India imported 160.1 lakh tonnes (lt) of edible oil worth ₹1.61 lakh crore ($18.3 billion) during the oil year 2024-25 (November-October) against 159.6 lt worth ₹1.31 lakh crore ($15.90 billion) in the oil year 2023-24. While the imports recorded flat growth, the value of imported commodities increased by 22.9 per cent in rupee terms.

Data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) showed a decline in the import of palm oil (includes crude palm oil and RBD palmolein) and sunflower oil. However, there was an increase in the import of soybean oil.

BV Mehta, Executive Director of SEA, said the Government increased the duty difference between crude and refined oils from 8.25 per cent to 19.25 per cent with effect from May 31, 2025. This resulted in the stoppage of the import of refined palm oil. However, a large quantity of refined soybean and sunflower oil was shipped to India from Nepal under SAFTA agreement at nil duty.

While total palm oil imports declined to 75.82 lt in oil year 2024-25 from 90.15 lt in oil year 2023-24, the import of soybean oil increased to 54.68 lt in 2024-25 from 34.40 lt in 2023-24. India’s sunflower oil imports declined to 29.36 lt in 2024-25 (35.06 lt).

Mehta said India’s imports from Nepal were reported at 7.5 lt in the oil year 2024-25 under SAFTA agreement at nil duty. These imports mainly included refined soybean and sunflower oil.

Import projection

“In the oil year 2025-26, considering the domestic oilseeds crop and growth in demand, import may be at the same level with plus or minus 3-4 lt. The quantum of type of oil imports will depend on the price parity and the availability in international market,” he said.

Import bill

He said India resorted to edible oil imports in 1990s to bridge the gap between supply and demand. In the initial period, the import volume was very low. However, in last 20 years (2004-05 to 2024-25), import volume has increased by 2.2 times while cost of import has gone up nearly 15 times.

In 2024-25, India had to spend nearly ₹1.61 lakh crore in 2024-25 for import of 160 lt of edible oils, he said.

Major exporters

Indonesia exported 27.53 lt of crude palm oil (CPO) and 8.32 lt of RBD palmolein during the oil year 2024-25. This was followed by Malaysia at 26.22 lt of CPO and 1.29 lt of RBD palmolein.

In case of crude soybean degummed oil, India imported 28.92 lt from Argentina followed by 11.43 lt from Brazil, 2.63 lt from Russia, and 1.88 lt from the US.

During the oil year 2024-25, India imported 14.71 lt of crude sunflower oil from Russia followed by 6.16 lt from Argentina and 5.76 lt from Ukraine.

India imported 6.59 lt of refined soybean oil and 56,972 tonnes of refined sunflower oil from Nepal during the year.

Outlook

Stating that India was fortunate to have normal rains in the last five straight years, he said the average production of oilseeds (as per government) is estimated at 42.6 million tonnes (mt) in the oil year 2024-25 (39.7 mt). This is apart from 9.1 mt of cottonseeds and half a mt of copra.

In India, current edible oil consumption is about 26 mt, growing at 3-4 per cent per annum. By 2029-30, India may need 30-32 mt of edible oils, while local production is expected to be 15-17 mt, he said, adding that India will continue to import edible oils to bridge the gap between demand and supply.

The Indian government is focusing on increasing the domestic production of palm oil. It aims to produce 3 mt by 2029-30 to meet the growing demand, he added.

Published on November 13, 2025

The higher growth numbers for Q2 (July-September) and the October inflation print will pose a serious dilemma for the RBI for a rate action in December, according to State Bank of India’s economic research department (ERD).

The ERD has estimated real GDP to expand by 7.5 per cent in Q2 FY26. The CPI (retail) inflation moderated to an all-time low of 0.25 per cent year-on-year in October 2025, helped by decline in food & beverages inflation as prices of vegetables, pulses and spices continue to decline while fruits inflation and oil & fat inflation moderated.

“Even for the February 2026 policy, there are many moving parts. For example, the full year GDP forecast for FY26 could be well over 7 per cent. The inflation prints for November and December (both months at below 1 per cent) will continue to pose the same (if not more) dilemma in February policy,” opined the ERD economists.

Post February policy, the new GDP series and new CPI series will be released, as well as the Q3 (October-December) GDP numbers.

“While Q3 GDP numbers could be even higher than Q2 GDP numbers, the new CPI series could strip off 20-30 basis points from headline numbers. The new GDP series — because of more formalisation of the economy that was not previously accounted for — could also move even higher,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI.

The ERD economists noted that the decisively low inflationary imprint at less than 4 per cent from February 2025 — and likely to continue for most of FY27 — put forth a perplexing dilemma, a kind of double whammy for the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) right through its ensuing February meet as the tactical flexibility to take a considered view, balancing the risks evenly, gets squeezed further.

Missing the benefits of a pre-emptive action (August/October policy), the Inflation Targeting Framework thus could have achieved its mandate. But it was constrained to deliver such with the inflation forecast one year ahead (Q1FY27) being put at 4.9 per cent, only to be revised downwards later to 4.5 per cent in October policy.

“Given this backdrop, specifically, the RBI’s October decision to maintain status quo on policy rates now appears to have substantially narrowed its tactical flexibility.

“Interestingly, the Q1FY27 inflation forecast is currently trending at below 3 per cent as per SBI estimates. Subsequently, sporadic talks of rate hikes in future, hinged to likelihood of prices rising in a not-so-distant time do not factor in the veritable constraints of forecasting subjugated to host of uncertainties in a multi-polarised world,” Ghosh said.

“With inflation forecasting on a monthly basis remaining a difficult task, the audacity of long-term forecasting can only weaken the central bank’s communication with market forces, an agent holds utmost importance in these trying times, we believe,” he added.

“Under these circumstances, we believe December rate cut is a close call and not a given. It will entirely depend on how RBI is able to communicate to the market a rate cut when growth numbers are in excess of 7 per cent. Does the central bank talk about an aspirational growth rate?”

“It remains to be seen, but central bank communication could take interesting turn in December policy if RBI had to cut rates. Anyway, as an inflation-targeting central bank, the primary responsibility of RBI is to always cut rates first!” the ERD economists said.

Also, liquidity needs to be better calibrated going forward for smooth transition and transmission as credit demand looks set to trump deposit growth.

Published on November 13, 2025