU price-cap mechanism designed to limit revenue while ensuring global supplies continued to flow. 

Russian oil has never been sanctioned; instead, it was subjected to a G7/EU price-cap mechanism designed to limit revenue while ensuring global supplies continued to flow. 

Indian oil refiners continue to source oil from Russian suppliers, sources told ANI.

Their supply decisions are guided by price, grade of crude, inventories, logistics and other economic factors, the sources revealed.

Providing context for India’s decision to continue sourcing oil from Russian suppliers, sources said that Russia, the world’s second-largest crude oil producer with an output of around 9.5 mb/d (nearly 10 per cent of global demand), is also the second-largest exporter, shipping about 4.5 mb/d of crude and 2.3 mb/d of refined products. Fears of Russian oil being pushed out of the market and the consequent dislocation of traditional trade flows drove dated Brent crude prices to soar to US $137 per barrel in March 2022.

“In this challenging environment, India, as the world’s third-largest energy consumer with 85 per cent crude oil import dependence, strategically adapted its sourcing to secure affordable energy while fully adhering to international norms,” added sources.

Earlier, United States President Donald Trump on Friday (local time) claimed that India may cease purchasing Russian oil, calling it “a good step” if confirmed, while India has defended its sovereign right to conduct energy policy based on national interest. Earlier on July 31, Reuters reported, citing its sources, that Indian state-owned refineries suspended Russian oil purchases last week amid threats of tariffs from US President Donald Trump and narrowing price discounts.

Providing further historical context to its decision of sourcing Russian Oil, sources told ANI that Russian oil has never been sanctioned; instead, it was subjected to a G7/EU price-cap mechanism designed to limit revenue while ensuring global supplies continued to flow. India acted as a responsible global energy actor, ensuring markets remain liquid and prices stable. India’s purchases have remained fully legitimate and within the framework of international norms.

“Had India not absorbed discounted Russian crude combined with OPEC+ production cuts of 5.86 mb/d, global oil prices could have surged well beyond the March 2022 peak of US$137/bbl, intensifying inflationary pressures worldwide,” added sources to ANI.

It is also pertinent to note that Russian oil has never been sanctioned and it is still not sanctioned by either US or EU. Indian OMCs have not been buying Iranian or Venezuelan crude which is actually sanctioned by US. OMCs have always complied with the price cap of $60 for Russian oil recommended by the US. Recently EU has recommended a price cap of $47.6 dollars for Russian crude which will be enforced from September.

Commenting on European Union’s import of Russian origin liquified natural gas (LNG) during this period, sources added, “EU was the largest importer of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) during this period, buying 51 per cent of Russia’s LNG exports, followed by China at 21 per cent and Japan at 18 per cent. Similarly, for pipeline gas, the EU remained the top buyer with a 37 per cent share, followed by China (30 per cent) and Turkey (27 per cent).”

Sources speaking to ANI rebutted media reports of India halting purchase of Russian Oil and after US President’s latest comment echoing the claim in the media report.

US President Trump made remarks while answering an ANI question, on whether he had a number in mind for the penalties on India and if he was going to speak with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “I understand that India is no longer going to be buying oil from Russia. That’s what I heard, I don’t know if that’s right or not. That is a good step. We will see what happens…”

Backing their decision to continue sourcing Russian Oil, sources added that India’s energy decisions have been guided by national interest but have also contributed positively to global energy stability. India’s pragmatic approach kept oil flowing, prices stable and markets balanced, while fully respecting international frameworks.

Published on August 2, 2025



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Commodity options strategies for easing participation of hedgers and small stakeholders

Commodity options strategies for easing participation of hedgers and small stakeholders


India’s commodity derivatives market has undergone a remarkable transformation, evolving from ancient barter systems to a sophisticated, forward contracting between producers and merchants, and subsequently to structured Futures markets with clearing houses that ensure the creditworthiness of transactions. The definition of contracts has progressed from basic forwards to complex options and structured products, enabling originators and intermediaries to mitigate risks beyond their primary expertise.

Derivatives deal with multi-economic functions and are complex and controversial; however, they are an integral part of the financial system. Frequently, the variables driving derivatives are the prices of market-traded assets. For instance, a bond option is a derivative whose value hinges on the price of a bond. However, derivatives are not limited to financial assets; they can derive their value from virtually any variable, such as the price of crude oil or the wind speed at a particular location. The underlying assets for derivatives can include foreign exchange, interest rates, equities, commodities, and credit.

