Oil traders race against time to solve a global diesel crunch

by Hansraj Agrawal | Aug 7, 2025 | Business

A slew of plant closures in the US and Europe since the Covid-driven oil market crash has tightened supplies in key hub
| Photo Credit:
MUKESH GUPTA

The oil market is pulling all the levers it can to ease a global diesel crunch, but the window is narrowing to replenish stockpiles of the world’s workhorse fuel before hurricanes and refinery maintenance curtail output.

From the US Gulf Coast to Rotterdam and Singapore, storage tanks have only recently started rising from dramatically low levels, and traders say it’s going to be a tight race to refill them. With price spikes during the Israel-Iran conflict fresh in the memory, most say it’s hard to see a major easing, echoing warnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and energy giant TotalEnergies SE.

The fate of the fuel has wide-reaching ramifications for the global economy. Higher prices can ripple through inflation readings and dent consumer and business confidence at a time when US President Donald Trump’s tariff wars also raise costs. American farmers will need large volumes of diesel to power their tractors and grain dryers during harvesting season in the fall, and drivers are already paying the most at the pump in about a year.

Meanwhile, Trump’s push to punish India for processing Russian crude into much needed global diesel supplies leaves Europe particularly vulnerable. The continent has become more dependent on fuel from further afield after direct imports from nearby Russia were banned.

“We’re bullish for the end of the year,” said Rami Ramadan, co-head of global middle distillates at commodity trader BB Energy. “We are going to be in for some shocks for sure because of how Europe has been disconnected from its closest sources of supply.”

US stockpiles of diesel’s family of fuels — used in everything from locomotives and trucks to power generation and heating — plunged to their lowest summer levels this century. While inventories should normally build over the summer, longer-term factors have made things more acute in the last few years.

A slew of plant closures in the US and Europe since the Covid-driven oil market crash has tightened supplies in key hubs. Even as high margins lead refiners like Phillips 66 and Valero Energy to maximize diesel output, US inventories have only in recent weeks inched past the critical lows seen in the summer of 2022, just after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. In Europe buyers await tankers from the Middle East and Asia.

After touching the equivalent of $110 a barrel following Israel’s air strikes on Iran, prices have retreated closer to $90. Diesel’s strength over the summer helped support crude prices while OPEC+ restored production faster than initially planned.

Before the war in Ukraine, European diesel seldom traded $15 a barrel above Brent crude. Ever since, it has rarely traded at less than that. The spread, known in market parlance as a crack, is currently above $20 in Europe and around $30 in the US.

Goldman Sachs expects both spreads to stay near current levels into 2026 “on continuing structural tightness in refining capacity,” and TotalEnergies said stronger diesel prices will become a “persistent feature” of the global oil market.

“Heading into hurricane season, if we have some type of supply disruption, I think you’ll see a pretty significant market reaction with inventories as low as they are,” Gary Simmons, executive vice president and chief operating officer at Valero, said on an earnings call. “We expect diesel cracks to remain strong.”

Diesel is part of a group of refined products known as middle distillates, which includes jet fuel and heating oil. High demand from the aviation sector has also tightened the balance of supplies, and a cold winter could do the same.

“Over the next three to four months, we’re quite constructive on diesel cracks being sustained at levels similar to where they’re at today,” Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s Chief Commercial Officer Rick Hessling said on an earnings call, adding that trucking and agriculture demand is “very healthy.”

Not all traders are bullish, though, as there has been some relief in the past few weeks. As well as stockpiles showing signs of recovering, more diesel and jet fuel cargoes left Asia and the Middle East for Europe in July than any time in the last 11 months, according to Kpler data. One diesel-laden supertanker of two million barrels is currently sailing to Europe, and another has been booked, according to a person involved in the flows, adding momentum to the resupply.

“One of the things we’re doing is watching the Mideast and India, where the global net-distillate length exists for potential imports into Europe,” Brian Mandell, executive vice president of marketing and commercial at Phillips 66, said on an earnings call.

Mandell said that prices are likely to eventually ease as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners add extra supplies of heavy crude that’s better for making diesel. But it takes time for the group to go from targets to actual production, and then for the barrels to be shipped, processed into diesel and finally reach the fuel’s buyers.

