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Maize farmers likely to shift to cotton, soybean, paddy, ragi

Maize farmers likely to shift to cotton, soybean, paddy, ragi

by | Jun 5, 2026 | Business


India’s overall kharif (monsoon season) acreage is expected to remain resilient amid predictions of a deficient monsoon. However, yields will depend on three factors — spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, pest and disease management and fertiliser availability. This is despite adequate availability of water, which will facilitate timely land preparation and sowing activities across major agricultural regions, according to a research report by Crisil.

Historically, El Niño has posed significant risks to India’s agriculture and water security. Since 1950, 7 out of 16 El Niño years resulted in below-normal monsoon and widespread drought, making it a closely monitored phenomenon by India Meteorological Department (IMD) authorities, the report said, adding the 2026 kharif season will be under the influence of El Niño conditions.

Pointing out that deviations in rainfall during the June-September monsoon season will have significant implications for agricultural production in India as the period shares 70-80 per cent of annual rainfall, the report said that the IMD forecast indicates a predominance of below normal rainfall conditions across most of the country.

M.P. cotton area to rise

However, as per IMD’s release, the probabilities of normal to above-normal rainfall are largely restricted to the western Himalayan region (primarily Ladakh and parts of Jammu and Kashmir), parts of the north-east and some isolated pockets of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha.

“Amidst anticipation of below normal rainfall conditions farmers will be prompted to make more strategic crop choices guided not only by the rainfall outlook but also by relative profitability, procurement support and prevailing market conditions,” the report said.

As the overall maize area is set to decline, the direction of crop substitution will vary from state to state, said Pushan Sharma, lead author of the report. For instance, the shift is towards paddy in Punjab, soybean in Rajasthan, chilli and cotton in Telangana, and ragi in southern Karnataka. But, in Madhya Pradesh, the largest grower of soyabean, the cotton acreage is expected to increase due to shifting from both maize and soybean, he said.

Food output risk

In 2025-26, India’s maize output was at record 55.09 million tonnes (mt), up 27 per cent from 43.41 mt in 2024-25. The government has also fixed a lower target of 52.50 mt for 2026-27.

According to another report by ICICI Bank, there is a significant risk to food production outlook this year due to below normal monsoon in northwest, central and southern regions. As high as 40 per cent of total crop production in the country is concentrated in the Monsoon Core Zone, which is likely to see lower rainfall coverage this year, it said. Rain-fed crops such as pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds and spices could be impacted, it added.

ICICI Bank further observed that since irrigation for coarse cereals stands at 19-42 per cent of total sown area, it makes them highly vulnerable. In case of pulses, most of the production is seen in Central India (48per cent of total), followed by Northwest (27 per cent) and south peninsula (14 per cent), and these three regions are predicted to have below normal rainfall. “With the higher irrigation coverage for paddy, the delayed or below normal rains should ideally have lesser impact on the crop sowing,” it added.

Likely major deficit States

“As of May 29, reservoir storage levels across the country remained healthy, standing 19 per cent above the normal storage and marginally (1 per cent) higher than the corresponding period last year. Adequate availability of water is expected to facilitate timely land preparation and sowing activities across major agricultural regions,” Crisil said.

Despite three-fourths of the kharif-sown area being projected to receive below-normal rainfall, the impact on early season crop establishment may remain relatively limited, the Crisil report said.

Major agricultural states such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka are expected to witness rainfall deficits. However, reservoir storage remains comfortably above normal storage across key regions — at 44 per cent higher than normal in the western region where 48 per cent area under assured irrigation, 34 per cent in the northern region (where 65 per cent area irrigated), 20 per cent in the central region (76 per cent irrigated) and 6 per cent in the southern region (52 per cent area irrigated).

Moisture stress vulnerability

On expected yield, it said that July is primarily associated with crop establishment and vegetative growth, August and September coincide with flowering, fruit setting, pod development and boll formation stages, making crops increasingly vulnerable to moisture stress as the season progresses. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall will remain the key determinant of final crop outcome.

It has also said that higher temperatures and uneven rainfall in the first half of season are expected to intensify pest and disease outbreaks across crops such as chilli, cotton, soyabean, pulses and vegetables. Besides, urea stocks were 71.58 lakh tonnes (lt), diammonium phosphate (DAP) 22.35 lt, muriate of potash (MOP) 12.46 lt and complex fertilisers 57.56 lt as on April 27, 2026.

“Despite these levels, availability is expected to be tight for urea and DAP, with inventories falling short of the projected demand of 120-125 lt in Urea and 30-35 lt in DAP, during May-August,” it said.

Published on June 5, 2026



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India is largest source for immigrant founders of US unicorns, but still not shooting for the stars

India is largest source for immigrant founders of US unicorns, but still not shooting for the stars

by | Jun 5, 2026 | Business


In an indication of the role played by Indian immigrants in the US innovation ecosystem, India has emerged as the single largest source country for immigrant founders of US unicorns (billion-dollar startups). Indian immigrants founded or co-founded 96 US unicorns, the highest for any country. Israel ranks second with 60, followed by the UK with 47 and China with 41, according to a new National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) analysis.

