Broker’s call: Kotak Mahindra Bank (Buy)

by Hansraj Agrawal | Jan 2, 2026 | Business

Target: ₹2,500

CMP: ₹2,195.10

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) continues to align its balance sheet expansion with a disciplined growth framework of ~1.5-2.0x nominal GDP while steadily improving business granularity through retail and SME-led growth.

KMB witnessed near-term NIM volatility and elevated credit costs earlier in FY26; however, operating performance is expected to normalise as funding-cost repricing plays out and unsecured stress subsides.

The bank remains focused on profitable, calibrated growth, with retail, SME, agri and tractor portfolios supporting balance-sheet expansion, while CV and unsecured exposures remain well managed.

Subsidiaries continue to provide structural earnings diversification, supporting consolidated profitability over the medium term.

Management has reiterated that secured lending will grow faster than unsecured, although absolute unsecured balances will continue to expand as risk conditions ease. Retail assets such as housing loans and LAP continue to perform well, while wholesale growth will remain selective and margin-led, with preference for flow-based businesses rather than long-tenor balance-sheet deployment.

Disciplined execution, strong liability franchise and capital strength underpin confidence in sustainable RoA of over 2 per cent.

We thus estimate KMB to deliver robust return ratios, with RoA/RoE at 2/12.7 per cent by FY27E. Retain BUY with TP of ₹2,500 (2.5x FY27E ABV, including an SoTP value of ₹775 for subs).

Published on January 2, 2026

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India’s gherkin exports may drop by a tenth due to US tariff

by Hansraj Agrawal | Jan 2, 2026 | Business

India’s exports of gherkins for FY26 are likely to dip around 10 per cent due to the tariffs imposed by the US — the largest market. However, the weakening rupee has partly cushioned realisations, exporters said.

“To a certain extent, there will be some decline in the exports volumes. The dollar, which has appreciated, has taken care of some of the turnover basis but the quantity will certainly get reduced,” said GM Vinod, President, Indian Gherkin Exporters Association (IGEA).

The US is the largest market for Indian gherkin exports. “Our exposure is about 25 per cent to the US. And we are trying to diversify into other markets like Europe and Russia. However, we are not getting proper pricing from those markets. So, it’s an issue for us,” Vinod said.

“Europe and Russia grow on their own gherkins also in substantial quantities and Turkiye is a direct competitor for us in Europe. Besides, some of the Eastern European countries also produce gherkins. So, we are not able to penetrate into those markets very well at the moment,” Vinod added.

Per Apeda data, cucumber and gherkin exports touched $169.71 million during April-October of the current financial year — up from $159.02 million a year earlier. In volume terms, exports stood at 1.69 lakh tonnes ( 1.48 lakh tonnes). During 2024-25, gherkin exports had touched a record $306.72 million and over 2.89 lakh tonnes in volumes.

Exporters trim output

India ships gherkins both in bulk and bottled forms. “There may be a reduction of 10 per cent in overall export volumes this year due to the impact of US tariff,” said Pradeep Pooviah, an exporter. “Both buyer and exporters are taking the additional costs of this duty imposed by the US as it is not easy for the buyers to shift to other origins,” Pooviah said.

Further, he said unlike shrimp and seafood, gherkins lack strong alternative markets. “ Though the trade agreements with the UK and Australia may help us somewhere, but they have smaller volumes for us,” he added.

Pooviah said the exporters are awaiting the 3 per cent interest subvention announced in the trade policy and faster GST refunds. “It still takes 30-40 days to get the GST refund,” he added.

Gherkins are grown under contract farming in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Most of the crop is exported as domestic demand is negligible. Considering the market uncertainty, exporters have trimmed their production. “There is a slight cut in production. We are trying to get into the other markets,” Vinod said.

Published on January 2, 2026

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Banking system liquidity turns into moderate surplus

by Hansraj Agrawal | Jan 2, 2026 | Business

The banking system has been reeling under a liquidity deficit since December 16^th due to outflows on account of advance tax and GST payments.
| Photo Credit:
PRIYANSHU SINGH

The banking system has not seen the usual phenomenon of liquidity bouncing back at the beginning of the month this time around, with the surplus as on January 01, 2026, placed at a modest ₹23,865 crore.

The system usually sees a surplus of ₹1-1.5 lakh crore at the beginning of the month, with Government spending releasing liquidity.

The banking system has been reeling under a liquidity deficit since December 16^th due to outflows on account of advance tax and GST payments. This prompted the RBI to announce liquidity infusion measures.

The liquidity surplus is only modest (surplus at ₹23,865 crore and ₹17,335 crore on January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2025, respectively) is despite the RBI undertaking liquidity injection measures OMO (open market operation) purchase of government securities (G-Secs) of ₹1 lakh crore and a 3-year USD/INR Buy Sell swap of $5 billion last month to inject durable liquidity into the system and the cent.

Liquidity infusion measures

Further, the central bank has embarked on another round of liquidity infusion measures — OMO purchase auctions of G-Secs for an aggregate amount of ₹2 lakh crore in four tranches of ₹50,000 crore each (on December 29, 2025, January 05, 2026, January 12, 2026, and January 22, 2026) and USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap auction of $10 billion for a tenor of 3 years to be held on January 13, 2026.

V Rama Chandra Reddy, Head – Treasury, Karur Vysya Bank, said: “Liquidity in the system is driven by two players – RBI and Government of India. The Government holds liquidity surplus temporarily with RBI. This can create tightness. But the liquidity gets released either towards month-end or beginning of the month when the Government spends money…Further, if RBI’s forward Dollar sales mature, liquidity gets impacted.

“Normally, there should be a surplus of ₹1-1.5 lakh crore in the beginning of the month. For example, in the beginning of December 2025, the banking system had surplus liquidity of ₹2.5-2.7 lakh crore. Now the surplus is a very moderate.” He expects comfortable liquidity conditions to return towards January-end.

Published on January 2, 2026

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The rise of family offices and changing investment landscape

by Hansraj Agrawal | Jan 2, 2026 | Business

Currently, family offices in India are increasingly diversifying wealth across various asset classes, including real estate, fixed-income funds, hedge funds, equities and private equity
| Photo Credit:
Dimple Bhati

While institutional investors, both foreign and domestic, continue to dominate market headlines, a powerful new player has emerged in recent years from India’s surging wealth creation industry: the Family Office.

A family office is a private entity established by ultra-high-net-worth individuals or families to holistically manage their wealth, encompassing financial investments, business interests, and personal affairs. Its main objective is to preserve, grow and transfer wealth across generations, with services customised to the family’s specific goals, values, and long-term vision. Typically, they target private markets, eyeing high-growth sectors.

According to reports, family offices surged from 45 in 2018 to 300 in 2024 and manage assets under management (AUM) of $30 billion.

A report from Sundaram Alternates shows that significant losses on investment portfolios managed by banks and large financial institutions have also prompted many wealthy families to seek greater control over their investments and reduce costs, leading to the rise of family offices.

Structure of FO

Currently, family offices in India are increasingly diversifying wealth across various asset classes, including real estate, fixed-income funds, hedge funds, equities and private equity, it added.

There are two categories of family offices – Single-Family Office or Multi-Family Office. The former manages the wealth and affairs of one family, providing focused investment strategies, high-touch services, and full control over decision-making. It offers maximum privacy and alignment with the family’s values but is costly to operate, making it suitable primarily for ultra-wealthy families.

Premji Invest, is one of the pioneers to establish professionally managed family offices in 2006 by Azim Premji of Wipro. Among the top echelons included Catamaran Ventures, founded by Infosys co-founder Narayana Murthy. Besides, Aarin Capital (Dr Ranjan Pai, Mohandas Pai), Ajay Piramal SFO, Artha India Ventures (Anirudh Damani), Burman Family Office (Dabur group owners), JSW Venture Fund (Sajjan Jindal), Murugappa Family Group, RAAY (Amit Patni), Innovations Investment Management (SD Shibulal), RNT Associates (Ratan Tata), Equirus Family Office.

The multi-family office set-up supports multiple families under a shared platform, offering institutional-quality investment management, estate planning, and administrative services at a more efficient cost. Some of notable multi-family offices included Client Associates, Equirus Family Office, Waterfield Advisors and Acquitas Capital Advisors.

Key investments

While most family offices are in tier 1 cities (especially in Mumbai and Delhi), more families are setting up formal or similar family offices in tier-2 and tier-3 cities.

Some of the prominent companies that were backed by family offices included ACKO, Reddit, SpaceX, Lenskart, Canva, Dezerv, Nykaa, Capital Small Finance Bank, Pilgrim and Medi Assist.

According to EY, India’s tax landscape significantly influences family office strategies, with many exploring tax-efficient structures to enhance returns. “Sophisticated strategies, such as long-short funds, are gaining traction among family offices seeking better risk-adjusted returns,” it said in a report.

Currently, family offices in India are not subject to direct regulation by a dedicated authority, but operate within the framework of general financial and securities laws. When there were reports recently about Securities and Exchange Board of India planning regulatory oversight of family offices, the regulator scotched it as rumour.

At nascent stage

Indian family offices are still at nascent stage compared with the size and scale of global family offices that handle over trillions of dollar assets. However, given the animal spirits of Indian business class, innovative structural financial products, and the evolution of Gift City for tax benefits, family offices are set to grow leap and bounds in the days ahead. There are reports that global family offices also plans to enter India for long-term investments.

Interesting days ahead, with millennials and Gen Z heirs of ultra high net worth individuals (UHNIs) willing to take risks by backing start-ups and innovative business ideas, even a small percentage of success on their investments can usher in new waves of entrepreneurs across sectors.

Published on January 2, 2026

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Broker’s call: Adani Power (Buy)

by Hansraj Agrawal | Jan 2, 2026 | Business

Target: ₹178

CMP: ₹148.15

Seeing the indispensability of thermal power in India’s growth story and projected peak power demand of 700 GW + by 2047, Adani Power gradually built capacities and is now India’s largest private sector thermal power producer with 18.1 GW capacity (10.8 GW organic + 7.3 GW inorganic) and is targeting a capacity of 41.9 GW by FY32.

The company continues to create execution benchmarks like synchronisation of 4,620 MW Mundra within 36 months and pre-ordering of critical power equipment. With key enablers in place (land, EC, PPA, equipment) and superior operating metrics (71 per cent PLF, 91 per cent PAF), we expect operational capacity to reach 41.3 GW by FY32 and EBITDA/MW to grow from ₹1.3 crore/MW in FY25 to ₹1.8 crore/MW by FY32.

Net debt/EBITDA is likely to rise from the current low of 1.6x in FY25 to 3.0x by FY29 due to incremental debt raised to fund the capex of ₹2 lakh crore over FY25-32; but, it will moderate to 1.6x by FY31 as new capacity becomes operational.

We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and value it at 13x FY28 EV/EBITDA (considering the improvement in EBITDA/MW) with a TP of ₹178, implying 3.4x P/B FY28.

Key risks: Execution and capital intensity, corporate governance and regulatory overhang, merchant power & pricing exposure, counterparty, legal & cross-border risk and thermal concentration & regulatory transition.

Published on January 2, 2026

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Crude oil futures gain as Russia, Ukraine accuse each other of civilian attacks

by Hansraj Agrawal | Jan 2, 2026 | Business

Russia is one of the major producers of crude oil in the global market.

Crude oil futures traded higher on Friday morning as Russia and Ukraine accused each other of attacking civilians on New Year’s Day.

At 9.55 am on Friday, March Brent oil futures were at $61.11, up by 0.43 per cent, and February crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $57.70, up by 0.49 per cent. January crude oil futures were trading at ₹5,213 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹5,223, down by 0.19 per cent, and February futures were trading at ₹5,224 against the previous close of ₹5,232, down by 0.15 per cent.

Quoting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s Telegram post, a Reuters report said: “On New Year, Russia deliberately brings war. Over 200 attack drones were launched onto Ukraine in the night.” He said energy infrastructure in seven regions across Ukraine had been targeted.

Meanwhile, Russia accused Ukraine of killing at least 24 people, including a child, in a drone strike on a hotel and cafe where civilians were celebrating New Year in a Russian-controlled part of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

These developments are taking place at a time when the US is working with both the countries to end four-year-old war.

Russia is one of the major producers of crude oil in the global market.

On Wednesday, US administration mounted further pressure on Venezuela’s crude oil exports by imposing sanctions on companies and vessels based in Hong Kong and China.

Market players are now waiting for the outcome of the meeting of OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) scheduled to be held on January 4. Markets expect OPEC+ to maintain its recent decision to pause further output hikes in first quarter of 2026.

January copper futures were trading at ₹1,314.70 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹1,292.50, up by 1.72 per cent.

On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), April turmeric (farmer polished) contracts were trading at ₹18380 in the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹17,800, up by 3.26 per cent.

January guargum futures were trading at ₹11,625 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Friday against the previous close of ₹11,509, up by 1.01 per cent.