“We would think that distillate margins will remain strong through the year, eventually coming off some when you get these extra barrels — heavy crude barrels — back onto the market,” he said.

–With assistance from Devika Krishna Kumar, Jack Wittels, Rachel Graham, Archie Hunter and Prejula Prem.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

Published on August 7, 2025

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Sensex tumbles below 80,000 level as Trump announces additional tariffs, metal, oil & gas stocks drag the most

by Hansraj Agrawal | Aug 7, 2025 | Business

Equity benchmark indices dragged in mid-trading session on Thursday, following sharp escalation in the US tariffs. The additional 25 per cent levy on Indian goods has rattled investor sentiment, especially impacting export-driven sectors like textiles, jewellery, shrimp, auto components, and chemicals.

Sensex traded 501 pts or 0.62 per cent lower at 80,042.99 as at 1.11 pm, hitting an intraday low of 79,979.05 (down 564.94 pts) against the previous close of 80,543.99. Nifty 50 fell 169.60 pts or 0.69 per cent to 24,404.60.

The market witnessed a broad-based decline with midcap and smallcap indexes down 0.94 per cent and 0.82 per cent, respectively. On the sectoral front, all indices traded in the red except the media sector. Nifty metal, realty, PSU bank and oil & gas depreciated over 1 per cent.

Top gainers & losers intraday

Shares of Hero Motocorp gained 3 per cent, leading the gainers of Nifty 50. JSW Steel, ITC, HDFC Bank, Asian Paints and HCL Tech followed with marginal gains.

On the losing side, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Jio Financial, Tata Motors and Apollo Hospitals fell 1.5 per cent to 3.50 per cent at the time of writing.

Staging broader weakness, nearly 1,989 stocks declined compared to only 809 advancing out of a total of 2,861 stocks traded on the National Stock Exchange.

Datamatics, Fortis, JK Cement, Godfrey Phillips were among the 28 stocks that hit a 52-week high. Barbeque, Ease My Trip, IEX featured among the 83 stocks that hit a 52-week low.

Only 39 stocks hit the upper circuit, while 62 shares including Electrotherm (India) hit the lower circuit.

Lupin, Coforge, Torrent Power and Persistent Systems soared 2-4 per cent under the midcap segment, while BHEL, CONCOR, Suzlon, Bharti Hexacom and NTPC Green depreciated 3-6 per cent.

Smallcap stocks ITI, CESC, Natco Pharma and PVR Inox soared 2-5 per cent, while Godfrey Phillips, Reliance Power, PGEL, Ircon and IFCI fell 3-8 per cent.

On the BSE, Rain Industries, Avalon, Shakti Pumps and Kirloskar Brothers zoomed 5-9 per cent. Fusion Finance, Morepen Laboratories, GNFC and Electrosteel Castings dragged 7-8 per cent.

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Published on August 7, 2025

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ट्रंप के भारत पर नए टैरिफ के ऐलान से और चमका सोना, जानें 7 अगस्त 2025 का ताज़ा भाव

by Hansraj Agrawal | Aug 7, 2025 | Business

Gold Price Today: अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप ने भारत के ऊपर 25 प्रतिशत बेस टैरिफ के अतिरिक्त, रूस से तेल खरीदने के चलते और 25 प्रतिशत अतिरिक्त टैरिफ लगाने का ऐलान किया है, जो 27 अगस्त से लागू होगा. टैरिफ के इस ऐलान के बाद सोने की कीमतों में तेज़ी आई है. आज, 7 अगस्त 2025 को भारतीय बाज़ार में 24 कैरेट सोना प्रति 10 ग्राम 1,02,550 रुपये की दर से बिक रहा है, जबकि एक दिन पहले इसका भाव 1,02,330 रुपये था. यानी रेट में 220 रुपये की बढ़ोतरी हुई है.