With an impressive 20 per cent annual growth rate, the Indian commodity market has shifted from being agriculture-dominated to seeing greater participation in bullion, energy, and metals trading, mirroring India’s industrial development and reflecting India’s dual identity as both an agrarian economy and a rapidly industrialising one. Behind the numbers and growth rates lies a fascinating tale of farmers, traders, and businesses adapting age-old practices to technology-driven finance.

China expanding rapidly

The annual turnover of commodity forwards is roughly ₹5-10 lakh crore in India, whereas the commodity futures and options segment is about ₹550-600 lakh crore. The turnover is driven by the actions of diverse value chain participants (VCPs), who fulfill roles as hedgers, arbitrageurs, or traders. These VCPs may serve as producers, manufacturers, processors, and consumers, and each player in the value chain leverages commodity futures and options to their benefit; for instance, farmers use futures and options to secure pricing, while firms hedge against raw material costs.

Globally, leading exchanges, such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), London Metal Exchange (LME), and Shanghai Futures Exchange, have jointly witnessed annual trading volumes exceeding $100 trillion, with China’s markets expanding rapidly due to commodity-driven industrialisation.

As the commodity market accelerates domestically and globally, businesses throughout the value chain – from miners to manufacturers face increasing pressure to manage their exposure to volatile prices. This reality has made risk management tools not just useful, but essential for survival in today’s markets. Thus, Commodity options serve as a versatile and cost-effective risk management tool, enabling hedgers and small stakeholders to navigate price volatility without excessive capital requirements. Unlike futures contracts that demand high margins and carry unlimited risk, options limit potential losses to their holders to the premium paid, making them particularly suitable for farmers, small traders, and manufacturers seeking affordable hedging solutions.

Offering lifeline

For small traders, options offer a lifeline, allowing hedging with minimal capital. Strategies like bull call spreads (buying a call option at a specific strike while also selling the same number of calls of the same asset at a higher strike price) and iron condors (two calls and two puts with different strike prices) help navigate volatility without taking excessive risk. Those expecting a moderate increase in price can deploy the bull call spread, a low-capital strategy that profits from upward moves while defining maximum risk.

For neutral market conditions where prices are expected to remain range-bound, the iron condor strategy allows traders to benefit from low volatility by selling both out-of-the-money calls and puts while limiting risk with defined wings. Suppose you’re a farmer watching grain prices move sideways for weeks, or a small jeweler seeing gold trade in a tight range. Instead of taking big risks, these strategies let you earn reasonable gains from market stability while keeping your potential losses known. Similarly, the butterfly spread (four options contracts with three different strike prices) enables precise bets on price stability, offering high reward potential with very low risk if the commodity stays near a target price at expiration.

By implementing these solutions and understanding the full spectrum of available strategies, commodity market participants can significantly enhance their risk management capabilities and market participation. The key lies in matching the appropriate strategy to specific market expectations and risk tolerance, creating a more inclusive and efficient marketplace for all participants.

Despite these advantages, challenges such as limited liquidity, lack of awareness, and margin requirements hinder broader adoption among farmers and other stakeholders. To address these barriers, exchanges and regulators should promote financial literacy programmes, introduce micro-sized contracts, and incentivize market makers to improve liquidity. By simplifying these strategies and enhancing market accessibility, commodity options can become an indispensable tool for hedgers and small traders, fostering greater participation and stability in the commodity markets.

Dr Arora is Associate Professor & Area Chair (Finance) & Dr Bhatia is Professor (Finance) and Dean-Executive Education, Birla Institute of Management Technology (BIMTECH) Greater Noida

Published on August 2, 2025



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PM Modi to visit Varanasi today, launch several development projects

PM Modi to visit Varanasi today, launch several development projects


Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi
| Photo Credit:
ANI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit his parliamentary constituency Varanasi on Saturday, and launch and lay the foundation for several development projects worth around ₹2,200 crore.

“For my family members in Kashi, tomorrow, August 2, is a very special day. Around 11 in the morning, I will inaugurate and lay the foundation stone for several projects related to education, health, sports, tourism, and connectivity. On this occasion, I will also have the privilege of releasing the 20th installment of PM-KISAN,” Modi posted on X on Friday.

Security arrangements have been tightened in Varanasi in view of VVIP movement in the city, with a multi-layered deployment of personnel along the routes to be taken by the prime minister, officials said.

According to an official statement, Modi will lay the foundation and inaugurate multiple development projects worth around ₹2,200 crore.

The projects cater to multiple sectors — infrastructure, education, healthcare, tourism, urban development, and cultural heritage, among others.

The prime minister will lay the foundation for various works under the Smart Distribution Project and undergrounding of electrical infrastructure in his home constituency.

Modi is also scheduled to address a public meeting at Banauli (Kalika Dham) village in the Sevapuri Assembly segment.

Published on August 2, 2025



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