Gold soared over $4,500 an ounce, and silver hit $80 per ounce late on Tuesday in the global market before paring gains on profit-booking by investors by mid-day on Wednesday.

The precious metals complex has gained significantly this week after the US administration’s military intervention in Venezuela to topple Nicolas Maduro. In view of the Venezuelan development, seen as part of the geopolitical crisis, gold has gained 3 per cent, silver over 10.5 per cent, platinum 11.5 per cent and palladium 9 per cent.

In India, silver soared to a new high of ₹2,59,692 a kg on MCX for March futures before slipping to ₹2,50,000 at 1845 hours IST. In the Mumbai spot market, silver ended at ₹2,48,000. In the global market, silver declined to $77, while gold to $4,451 an ounce.

Analysts rule out any impact on metals and minerals availability due to the current development in Venezuela. 

Fresh wave of volatility

Research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said the US intervention in Venezuela is supportive of higher gold prices, given the short and long-term uncertainty it introduces for commodity markets and for Washington’s relations with Beijing and Moscow.

“The Trump administration’s military intervention in Venezuela has injected a fresh wave of volatility into global markets, intensifying safe-haven buying,” it said. 

US multinational investment banking firm Morgan Stanley said gold prices gained after the escalation between the US and Venezuela, as demand for precious metals usually increases in times of geopolitical tension. “The uncertainty about what’s next in the US-Venezuela relations keeps the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven,” it said.

‘Geological treasure’

Gracelin Baskaran, Director, Critical Minerals Security Program of the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said while Venezuela possesses sizable gold deposits,  the yellow metal is a commodity for which the US government or private investors are “less likely to accept the high-risk profile of Venezuela”.

Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) news said the South American nation is extremely rich in mineral resources, earning it the nickname “geological treasure.”

BMI said the capture of Maduro suggests that geopolitical turbulence is likely to persist, strengthening the bullish case for gold in 2026. “We revised our 2026 gold price forecast to an annual average of $3,700/oz in December, but we highlight upside risks that may warrant a further upward revision and remain vigilant for new geopolitical developments that could extend the price momentum seen in 2025,” it said.

Morgan Stanley said any weakness of the US dollar could give another boost to gold.

No upside for mining

Luisa Palacios, a member of American Quarterly‘s editorial board, wrote that Venezuela was a relatively large regional producer of aluminium, cement, gold, iron, bauxite, and steel. 

“Mining exports accounted for approximately 6 per cent of its total exports in the 1990s. However, most of the country’s mining production has collapsed following the government’s expropriations of private operators in the 2000s,” she said. 

BMI sees no upside for Venezuela’s mining sector from the removal of Maduro. “Like its much larger oil and gas sector, Venezuela’s mining sector has suffered a steep decline over recent decades, primarily due to the nationalisation of major mining companies such as CVG Ferrominera,” it said. 

Twenty years ago, Venezuela was the world’s twelfth-largest producer of iron ore and the eighth-largest producer of bauxite, the primary feedstocks for steel and aluminium production, respectively. 

Iron ore to fluctuate

“Between 2004 and 2024, we estimate annual iron ore output fell from 20 million tonnes (mt) to 2 mt, bauxite from 5 mt to 0.3 mt, and coal from roughly 6 mt to less than 0.5 mt. We do not expect these production declines to reverse over our forecast period (to 2025), given years of underinvestment in mining and rail infrastructure in Venezuela’s mining regions,” said BMI. 

SMM News said the impact of Venezuela on the actual iron ore supply-demand pattern is relatively limited, but it may cause short-term fluctuations in market sentiment. 

BMI said gold production has significantly been underdeveloped, with mining in Bolívar and Amazonas often controlled by guerrilla groups and criminal gangs.

“Strategic and critical minerals offer the only realistic long-term opportunity for Venezuela’s mining sector. According to the Venezuelan government, Venezuela’s Arco Minero del Orinoco holds reserves of copper, nickel, coltan, titanium and tungsten – minerals classified as critical to the national security and economic prosperity of the US,” the research agency said. 

If a government friendly to Washington is installed in Caracas, the White House could pursue a minerals agreement with Venezuela similar to the one signed with Ukraine, said BMI. 

Raising oil output easy

While such an agreement could give the US preferential access to Venezuelan mineral deposits, extensive exploration would be required before miners could commit capital. “Given how risky a jurisdiction Venezuela is, deposits would need to be of an exceptionally high grade and aligned with strong demand trends for miners to allocate millions of dollars in capex to the country,” said the research agency. 

BMI sees Venezuela’s substantial reserves of oil – the world’s largest – as the biggest barrier to investment in new critical mineral projects in the country. 

“In most cases, production of oil is far easier and quicker to achieve than production of minerals; hence it is likely to be prioritised by US companies and by the US government,” it said. 

American Quarterly’s  Palacios said Venezuela has potential for other critical minerals, such as nickel, given prior production and identified reserves, and for coltan (columbite-tantalite), which is key to clean energy technologies, telecommunications, and defence. 

“The Maduro regime sought to leverage the country’s reserves of nickel and coltan, with limited success due to poor governance of mining operations,” she said.

Published on January 7, 2026