New Delhi, Mar 5 (PTI) The $63/bbl estimation for average Brent crude price for 2026 is unlikely to see any significant upside as the Strait of Hormuz closure would be only temporary and global oil market oversupply should limit oil price rises, Fitch Ratings said.

Fitch said the strait is not formally closed but vessels are increasingly avoiding it given the risk of attack by Iran or its proxies. Oil majors have halted shipments for safety reasons, and insurers are cancelling war risk cover for vessels.

“We do not expect significant upside to our December 2025 assumption of an average Brent oil price of $63/bbl for 2026,” Fitch said, adding it expects this effective closure of the strait to be temporary.

Also, global oil market oversupply, should limit oil price rises and mitigate any potential disruptions to Iranian oil supply, it added.

Brent crude prices have already risen to $82-84 per barrel from an average of $66-67 in January-February 2026.

The US and Israel jointly launched military strikes on Iran on February 28. Iran responded by firing drones and missiles at Israel and US military installations around the Gulf, and also at the global business hub of Dubai.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for seaborne oil transportation, with limited alternative routes. The crisis in West Asia has led to spiralling prices of global oil and natural gas. The Strait is a narrow 33-kilometre passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.

Fitch said prior to the conflict, around 20 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of crude oil and petroleum products transited the strait, accounting for about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a fifth of global oil consumption.

About half of the oil volumes transported through the strait are exports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with the remainder from Iraq, Kuwait and Iran. About half of these exports go to China and India.

“A protracted closure would affect both exporting and importing countries and therefore is not our baseline assumption. If the strait were to remain effectively closed for a protracted period, naval protection for tanker navigation could be considered, as occurred during the 1980s Iran–Iraq war,” Fitch said.

In addition, the global oil market is oversupplied, which should limit the geopolitical risk premium and cap risks to oil price increases, Fitch said.

Global supply growth exceeded demand growth in 2025. Fitch expects this trend to continue in 2026. Supply increased by about 3MMbpd in 2025, while demand grew by well below 1MMbpd, Fitch added.

While Iran is a sizeable oil producer, producing about 3.5 MMbpd and exporting about 2 MMbpd, it accounts only for about 3.5 per cent of global crude oil production.

Fitch said any potential supply disruption would be offset by global market oversupply.

However, the duration and intensity of the increasingly regional conflict remain uncertain, Fitch said, adding oil price volatility would rise if there were to be any material disruption to Iranian oil production.

“Any protracted blockage of the strait or material and sustained damage to the region’s oil and gas production and transportation infrastructure would materially affect oil markets and likely result in a more material rise in our base case 2026 oil price assumption,” Fitch said.

Published on March 5, 2026

IndusInd Bank’s treasury head ​Siddharth Banerjee is set to step down ‌in April, three sources with knowledge of ​the matter said on ⁠Thursday, marking the latest senior leadership change at the mid-sized private lender.

Banerjee, who has been the ‌head of the global markets group at IndusInd Bank since 2020, ‌has informed the management about his ‌decision, ⁠according to the sources, who ⁠requested anonymity as they are not authorised to speak to the media.

Reuters could not determine the ​reason for ‌his planned exit or ascertain whether a replacement has been found.

Banerjee told Reuters via a mobile text message: “I am ‌the head of markets and still ​working for the bank”.

IndusInd Bank did not respond to a ⁠Reuters query seeking comment.

The lender has seen a number of changes across its top leadership ‌over the past year after reporting its largest-ever quarterly loss in the quarter ended March 2025, following a $230 million hit tied to governance and accounting failures.

The management changes include the ‌exits of former CEO Sumant Kathpalia and Deputy ​CEO Arun Khurana. Chairman Sunil Mehta also stepped down after his term ⁠ended in January.

IndusInd has also appointed ⁠a new CFO, a chief human resources officer and several other senior ‌executives. CEO Rajiv Anand said in November that recruitment will continue as ​the bank restructures.

Published on March 5, 2026

The Reserve Bank of India appears to be stepping up support for ​the government bond market amid surging oil prices, with data ‌showing that an investor category that includes the ​central bank posted its largest single-session purchase ⁠in five years.

The category, which comprises insurance companies, pension funds, corporates and the RBI, bought bonds worth ₹20,285 crore ($2.21 billion) ‌on Wednesday, the highest for this segment since February 2021.

These investors had already bought ‌₹18,400 billion rupees of bonds on Friday and Monday, ‌clearing ⁠house data showed.

Bankers said that big ⁠purchases by this category are often seen as a sign of RBI activity in the secondary market.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

The surge in ​purchases suggests the central ‌bank may be intervening in the market to limit upward pressure on bond yields stemming from higher crude oil prices, which has kindled inflation concerns.

India’s bond market ‌was already grappling with excess supply for much ​of this year prior to the rally in oil prices, leaving sentiment fragile.

Higher government bond ⁠yields can ripple through the broader economy by raising borrowing costs for states and companies.

The 10-year ‌bond yield is down 3 basis points at 6.64% on Thursday and is also lower than levels seen before the conflict broke out over the weekend.

Bankers said that bonds have held up despite the nearly 15% surge in Brent crude, indicating significant support ‌from the RBI.

“The secondary market intervention is more effective for ​the broader market because it allows the central bank to buy liquid, on-the-run securities — freeing up ⁠traders’ balance sheets and keeping participants guessing about its next ⁠move,” said VRC Reddy, treasury head at Karur Vysya Bank.

The RBI has net ‌bought bonds worth a record 6.86 trillion rupees for the fiscal year till February 20, as ​per latest data.

Published on March 5, 2026