यूएस-ईरान वॉर के भारत के ऊपर हो रहे ये 5 बड़े साइड इफैक्ट्स, अब आगे क्या होगा?

यूएस-ईरान वॉर के भारत के ऊपर हो रहे ये 5 बड़े साइड इफैक्ट्स, अब आगे क्या होगा?


Middle East Tensions: पश्चिम एशिया में बढ़ते युद्ध के कारण वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था में अनिश्चितता बढ़ गई है. Iran और United States के बीच बढ़ते हमलों ने ऊर्जा बाजार, शेयर बाजार और करेंसी मार्केट पर दबाव डाल दिया है. ऐसे में सवाल उठ रहा है कि इस तनाव का India की अर्थव्यवस्था पर क्या असर पड़ सकता है. आइए जानते हैं भारत पर पड़ने वाले 5 बड़े प्रभाव-

1. ऊर्जा कीमतों में उछाल की आशंका रेटिंग एजेंसी Moody’s ने चेतावनी दी है कि अगर ईरान युद्ध लंबा खिंचता है तो ऊर्जा बाजार में बड़ा झटका लग सकता है. इससे Crude Oil और Liquefied Natural Gas की कीमतों में भारी उछाल आने की संभावना है. भारत अपनी ऊर्जा जरूरतों का बड़ा हिस्सा आयात करता है, इसलिए इसका सीधा असर देश की अर्थव्यवस्था पर पड़ सकता है.

2. महंगाई और रुपये पर दबाव अगर तेल और एलएनजी महंगे होते हैं तो भारत में महंगाई बढ़ना तय माना जा रहा है. इससे Indian Rupee कमजोर हो सकता है. इसके अलावा खाड़ी देशों से होने वाले ऊर्जा आयात में बाधा आने से ईंधन, गैस और ट्रांसपोर्ट लागत बढ़ सकती है, जिससे आम लोगों की जेब पर असर पड़ेगा.

3. चालू खाते और राजकोषीय संतुलन पर असर Moody’s के अनुसार अगर रुपया कमजोर होता है और ऊर्जा आयात महंगा हो जाता है तो भारत का चालू खाता घाटा बढ़ सकता है. इससे सरकार के लिए राजकोषीय संतुलन बनाए रखना और भी मुश्किल हो जाएगा. साथ ही आर्थिक वृद्धि पर भी दबाव पड़ सकता है.

4. शेयर बाजार में भारी उतार-चढ़ाव पश्चिम एशिया संकट का असर भारतीय शेयर बाजार पर भी दिख रहा है. शुक्रवार को BSE Sensex 1,097 अंक गिरकर 78,918.90 पर बंद हुआ, जबकि Nifty 50 315 अंक टूटकर बंद हुआ. विशेषज्ञों का कहना है कि कच्चे तेल की बढ़ती कीमतों और विदेशी निवेशकों की बिकवाली से बाजार पर दबाव बढ़ गया है.

5. डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया कमजोर तेल की कीमतों में उछाल और विदेशी पूंजी की निकासी के कारण Indian Rupee भी दबाव में है. शुक्रवार को रुपया United States Dollar के मुकाबले छह पैसे गिरकर 91.70 (अस्थायी) पर बंद हुआ. हालांकि अमेरिकी प्रशासन ने भारतीय रिफाइनरियों को 30 दिन तक रूसी तेल खरीदने की अनुमति दी है, जिससे रुपये की गिरावट पर कुछ हद तक रोक लगी है. यानी पश्चिम एशिया में जारी संघर्ष अगर लंबा चलता है तो इसका असर सिर्फ तेल बाजार तक सीमित नहीं रहेगा, बल्कि महंगाई, शेयर बाजार, रुपया और भारत की आर्थिक स्थिरता तक दिखाई दे सकता है.

ये भी पढ़ें: ईरान वॉर से उछले क्रूड ऑयल के दाम के बीच गिरकर बंद सेंसेक्स-निफ्टी, एक साल में सबसे खराब परफॉर्मेंस



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Banking stocks slide 2%, ICICI Bank, PNB, SBI, HDFC among top losers. Here's why

Banking stocks slide 2%, ICICI Bank, PNB, SBI, HDFC among top losers. Here's why


Shares of major lenders including ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and IndusInd Bank fell around 2–3 per cent each.
| Photo Credit:
iStockphoto

Banking and financial stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, dragging the Bank Nifty down about 2 per cent as broad-based selling gripped the sector. All constituents of the index settled in the red, as concerns about rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and foreign fund outflows also dampened sentiment.

