Equity benchmarks staged a sharp recovery on Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak, after rumours surfaced that Iran had conditionally offered to abandon its nuclear programme raised hopes of de-escalation in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. The BSE Sensex surged 899.71 points, or 1.14 per cent, to close at 80,015.90, while the Nifty 50 gained 285.40 points, or 1.17 per cent, to settle at 24,765.90. Earlier in the session, both indices had given up a portion of their intra-day gains after an initial surge.

The catalyst for the rally was a combination of geopolitical and trade-related developments. The US announced security and insurance guarantees for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the possibility of military escorts for oil tankers, easing fears of disruption to global energy supplies. Separately, a US Deputy Secretary indicated that India-US bilateral trade deal negotiations are nearing completion. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said: “…investor sentiment improved after comments from the US deputy secretary suggested that an India-US trade deal may be nearing completion… Market momentum strengthened toward the close after reports that Iran had conditionally offered to abandon its nuclear program…”

Broader markets outperformed the frontline indices. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices gained 1.52 per cent and 1.58 per cent, respectively. On the BSE, 2,749 stocks advanced against 1,515 declines, while 133 remained unchanged. However, 381 stocks hit fresh 52-week lows, against only 66 at 52-week highs, reflecting lingering stress in pockets of the market.

Broad-based gains

Sectorally, the gains were broad-based. The Nifty Metal index advanced 2.29 per cent, supported by supply disruptions in West Asia, including shipment interruptions and smelter shutdowns that tightened global supply. The Nifty Infra index rose 2.21 per cent, Nifty Auto climbed 1.86 per cent and the India Defence index gained 2.5 per cent, buoyed by expectations of higher defence spending amid escalating West Asia tensions. The Nifty IT index was the lone sectoral loser, slipping 0.59 per cent, partly weighed down by the rupee’s recovery.

Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking, noted: “…a sharp surge in the final hours helped the index retest the hurdle near the 24,800 level… Elevated crude oil prices and lingering geopolitical uncertainties continue to keep participants cautious.”

Among individual stocks, Mazagon Dock was a standout gainer, surging around 8 per cent on reports of a potential ₹99,000-crore defence deal. BSE Ltd rose over 4 per cent after receiving SEBI approval to launch index derivatives on two additional indices — Sensex Next 30 and BSE Focused Midcap Index. Adani Ports and Hindalco Industries were among the top Nifty performers. On the losing side, Tech Mahindra and ICICI Bank were the key laggards, weighed down by profit booking and subdued sectoral sentiment.

Decline in fear

Market volatility cooled sharply. India VIX plunged nearly 15.53 per cent to close at 17.8575, signalling a meaningful decline in fear among participants. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said: “…broader markets also rebounded after three consecutive sessions of losses… The India Defence index rose 2.5 per cent, supported by broader market recovery and renewed investor interest amid escalating tensions in West Asia…”

The Indian rupee staged a modest recovery, trading at 91.50 against the US dollar, gaining 0.55 paise, supported by suspected RBI intervention. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said: “…the recovery suggests efforts to stabilise the currency amid rising volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and commodity price movements… dollar index movement and developments in the West Asia conflict will remain key drivers for the rupee as FII’s position gets influenced on crude rates.” Technically, support for the rupee is placed near 91.10, with resistance at 92.00.

Gold traded in a sideways range between ₹1,60,000 and ₹1,63,000, with CME gold hovering near the $5,150 level. Trivedi added: “…market focus now shifts to key US data releases — Initial Jobless Claims, Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls. These data points will play an important role in shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook…”

Global sentiment

Global sentiment also provided a tailwind. Asian markets rebounded, with South Korea’s KOSPI surging 10-12 per cent after the government activated a $68-billion market stabilisation fund, while Japan’s Nikkei gained nearly 1.8 per cent.

Technically, the Nifty holds immediate support at 24,600-24,550, while resistance is positioned at 24,920-24,950. Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, noted the RSI at 37.55 has recovered from oversold levels, though follow-through buying is needed for confirmation. Bank Nifty is expected to consolidate between 58,000 and 60,000 in the near term, with a breakout above 59,400 or breakdown below 58,000 determining the next directional move.

Looking ahead, markets will closely track geopolitical developments in West Asia, global crude oil prices and Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls data. Analysts expect the Nifty to consolidate between 24,300 and 25,200 in the coming sessions, with a sustained close above 25,000 needed to confirm continuation of the recovery. A breakdown below 24,300 could, however, expose the index to deeper support around 24,200-24,000.

Published on March 5, 2026