Despite the US President Donald Trump’s assertion that India has promised to halt Russian crude oil imports, analysts and refiners say a complete halt is “extremely unlikely” at least for the next two to three months.

Moreover, they caution that if India did completely halt Russian cargoes, the implications for the world’s fastest growing economy could be “disruptive”.

Besides, trade sources, refiners and analysts clarified that thus far, there is no diktat from the government to stop purchases of crude oil from Moscow.

Logistics also supports their claim: typically, cargoes from Russia are booked about 10 weeks in advance. Currently, vessels ferrying the commodity are at various stages of loading and transporting, which means that cargoes booked 10 weeks prior will continue to off-load crude oil at Indian ports, mostly on the west coast, till end-March or April 2026.

Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modelling, told businessline “India–US trade deal does not imply a near-term structural shift in India’s crude slate. Russian barrels remain sticky in the next term (around 2 months), while incremental diversification risk skews toward US and Venezuelan crude rather than a sharp displacement of Urals.”

Moody’s Ratings said “Even though India has reduced its purchase of crude oil from Russia in recent months, it is unlikely to cease all purchases immediately, which could be disruptive to India’s economic growth. A complete shift toward non-Russian oil could also tighten supply elsewhere, raise prices and pass through to higher inflation given that India is one of the world’s largest oil importers.”

However, Prashant Vasisht, Senior VP and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings, ICRA, said “The discounts on Russian crude oil were marginal prior to the US announcing sanctions on some Russian crude suppliers in October 2025, and ICRA estimates that replacement of Russian crude with market-priced crude would lead to an increase in the import bill of the country by less than 2 per cent.”

The announcement of the US-India trade deal includes removing the 25 per cent penal tariffs on India, with the latter agreeing to stop purchases of crude oil from Russia, he added.

Additionally, India is to step up purchases of US crude oil and potentially start buying oil from Venezuela. For the Indian refining sector, there are ample avenues including the US, to purchase crude as Russian crude accounted for less than 2 per cent of Indian crude imports prior to FY23, he said.

“Additionally Venezuelan crudes are heavy and sour and therefore cheaper and would be of interest to Indian refiners, many of whom can process these types of crudes,” Vasisht said.

Published on February 3, 2026

Shares of GAIL (India) rose sharply in early trade on Tuesday despite a steep year-on-year decline in December-quarter profit, before paring gains later in the session.

The stock climbed nearly 4 per cent to ₹166.49 on the NSE from its previous close of ₹160.39, but at 11.39 am was trading almost flat at ₹161.80.

The state-run gas utility reported a 58.5 per cent fall in standalone net profit for the quarter ended December 2025 to ₹1,602.57 crore, compared with ₹3,867.38 crore in the same period last year.

Revenue from operations slipped about 2.5 per cent to ₹34,075.81 crore in Q3FY26 from ₹34,957.76 crore a year earlier.

Brokerages attributed the weaker earnings primarily to softness in gas trading margins and continued pressure in the petrochemicals segment, partly offset by better performance in gas transmission.

JM Financial said GAIL’s standalone EBITDA at ₹26.6 billion came in below its estimate and consensus due to sharply lower profitability in gas trading and a steep fall in petchem earnings.

This was partially cushioned by stronger gas transmission EBITDA, helped by lower operating costs and slightly higher volumes, as well as better-than-expected performance in the LPG pipeline business.

The brokerage maintained its buy call while revising its target price to ₹205, citing expectations of steady growth in transmission volumes and sustained trading profitability over the medium term.

HDFC Securities, retained a buy rating at ₹196, even though the reported EBITDA and adjusted profit after tax were below its estimates. It said GAIL’s ability to defend gas marketing margins amid rising gas costs and a recovery in transmission volumes underpins its positive stance, while noting that petrochemical profitability remained a drag during the quarter.

Motilal Oswal reiterated its buy at target price of ₹190, projecting a 19 per cent compound annual growth in profit over FY26–28. The brokerage expects this to be driven by higher gas transmission volumes, improved performance in the petrochemical business as new capacity comes on stream and spreads recover, and healthy profitability in the trading segment. It also forecast return on equity stabilising above 12.5 per cent and strong free cash flow generation over the period.

Nuvama Institutional Equities, however, struck a cautious note, highlighting delays in tariff hikes and a prolonged downcycle in petrochemicals. The brokerage said GAIL’s Q3 EBITDA missed consensus expectations mainly because of weaker petchem earnings, while transmission volumes were flat year on year. It cut its FY27 and FY28 estimates and maintained a reduce rating with a target price of ₹151.

Published on February 3, 2026