इसी तरह, आज 22 कैरेट सोना 94,000 रुपये प्रति 10 ग्राम पर कारोबार कर रहा है, जो एक दिन पहले 93,800 रुपये था. यानी इसमें 200 रुपये की वृद्धि हुई है. वहीं 18 कैरेट सोना आज 76,910 रुपये पर उपलब्ध है, जबकि एक दिन पहले इसका भाव 76,750 रुपये था. यानी, इसमें 160 रुपये की बढ़ोतरी हुई है. निवेश के उद्देश्य से ज़्यादातर लोग 24 कैरेट सोने की खरीदारी करते हैं.

आपके शहर का ताज़ा भाव:

आज दिल्ली, जयपुर, लखनऊ और चंडीगढ़ में 24 कैरेट सोना 1,02,700 रुपये प्रति 10 ग्राम की दर से बिक रहा है, जबकि 22 कैरेट सोना 94,150 रुपये और 18 कैरेट सोना 77,040 रुपये प्रति 10 ग्राम पर उपलब्ध है.

वहीं चेन्नई, मुंबई, कोलकाता, बेंगलुरु, हैदराबाद, केरल, पुणे, नागपुर, भुवनेश्वर और विशाखापत्तनम् के बाज़ारों में 24 कैरेट सोना 1,02,550 रुपये, 22 कैरेट सोना 94,000 रुपये और 18 कैरेट सोना 77,600 रुपये प्रति 10 ग्राम की दर से कारोबार कर रहा है.

कैसे तय होता है रेट?

सोना और चांदी की कीमतें रोजाना तय होती हैं और इसके पीछे कई महत्वपूर्ण फैक्टर जिम्मेदार होते हैं. इसमें डॉलर की कीमत में उतार-चढ़ाव, एक्सचेंज रेट, सीमा शुल्क और अंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजार की स्थिति शामिल हैं. वैश्विक बाजार में जब आर्थिक या राजनीतिक अनिश्चितता होती है, तब निवेशक शेयर या अन्य जोखिमभरे साधनों से पैसा हटाकर सोने जैसे सुरक्षित विकल्प में निवेश करना पसंद करते हैं, जिससे इसकी मांग बढ़ जाती है और दाम ऊपर जाते हैं.

भारत में सोने का केवल आर्थिक ही नहीं, बल्कि सामाजिक और सांस्कृतिक महत्व भी है. शादी-ब्याह, त्योहारों और धार्मिक अवसरों पर सोने को शुभ माना जाता है. इसके अलावा, किसी परिवार के पास सोना होना उनकी आर्थिक स्थिति और संपन्नता का प्रतीक भी माना जाता है. सोने ने समय-समय पर महंगाई के मुकाबले बेहतर रिटर्न देकर खुद को एक विश्वसनीय निवेश विकल्प के रूप में स्थापित किया है. यही वजह है कि इसकी मांग हमेशा बनी रहती है और इसके दाम पर इन तमाम पहलुओं का मिलाजुला असर पड़ता है.

ये भी पढ़ें: ट्रंप के अतिरिक्त 25% टैरिफ से बेखौफ भारतीय रुपया, आज फिर डॉलर के मुकाबले इतना हुआ मजबूत

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From calling 'Tariff King' to imposing high import duties: How US toughened trade terms with India

by Hansraj Agrawal | Aug 7, 2025 | Business

US has imposed sector-specific tariffs on three categories – steel and aluminium (50 per cent); copper (50 per cent), and auto parts (25 per cent. These are also additional duties (means over and above existing levies, if any)
| Photo Credit:
KEVIN LAMARQUE

From labelling India the ‘Tariff King’ to slapping sweeping import duties, US President Donald Trump has steadily hardened his trade stance on India.

These announcements are being seen as a pressure tactic to get New Delhi to agree to demands made by the US in the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement.

Apr 9, 2025: US pauses implementation of country-specific tariff rates (16 per cent in case of India) for 90 days, deferring it to July 9. The 10 per cent baseline tariff remains. July 8, 2025: Suspension period further extended to August 1. July 30, 2025: US announces 25 per cent tariff plus penalty on Indian goods. Penalty for buying crude oil and military equipment from Russia.

July 31, 2025: White House issues executive order for 25 per cent tariff to take effect August 7. No mention of penalty. The 10 per cent baseline duty and exempted sectors remain unchanged. Aug 5, 2025: Trump says he will raise tariffs further on India “very substantially”. Aug 6, 2025: Imposes an additional 25 per cent tariff, raising it to 50 per cent, on goods coming from India as a penalty for New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

*What is the current import duty structure on Indian goods in the US?

