Broker’s call: Timken India (Accumulate)

Broker’s call: Timken India (Accumulate)


Target: ₹3,665

CMP: ₹3,154.05

Timken India manufactures and distributes anti-friction bearings, components and mechanical power transmission products. It also offers maintenance, refurbishment, and industrial services across various sectors.

Timken’s Q3-FY26 revenue from operations grew 14 per cent y-o-y to ₹764.3 crore. All business segments grew during the quarter, with the Process segment showing the strongest momentum, jumping 24 per cent y-o-y to ₹167 crore.

Though impacted by temporary cost pressures and the initial ramp-up phase of the Bharuch plant, Timken continues to demonstrate underlying demand strength across key industrial segments.

We expect revenues to grow at 15 per cent CAGR, driven by demand improvement from CV and rail segments and improving utilisation at the new SRB/CRB capacity and potential upside from favourable global trade developments that enhance export opportunities. Margins are expected to expand from 17.8 per cent in FY26E to 19.9 per cent in FY28E as mix normalises from current unfavourable mix and Bharuch ramp-up costs taper off and operating leverage improves with rising domestic and export volumes.

Resultantly, earnings are projected to grow at a strong 22 per cent CAGR over FY26–28E, reflecting both topline momentum and margin recovery. Hence, we value the stock at 44X on FY28 EPS and upgrade the stock from Sell to Accumulate rating with a Target price of ₹3,665/Share.

Published on February 20, 2026



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Total corporate bond issuances declined 6% in 9MFY26 amid rising yields and shift towards bank credit: RBI Bulletin

Total corporate bond issuances declined 6% in 9MFY26 amid rising yields and shift towards bank credit: RBI Bulletin


Corporate bond issuances increased to ₹74,000 crore in December 2025 from ₹59,000 crore in November 2025, according to RBI’s ‘State of the Economy’ report

Total corporate bond issuances in the first nine months of the current financial year (9MFY26) are about 6 per cent lower at ₹6.83 lakh crore, against ₹7.25 lakh crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. This development comes amidst rising corporate bond yields and the shift towards bank credit.

Corporate bond issuances increased to ₹74,000 crore in December 2025 from ₹59,000 crore in November 2025, according to RBI’s ‘State of the Economy’ report.

Corporate bond yields hardened across tenors and the rating spectrum, with their spreads over corresponding maturity government securities generally widening.

For example, in the case of one-year and three-year “AAA”-rated corporate bonds, their spreads over corresponding maturity government securities widened to 181 basis points (bps) during the January 16, 2026 – February 16, 2026 period (from 151 bps during the December 16, 2025 – January 14, 2026 period) and 91 bps (80 bps), respectively.

Bank credit and deposit growth

Scheduled commercial banks’ (SCBs) credit and deposit growth continued to be in double digits during the month, with credit growth outpacing deposit growth, per the bulletin.

SCBs’ credit growth increased marginally to 14.6 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) as on January 31, 2026, from 14.5 per cent (y-o-y) as on December 31, 2025. SCBs’ deposit growth declined marginally to 12.5 per cent (y-o-y) from 12.7 per cent (y-o-y) during the same period last year.

Overall, non-food bank credit growth (y-o-y) witnessed strengthening across all major sectors in December, 2025.

Agriculture and industrial credit growth surged to double digits. Within industries, lending to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as well as large industries witnessed higher growth. Credit to services sector grew, due to a steep rise in bank lending to NBFCs, along with robust growth in sectors like trade and commercial real estate. Housing, gold and vehicle loan segments drove growth of personal loans.

Flow of financial resources

So far in FY26 (up to January 31, 2026), total flow of financial resources to the commercial sector increased to ₹34.5 lakh crore from ₹25.5 lakh crore a year ago. Non-bank sources − corporate bond issuances, and foreign direct investment to India − has shown a marked increase so far.

As on January 31, 2026, the total outstanding credit to the commercial sector rose by 14.7 per cent, with non-bank sources registering a growth of 15.1 per cent.

Published on February 20, 2026



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Broker’s call: Aadhar Housing (Buy)

Broker’s call: Aadhar Housing (Buy)


Target: ₹650

CMP: ₹479.40

We hosted MD & CEO, CFO of Aadhar Housing for investor meetings in Mumbai.