However, despite its outsized representation, American unicorns founded by Indian immigrants are not playing in the big leagues yet as Indian immigrants seem to have taken to entrepreneurship only in recent years.

Perplexity, founded by Aravind Srinivas just over three years ago, is the highest-valued US unicorn founded by an Indian at $20 billion. It ranks as the 12th biggest unicorn by valuation. The majority of the 96 start-ups founded by Indians are valued below $10 billion.

The US billion-dollar companies with at least one immigrant founder with the highest valuations are SpaceX ($1.5 trillion), Anthropic ($965 billion), OpenAI ($852 billion), Databricks ($134 billion), and Stripe ($106.7 billion), among others.

Prasanna Sankar (Rippling), Deepak Pathak and Abhinav Gupta (Skild AI), Mohit Aron (Cohesity), Prabhakar Reddy and Raghu Yarlagadda (FalconX) and Manu Kumar (Carta) are among the founders of other top US unicorns founded by Indians, as per NFAP.

Indians feature prominently among founders who first arrived in the US as international students. There are 76 Indians who came to the US as international students and founded unicorns.

Experts note that the social construct of Indians immigrating to the US is such that they aim for a stable job rather than start a risky venture. The natural trait of the non-entrepreneurial Indian middle class is to be great employees and executives, they add.

“Given the relatively humble backgrounds Indians grew up in (in their home countries), they are less likely to “shoot for the stars” like an Elon Musk would do. However, serial entrepreneurs of Indian-origin, especially those that are well set financially after exiting their first ventures, are often more ambitious and more successful in terms of scale and impact,” Arun Natarajan, founder and MD, Venture Intelligence, said.

Further, as a percentage of immigrants, the number of unicorns founded by Indians is lower than that of other countries given that employer-sponsored visas like H-1Bs make it more cumbersome for Indians to start up and run ventures.

But Thillai Rajan, IIT-M professor and Head of Centre for Research on Start-Ups, says that even when the number of unicorn founders is seen on a per capita basis, India would rank higher than China, another major immigrant group in the US. “The reason I believe is that India and Indians are traditionally more entrepreneurial as compared to the Chinese,” he said.

Overall, immigrants have founded or co-founded 59 per cent (455 out of 775) of America’s privately held startup companies valued at $1 billion or more, the NFAP report shows.

“The collective value of the 455 immigrant-founded billion-dollar companies is $5 trillion, which is more than the total market value of companies listed on stock markets in all but 7 countries, including the UK and Germany, and a demonstration of the wealth-creating power of immigrants,” NFAP said in its research.

Published on June 5, 2026



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Rupee gets booster shot as RBI announces measures to attract foreign capital

Rupee gets booster shot as RBI announces measures to attract foreign capital

by | Jun 5, 2026 | Business


The rupee got a booster shot on Friday, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announcing crucial measures to attract foreign capital via foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, overseas borrowings, government securities and equity investments.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India, assessed that the RBI’s measures potential capital flows of at least $40 billion and the rupee pulling back towards 92-93 levels. The measures buoyed the rupee, which posted it biggest single day gain since April 2 on Friday. It perked up 84 paise to close at 94.9450/dollar against the previous close of 95.89.

The five measures announced by the RBI to attract foreign capital include a facility for bearing the full hedging cost to banks for raising fresh 3- to 5-year foreign currency non-resident (bank)/FCNR (B) deposits and a facility of concessional forex swap to incentivise external commercial borrowings (ECBs) by public sector undertakings (PSUs).

Further, for government securities (G-Secs) under the fully accessible route (FAR), the RBI will expand the universe of ‘specified securities’ by including all new issuances of 15-, 30- and 40-year tenor G-secs. In addition, limits pertaining to short-term investment, concentration and individual securities on FPI investment under the general route will be removed.

tax benefits

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said these measures, along with the tax benefits provided by the government, should help attract foreign capital for government borrowing.

The RBI will up the limits for investment by NRIs and OCIs in equity instruments traded on the stock market without SEBI registration are being increased. Further, the same facility will be extended to all individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs) on par with NRIs and OCIs.

The central bank will also restore the time for realisation of export proceeds to nine months from the earlier 15 months. Malhotra said: “In terms of the quantum, we are not targeting any particular amount. but we do expect healthy flows. We are quite confident of a very healthy, a much better balance of payments this year as compared to what it would have been otherwise.”

Banking expert V Viswanathan observed that no bank is offering attractive rates on FCNR (B) deposits though the RBI permits them to quote rates up to overnight alternative reference rate (ARR) plus 400 basis points (bps) for a deposit of 1-3 years and spread of 500 bps for tenor of 3-5 years.

“Part of the reason is the banks have to bear the exchange risk, which they cover themselves using forward contracts or swap facilities. Now since the full hedging cost is passed onto RBI in respect of FCNR (B) deposits for 3-5 years, the banks may be tempted to raise interest rates for this bucket [as the hedging cost is zero for new deposits]. This may increase the US dollar inflows,” he said.

V Rama Chandra Reddy, Head – Treasury, