The Reserve Bank of India’s survey of professional forecasters (SPF) has projected FY27 real GDP growth a tad lower at 6.5 per cent against the central bank’s projection of 6.6 per cent.

The SPF projected FY27 CPI inflation to be 20 basis points (bps) softer at 4.9 per cent against RBI’s projection of 5.1 per cent.

The aforementioned projections show that while professional forecasters are slightly bearish on growth, they have a better outlook on inflation as compared to RBI.

Forty panellists participated in the 100th round of the bi-monthly SPF, which was conducted during May 2026.

“So, this (difference in SPF and RBI estimates on real GDP growth and inflation) is a matter of perception….if you go back in the data and check, there will always be some difference because their methodologies may be different, their sample may be different.

“But, the elephant in the room is the Middle East situation. So, everything boils down to when this war ends. If it ends within, let’s say, 15-20 days, everything is on track. If it goes on for, let’s say, six months or eight months, all these calculations/ estimates could be under some kind of a strain,” said Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

In his second bi-monthly monetary policy review statement on June 5th, Governor Sanjay Malhotra observed that CPI inflation remains below the (4 per cent) target despite global shock as the pass-through to domestic prices has been limited.

“While the baseline projections point towards headline inflation firming up towards the upper tolerance level (6 per cent) in Q3 (October-December) FY27, the impact of the supply shock is expected to wane Q4 (January-March) onwards. The underlying inflation pressures continue to remain benign at this juncture,” he said.

However, generalisation of inflation through second-round effects on expectations and wages is a distinct possibility, warranting a close vigil. The outlook also remains clouded due to the sub-normal south-west monsoon forecast and El Niño risks, the Governor said.

As for growth, Malhotra noted that the MPC (monetary policy committee) noted that elevated energy prices coupled with global supply constraints are having adverse spillovers on economic activity.

“While domestic demand remains resilient and manufacturing and services sectors activity continue to expand, there are incipient signs of moderation in some sectors as suggested by high frequency indicators,” he said.

For FY28, the SPF projected real GDP growth and CPI inflation at 6.9 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively.

The forecasters assigned highest probability to real GDP growth in the range of 6.5-6.9 per cent for both FY27 and FY28

In terms of quarterly path, real GDP growth (year-on-year/ yoy) is expected at 7.3 per cent during Q4 (January-March): FY26; and between 6.4-7.0 per cent in the four quarters of FY27.

CPI inflation

Headline CPI inflation (yoy) is expected at 4.0 per cent during Q1 (April-June) FY27 (RBI’s projection: 4.2 per cent).

Thereafter, it is expected to increase to 4.9 per cent in Q2 (July-September; RBI’s projection: 5.1 per cent) and further to 5.5 per cent in Q3 (October-December; 5.9 per cent) and then moderate to 5.2 per cent during Q4 (January-March; 5.4 per cent).

Core CPI (excluding food and fuel) inflation is expected at 3.9 per cent during Q1FY27; thereafter it is projected to remain between 4.4-4.7 per cent in the subsequent three quarters.

Current Account Deficit

Current account deficit (CAD) is expected at 2.1 per cent (of GDP at current market prices) for FY27 (against 1.5 per cent estimated in the last round) and at 1.2 per cent for FY28 (unchanged).

Published on June 7, 2026

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Stock market this week will track simmering tensions in West Asia, its impact on crude oil prices, and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said.

The trading week may begin on a cautious note following a sharp decline in the US markets over the weekend, an expert said.

Besides, progress of monsoon and inflation data announcement will also be important factors to watch out for.

“This week will be driven by key inflation, and global macroeconomic data releases. In India, investors will closely track inflation data for May, scheduled for release on June 12, along with foreign exchange reserves data on the same day.

“Globally, developments around the US-Iran negotiations and their implications for crude oil prices, currency movements, and overall risk sentiment will remain in focus,” Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

US markets ended sharply lower on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite tumbling 4.18 per cent. The S&P 500 dived 2.64 per cent and Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.35 per cent.

“The week ahead is likely to begin on a cautious note following a sharp decline in global markets, particularly AI-related technology stocks. On the positive side, domestic markets have some supportive factors in the form of resilient GDP growth, strength in the rupee following the RBI policy announcement, and a meaningful decline in crude oil prices,” Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.

Developments on the US-Iran front remain highly fluid and continue to generate volatility in global markets, he said.

“This week will also be data-heavy, with several important macroeconomic releases from both the US and China. Among them, the US inflation data scheduled for Wednesday will be particularly critical, as it could significantly influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy path and set the tone for global markets,” Meena added.

Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex declined 532.4 points, or 0.71 per cent, and the NSE Nifty dipped 181.05 points, or 0.76 per cent.

“The Nasdaq fell 4 per cent, marking its worst single-day decline since April 2025, as investors aggressively reduced exposure to semiconductor and technology stocks. Given the significant weight of IT in Indian indices, this weakness could spill over into domestic markets and keep sentiment under pressure during the early part of the week,” Hariprasad K, Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said.

Globally, the key event to watch will be the US CPI inflation data, he said, adding that a softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes of future Federal Reserve rate cuts and improve risk appetite across global markets.

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Published on June 7, 2026