All these would disrupt or delay the current monetary easing cycle, creating uncertainty for banks. “Additionally, the RBI’s proposed regulations on loan-linked insurance sales have added to the pressure,” Vinod Nair, Head of research, Geojit Investments, said. Market experts believe that this move could reduce banks’ fee-based income and weigh on overall profitability.

Heavy banking sell-off

ICICI Bank emerged as the biggest laggard within the sector, leading the decline as selling pressure intensified across large private and public sector lenders. Punjab National Bank, State Bank of India, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda and IndusInd Bank also ended lower, posting losses of around 2–3 per cent each as the broader banking pack saw uniform weakness.

PSU Bank, a private bank and financial indexes also shed 2 per cent.

Profit booking phase

According to Nitant Darekar, Research Analyst at Bonanza, the fall largely reflects investors locking in gains after the sector’s strong performance over the past year, even as global developments heightened nervousness.

“Banking stocks have been under pressure for the past few sessions and we believe it is a routine profit booking taking place after a good run that we saw in the index itself in the past one year or so. However, we believe that the immediate reaction can be the US-Israel-Iran conflict that has resulted into increasing crude oil prices with India importing nearly 80-85 per cent.”

Crude, rupee worries

This is important because it can increase our import costs, and with the further weakening of the rupee, inflation could rise, which could push the RBI to increase rates and thus affect banks’ profits due to slower loan growth, Darekar stated.

We also have FII’s holding meaningful exposure in BFSIs, and we have already seen the outflows. Now, with global funds continuing to reduce exposure because of geopolitical events, the sector is coming into focus, he further said.

Technical view

On the technical front, the Bank Nifty has also breached the key support level of 58,000. The structural story, however, remains intact, backed by macro-economic growth, a pick-up in credit growth and digital expansion, the analyst added.

Long-term outlook intact

Market participants also pointed to continued foreign institutional investor outflows from financial stocks, which typically hold significant weight in global portfolios. Analysts note that while near-term volatility may persist due to geopolitical developments and technical weakness, the long-term outlook for the banking sector remains supported by steady economic growth, improving credit demand and ongoing digital transformation across the industry.

Published on March 6, 2026



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Broker’s Call: Hyundai Motor India (Reduce)

Broker’s Call: Hyundai Motor India (Reduce)


Target: ₹1,904

CMP: ₹2,089.35

Hyundai Motor India Q3FY26 EBITDA rose 8 per cent year on year but fell 17 per cent quarter on quarter to ₹2,020 crore, a sharp miss vs our estimate (13 per cent)/Bloomberg consensus estimate (-17 per cent).

The management expects strong wholesales going ahead, supported by GST-led demand tailwinds and optimal dealer inventory level below four weeks in January 2026 (vs five weeks typically) as against two-three weeks as of end-December 2025. The company gave guidance of 5-6 per cent domestic car industry growth in FY27F. Exports continue to maintain their strong momentum and are likely to exceed earlier guidance of 7-8 per cent growth. A price hike was implemented on January 1, 2026, to pass on the cost increase to customers.

The continued underperformance in domestic market volume recovery is an area of concern, leading to volume cut of 1-2 per cent for FY26F-28F. The weakness in EBITDA margin from new plant costs led to our 1-3 per cent EBITDA cut for FY26F-28F. Lower-than-expected depreciation and interest costs, limits our EPS cut to 1-2 per cent.

Despite refreshed new products launched recently and commissioning of Pune plant, the company’s participation is domestic industry volume recovery post GST rate cut is an area of concern. With EPS cuts, we roll forward and reduce our target P/E to 22x, from 24x earlier, leading to a lower target price of ₹1,904 vs ₹2,023 earlier. The current rich valuation led us to retain our REDUCE rating on the stock.

Published on March 6, 2026



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Sensex, Nifty log worst weekly fall in over a year as war worries bog down markets

Sensex, Nifty log worst weekly fall in over a year as war worries bog down markets


On Friday, the Nifty closed at 24,450.45, down 315.45 points or 1.27%, while the Sensex settled at 78,918.90, falling 1,097 points or 1.37%.