Key takeaways: Medium-term AUM trajectory of 20-22 per cent with over ₹50,000 crore milestone within 3 years. Pan-India presence and deeper coverage de-risk it from State-specific growth challenges; Dual market approach to effectively manage market dynamics – Urban/ Emerging ‘A’ markets target volume/AUM growth, while ‘B’ & ‘C’ prioritise value and enhanced risk-adjusted returns; spreads to sustain above 5.6 per cent over the medium term; and credit cost guidance of 25-27 bps; Annual improvement of 40-50 bps in C/I and 6-8bps in cost/assets over the next 3 years.

We rate Aadhar Housing shares as Buy. We expect Aadhar shares to command a premium, given superior and projected sustainable RoA/RoE of over 4.5/16.5 per cent over FY25-27E. Aadhar differentiates itself with: scale with granularity; non-conventional diversified distribution; cost-efficient graded branch structure, phased expansion and tech stack improving productivity & analytics.

Using a two-stage Gordon Growth model, we arrive at a target price of ₹650 for Aadhar assuming CoEs of 12.2 per cent, medium-term RoEs of 16 per cent and high growth phase of 10 years with expected growth of 20 per cent. We assign price-to-book of 3.3x 9MFY27E BV.

Risks: The build-up of stress in LAP over and above expectations; and roll-back from elevated GS3 getting disrupted due to activity slowdown also leading to growth slowdown.

Published on February 20, 2026



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Silver, Gold ETFs and SEBI’s measured framework

Silver, Gold ETFs and SEBI’s measured framework


The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), in consultation paper, has proposed introducing price bands for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly focusing on Gold and Silver ETFs. The market regulator put forward these measures in response to sharp fluctuations in global precious metal prices, driven by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. These factors have significantly impacted silver ETFs, with some experiencing price declines of more than 20 per cent a few days back in a single day, leading to increased volatility in performance and investor valuations.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on equity or debt indices, are market-linked securities traded on stock exchanges. Like MFs, they collect money from investors and invest in ETF, which in turn buy index constituents through basket buying, with same weightage of underlying index. The ETFs can be bought both through direct (based on NAV price) or exchanges (where they will trade like equity). For Gold and Silver ETFs, the underlying is the precious metals. For each ETF investor, the AMC will buy the silver or gold and keep it in vaults by a designated custodian appointed by the fund house.

SEBI’s rationale

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has observed that sudden sharp increases or decreases in global gold and silver prices can significantly disrupt trading in domestic ETFs. These extreme price movements are often fuelled more by speculative activity than by actual underlying fundamentals. To promote market stability and reduce the risk of panic-driven selling or buying, SEBI has proposed the introduction of a calibrated circuit breaker mechanism.

SEBI has proposed an initial price band of 6 per cent, either upward or downward, for Gold and Silver ETFs

If the 6 per cent threshold is breached, trading will be suspended for 15 minutes. The cooling-off period, according to SEBI, allows investors to reassess information and prevents panic-driven trades. After the cooling-off period, the price band may be expanded in increments of 3 per cent, subject to strict monitoring conditions.

If international gold or silver prices move beyond the domestic daily threshold of 9 per cent, exchanges may relax limits in stages of 3 per cent, with a mandatory cooling-off period each time. Nevertheless, under no circumstances can the price of Gold or Silver ETFs move beyond 20 per cent in a single trading day.

Stringent criteria

Further, to prevent misuse of price flexibility, SEBI has also proposed stringent trading criteria before allowing further relaxation beyond certain thresholds: At least 50 trades; Involving 10 Unique Client Codes; participation of three trading members on both buy and sell sides; and, the price band may only be flexed twice in a single trading day, ensuring tight regulatory control.

SEBI has also proposed applying a similar graded price band framework to debt and equity index ETFs. Another proposal involves shifting the reference price for ETFs from the current T-2 day NAV-based system to T-1 day metrics. The objective is to remove the existing one-day lag and align ETF trading more closely with movements in their underlying assets.

No doubt these measures, if implemented, will protect retail investors from extreme swings and improve price discovery but may limit arbitrage opportunities for intra-day traders. However, these framework will have little impact for long-term investors and, in fact, enhance stability in their portfolio valuations.