From August 7, Indian goods entering the US are facing a 25 per cent (including 10 per cent baseline tariff) plus MFN (most favoured nation) rates plus trade remedy measures, if any. For example, India’s shrimp exports have a zero MFN rate. But it already attracts a 2.49 per cent anti-dumping duty and a 5.77 per cent countervailing duty.

So from August 7, Indian shrimp will face a 33.26 per cent levy (25 per cent plus 2.49 per cent plus 5.77 per cent). From August 27, domestic shrimp will attract a 58.26 per cent duty in the US (50 per cent plus 2.49 per cent plus 5.77 per cent).

* Are there any other tariffs?

Yes. The US has imposed sector-specific tariffs on three categories – steel and aluminium (50 per cent); copper (50 per cent), and auto parts (25 per cent. These are also additional duties (means over and above existing levies, if any).

*Which all sectors or product categories are exempted from these tariffs?

According to think tank GTRI, the 50 per cent tariffs will not be applicable on the exempted categories included finished pharmaceutical drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), and other key drug inputs; energy products such as crude oil, refined fuels, natural gas, coal, and electricity; critical minerals; and a wide range of electronics and semiconductors, including computers, tablets, smartphones, solid-state drives, flat panel displays, and integrated circuits.

In 2024-25, the bilateral trade between India and the US stood at USD 131.8 billion (USD 86.5 billion exports and USD 45.3 billion imports).

*Which are the main export sectors that will bear the brunt of the high tariffs?

Sectors include textiles/ clothing, gems and jewellery, shrimp, leather and footwear, chemicals, and electrical and mechanical machinery.

*How much were India’s exports from these sectors in the last fiscal?

Shrimp (USD 2 billion), organic chemicals (USD 2.7 billion), carpets (USD 1.2 billion), apparel-knitted (USD 2.7 billion), apparel – woven (2.7 billion), textiles, made ups (USD 3 billion), diamonds, gold and products (USD 10 billion), machinery and mechanical appliances (USD 7.7 billion), furniture, bedding, mattresses (USD 1.1 billion), and vehicle and parts (USD 2.6 billion).

*What are the views of exporters on these tariffs?

Seafood exporter Yogesh Gupta: Now India’s shrimp will become expensive in the US market. Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI): Huge setback. Deeply concerned. It will have a potential adverse impact. Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewellery: The move is a severe setback.

GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava: The tariffs are expected to make Indian goods far costlier in the US, with potential to cut US-bound exports by 40-50 per cent. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO): The announcement is “extremely shocking” and will impact 55 per cent of India’s exports to America.

*What are the tariffs on India’s trade competitors?

After the new levy, India will attract the highest tariff of 50 per cent along with Brazil. After this, India’s competitors will be much better placed in the US market as their duty is lower – Myanmar (40 per cent), Thailand and Cambodia (both 36 per cent), Bangladesh (35 per cent), Indonesia (32 per cent), China and Sri Lanka (both 30 per cent), Malaysia (25 per cent), Philippines and Vietnam (both 20 per cent).

Published on August 7, 2025

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RBI survey shows uptick in urban consumer confidence in July 2025

by Hansraj Agrawal | Aug 7, 2025 | Business

This was supported by gains in non-essential spending, which registered a rare positive net sentiment of 0.4, a notable shift from -3.4 in May
| Photo Credit:
REUTERS

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday released the results of its July 2025 round of the Urban Consumer Confidence Survey (UCCS), which showed a marginal improvement in the sentiment of urban households.

According to the bi-monthly survey conducted between July 1-12 across 19 major cities, covering 5,592 respondents, the Current Situation Index (CSI) rose to 96.5 in July from 95.4 in May, marking a 1.1-point increase. The improvement was attributed to better consumer perceptions on income, spending, and general economic conditions, despite persisting concerns on employment and price levels.

The Future Expectations Index (FEI), which captures consumer outlook for the next one year, also edged up by 1.3 points to 124.7 from 123.4 in the previous round, reflecting sustained optimism about the economic outlook, income growth, and future spending.