Benchmark indices recorded their steepest weekly decline in more than a year, with the Nifty 50 tumbling 2.9 per cent and the Sensex shedding 2,370 points over the week, as an escalating US–Iran conflict roiled global markets and sent crude oil prices surging. On Friday, the Nifty closed at 24,450.45, down 315.45 points or 1.27 per cent, while the Sensex settled at 78,918.90, falling 1,097 points or 1.37 per cent.

The sell-off was triggered by mounting geopolitical tensions in West Asia, where shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz came to a near halt as the US–Iran conflict deepened. Brent crude surged above $85 per barrel, while US crude spiked 8.5 per cent to $81 — its largest single-day jump since 2020. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, noted that “concerns intensified after shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz saw a near halt… raising fears of disruptions to global oil supplies.”

India VIX, the market’s fear gauge, surged over 11 per cent on Friday, closing at 19.88, signalling a sharp rise in investor anxiety. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, cautioned that “a sustained rise in oil prices could weigh on investor sentiment and adversely affect India’s twin deficits, inflation trajectory, and the RBI’s monetary stance.”

Amid supply concerns, the US administration granted India a temporary window to continue importing Russian crude, offering partial relief. However, broader market sentiment remained fragile, with 2,396 stocks declining against 1,812 advancing on the BSE. A total of 258 stocks hit 52-week lows, compared to just 69 touching fresh 52-week highs.

Banks drop

Sectoral performance was largely negative. PSU Banks bore the brunt of the weekly sell-off, declining 6.5 per cent, while the India Tourism index lost 5.88 per cent. Friday saw the Nifty Private Bank index fall 2.3 per cent, Nifty Financial Services decline 2.1 per cent, and Nifty PSU Bank drop 2 per cent, after the RBI proposed tighter norms on the bundling of insurance products with bank loans. On the other hand, the Defence index surged 4.85 per cent for the week, rising 2.8 per cent on Friday alone, as geopolitical tensions fuelled expectations of higher defence spending.

Among Nifty 50 gainers on Friday, BEL led with a 2.52 per cent rise to ₹469.60, followed by ONGC (+1.28 per cent to ₹279.90), Reliance Industries (+1.27 per cent to ₹1,407), NTPC (+0.82 per cent to ₹381.15), and Hindalco (+0.59 per cent to ₹960.60). On the losing side, ICICI Bank was the biggest decliner, falling 3.13 per cent to ₹1,315.10, followed by Eternal (-2.96 per cent to ₹233.04), Shriram Finance (-2.77 per cent to ₹1,010.70), SBI (-2.54 per cent to ₹1,139.80), and Axis Bank (-2.54 per cent to ₹1,314.90).

The rupee weakened by ₹0.13 to close at 91.71 against the dollar. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said “higher oil prices increase India’s import bill, which tends to weigh on the rupee,” adding that the currency could face continued downside pressure, with a trading range of 91.25–92.50 expected in the near term. Gold traded sideways between ₹1,59,500 and ₹1,60,000, with CME gold near the $5,100 level, as markets awaited US Non-Farm Payrolls data. Trivedi flagged “support near ₹1,58,000, resistance near ₹1,62,000.”

Outlook ahead

Looking ahead, the market outlook remains cautious to negative. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, warned that “the index remains below the previous swing low, indicating continued bearishness,” with the Nifty potentially sliding toward 24,000 or lower. “Until 25,000 is crossed decisively, the trend is likely to favour a sell-on-rise strategy,” he added.

Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities, pegged immediate Nifty support at 24,300–24,000 and resistance at 24,500, while for Bank Nifty, the 200-day SMA at 57,500 remains a key support, below which 56,800–56,500 could come into play. Weekend geopolitical developments will be the dominant factor shaping Monday’s market open.

Published on March 6, 2026



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Broker’s Call: LT Foods (Buy)

Broker’s Call: LT Foods (Buy)


Target: ₹518

CMP: ₹393.00

LT Foods (LTF) is a global consumer specialty company with an explicit focus on basmati rice, organic foods and ready-to-eat/cook (RTE/RTC) products. It has a presence in over 80 countries with significant regional exposure in the US, Europe, West Asia, etc.