While free-market advocates oppose any price controls, extreme market conditions can justify decisive regulatory intervention. In time, as retail investors gain a better understanding of the dangers of short-term speculation and increasingly adopt goal-oriented, long-term strategies, regulators may be able to gradually eliminate such measures. Until that shift occurs, caution and close monitoring remain critical.

Published on February 20, 2026



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ABB India shares rises 9% post Q4 results, record orders

ABB India shares rises 9% post Q4 results, record orders


ABB India shares settled 5 per cent positive after rallying 9 per cent on Friday after the company reported its Q4 results, with investors cheering robust order inflows and healthy demand across key sectors.

The stock closed 5 per cent positive at ₹5,985.35  on the BSE after touching an intraday high of ₹6246.75, compared with the previous close of ₹5,715.65. The shares had briefly dipped at the open to ₹5,700 before gaining momentum through the session.

ABB India stock movement today

Order momentum supports outlook

The company reported its highest quarterly order intake in five years, for the October–December period, orders rose 52 per cent to ₹4,096 crore. This helped lift full-year 2025 order inflows to a record ₹14,115 crore, marking an 8 per cent increase year-on-year and reflecting sustained demand across industries. The growth was supported by the base business as well as timely booking of large orders from sectors including data centres, automotive, buildings and infrastructure, railways and metals.

Despite the strong order book, consolidated net profit for the quarter ended December 2025 declined 22 per cent year-on-year to ₹432.85 crore, from ₹528.41 crore a year earlier.

Brokerages see margin strength, mixed outlook

Brokerage views following the results were varied. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said revenue came in broadly in line with expectations, while margins and order inflows were positive surprises. They noted EBITDA margins of 17.2 per cent after adjusting for labour-code-related exceptional items, which led to better-than-expected adjusted profit performance.

Global brokerage JP Morgan maintained neutral rating at ₹5,639 target price.

Meanwhile, JM Financial said order inflows were broadly in line with expectations and supported by strong base orders and large wins in growth areas such as data centres, infrastructure and metals. The brokerage noted EBITDA was in line with estimates, but would have been significantly ahead after adjusting for labour code costs. It added that electrification and motion segment margins were steady, while process automation posted a revenue beat, but margin miss. JM Financial maintained a reduce rating on the stock with a target price of ₹4,840.

Published on February 20, 2026



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Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund launches multi-factor passive fund with ₹500 minimum

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund launches multi-factor passive fund with ₹500 minimum


The Motilal Oswal Multi Factor Passive Fund of Funds equally allocates 25% each to Momentum, Quality, Low Volatility and Value factors, with quarterly reviews and disciplined rebalancing.

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund on Thursday launched the Motilal Oswal Multi Factor Passive Fund of Funds, an open-ended scheme that invests in passively managed, factor-based ETFs and index funds. The New Fund Offer opens February 20 and closes March 6, 2026, with a minimum application amount of ₹500.

EQUAL FACTOR STRATEGY

The fund allocates its portfolio equally across four investment factors: Momentum (Nifty 500 Momentum 50), Quality (BSE Quality), Low Volatility (BSE Low Volatility), and Value (BSE Enhanced Value), each at 25 per cent. Allocations are reviewed quarterly and rebalanced only when any factor drifts beyond ±5 per cent from its target weight, removing the need for discretionary timing calls.

The rationale behind the equal-weight structure is factor rotation: no single factor consistently leads the market across cycles. According to MOAMC’s internal research, Momentum tends to outperform during bull runs, Value during recoveries, and Quality and Low Volatility during market downturns. By spreading exposure across all four, the fund aims to reduce dependence on predicting which factor will lead at any given time.

BENCHMARK & FUND DETAILS

The scheme will be benchmarked against the Nifty 500 Total Return Index. It carries an exit load of 1 per cent if redeemed within 15 days of allotment, and a nil exit load thereafter. The fund will be managed by Swapnil Mayekar and Dishant Mehta for the equity component, and by Rakesh Shetty for the debt component.

Pratik Oswal, Chief of Business – Passive Funds at MOAMC, described the fund as “transparent and cost-efficient,” designed to provide diversified factor exposure within a structured framework. Investors can subscribe through mutual fund distributors, online platforms, or the fund house’s website.

Published on February 19, 2026



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