Notably, pessimism surrounding the current price situation and inflation eased for the third straight survey round. The net response on price levels improved to -87.0 in July from -88.5 in May.

While the net perception regarding current income improved to 2.1 (from 0.4 in May), expectations of future income remained broadly stable, with the net response rising marginally from 52.3 to 52.6.This indicates that while more households feel their incomes have improved recently, their expectations for the future remain steady.

On employment front, the current sentiment dipped with the net response falling to -6.7 in July from -5.9 in May.However, forward-looking optimism persisted as expectations for employment in the next one year saw an uptick in the net response to 31.0 from 29.8 earlier.

Spending trends continued to reflect strong consumer confidence. The net response for current spending improved to 78.0, while expectations for future spending rose to 80.0. This was supported by gains in non-essential spending, which registered a rare positive net sentiment of 0.4, a notable shift from -3.4 in May, and future expectations on this front climbed to 15.0 from 13.8.

Essential spending remained consistently high with a net response of 86.5 for current perception and 86.2 for future expectations. The RBI reiterated that the views expressed in the survey are those of the respondents and may not necessarily reflect the central bank’s own stance.

Published on August 7, 2025

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Crude oil prices rise as Trump hits India with 50% tariffs over Russian oil imports

by Hansraj Agrawal | Aug 7, 2025 | Business

Crude oil futures rose on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced a fresh 25% tariff on Indian imports, citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
| Photo Credit:
REUTERS/Eli Hartman

Crude oil futures traded higher on Thursday morning after US President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs on India.

At 9.56 am on Thursday, October Brent oil futures were at $67.46, up by 0.85 per cent, and September crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $64.95, up by 0.93 per cent. August crude oil futures were trading at ₹5705 on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹5713, down by 0.14 per cent, and September futures were trading at ₹5638 against the previous close of ₹5642, down by 0.07 per cent.

On Wednesday, Trump announced an additional 25 per cent tariff on imports from India as punishment for India’s purchase of Russian oil. This tariff will be imposed in three weeks.

This will be in addition to the 25 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian goods, which is scheduled to take effect on August 7.

In response to the US move to impose a total 50 per cent tariff on India, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that the action was unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable. India will take all necessary actions to protect its national interests, the MEA said.

Analyst take

Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, said oil prices pushed lower on Wednesday despite Trump slapping an additional 25 per cent tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil.

The reaction could suggest a few things. Firstly, the market remains hopeful that the tariffs, effective August 27, will ultimately not be implemented. Secondly, the additional tariff will not prompt India to cease buying Russian oil. “Finally, even if India moves to alternative supplies, we may not see a reduction in global supply, with Russia finding other buyers for its oil,” he said.

On the likely meeting between Trump and the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine, he said if this goes ahead, and depending on how things play out, concerns over secondary tariffs may fade.

Stating that countries facing potential secondary tariffs must weigh the benefits of buying discounted Russian crude against the potential cost to trade with the US, Patterson said: “Indian exports to the US total around $87 billion. The savings India amasses from purchasing discounted Russian crude oil will be a fraction of this, something in the region of $6 billion. Therefore, we feel it’s pretty clear: Would India put at risk $87 billion worth of exports to save around $6 billion on oil imports?”

Sanctions deadline

Friday is the deadline that Trump set for Russia to come to a peace deal with Ukraine. Failing to do so means the US could announce further sanctions against Russia, Patterson said.

Meanwhile, official data released by the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) showed a decline in the US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 1.

According to the US EIA, commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3 million barrels for the week ending August 1. At 423.7 million barrels, US crude oil inventories were about 6 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels from last week and were about 1 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week and were about 16 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year.

Broader commodities

August natural gas futures were trading at ₹272.10 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹270/50, up by 0.59 per cent.

On the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), August guar gum contracts were trading at ₹9825 in the initial hour of trading on Thursday, against the previous close of ₹9762, up 0.65 per cent.

August cottonseed oilcake futures were trading at ₹3246 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹3240, up by 0.19 per cent.

Published on August 7, 2025

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