Revenue grew 24 per cent year on year (normalised growth at 8 per cent excluding US tariff and Golden Star revenue) for Q3FY26, led by broad-based strength across geographies despite the US tariff headwind.

Gross margin improved 70 bps to 34.2 per cent, while EBITDA margin grew only 20 bps to 11.2 per cent.

LTF targets ₹1,000 crore each from the recently set-up manufacturing facility in the UK and the expanded distribution in Saudi Arabia in the next five years.

EBITDA margin is expected to improve as the company scales up its value-added segments. The RTC/RTE segment is projected to grow at about 35 per cent and is likely to achieve break-even at around ₹400 crore in revenue by FY27 (₹200 crore in FY25).

The strong focus on regional and product diversification is expected to support healthy earnings growth and re-rating. The US tariff has been reduced to 18 per cent, which will aid demand; however, a short-term margin impact is expected due to the high-cost inventory in the US. Currently, LTF has only less than 9 per cent exposure to West Asia. We value the stock at 17x on FY28 EPS (three-year average 17x) to arrive at a target price of ₹518 and recommend BUY due to healthy volume outlook.

Published on March 6, 2026



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Reliance fuel tankers reroute to Asia as Iran war tightens supply and boosts margins

Reliance fuel tankers reroute to Asia as Iran war tightens supply and boosts margins


Two fuel tankers loaded at Reliance Industries’ massive refinery complex in Jamnagar have rerouted from Europe to Asia as refiners capitalise on stronger Asian fuel margins during the ongoing Iran conflict. (A file photo)

Two tankers loaded with
fuel from Reliance Industries in India that were headed to
Europe made u-turns and ​are now bound for Asia, according to two
trade sources and shiptracking data, as ‌the refiner capitalises
on firm Asian margins with the Iran ​war squeezing supply.

The Advantage Life, which loaded around 100,000 ⁠metric tons
(745,000 barrels) of diesel at Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery on
February 28, is currently bound for Singapore, according to
Kpler, LSEG data and two trade sources.

The Navig8 ‌Honor, which is carrying around 75,000 tons
(591,000 barrels) of jet fuel and was initially headed to
West-of-Suez markets, also turned ‌around and is heading for
Southeast Asia, according to Kpler shiptracking ‌data ⁠and one of
the two sources.

Reliance did not immediately respond ⁠to a Reuters request
for comment.

Asian buyers are rushing to secure fuel supplies to offset
production losses from expected refinery run cuts as the
near-halt in traffic in the Strait of ​Hormuz constrains oil
supply to the ‌region.

Singapore jet fuel refining margins hit a record on March 5
of $80 a barrel.

Arbitrage margins favour sending jet fuel barrels from India
to Asia rather than Europe now, given the tightening supply in
East-of-Suez markets, ‌according to Vortexa’s head of APAC
analysis Ivan Mathews.

Asia’s jet ​fuel production is expected to drop on “lower
crude flows to Asia, prompting refinery run cuts and weaker fuel
output in the ⁠region,” while “restrictions in Strait of Hormuz
flows will reduce Middle East Gulf exports” and further tighten
availability, he added.

Reliance has this week been offering spot ‌diesel and jet
fuel loading from end-March to a handful of buyers in Asia,
cashing in on the higher premiums and urgent demand, four other
sources with knowledge of the activities said.

Discussions were at premiums of $15 to $17 per barrel,
linked to Middle East prices on a free-on-board basis, two of
the four sources said, compared with small premiums in February.

Indian ‌refiners are buying prompt Russian crude oil cargoes
as the South Asian nation seeks ​to navigate an oil supply
crunch, with the U.S. Treasury Departmentgranting a 30-day
waiver on Thursday allowing India to buy Russian ⁠oil stuck at
sea.

OTHER TANKERS ALSO U-TURN

Two other jet fuel tankers, the Elandra ⁠Tern and the Burri,
also turned towards Asia from their original destination of
Europe, the sources said.

The two vessels had loaded jet ‌fuel from either Duqm port in
Oman or Ruwais in Abu Dhabi before the war in Iran started on
February 28, according to ​Kpler data and two trade sources.

Published on March 6, 2026



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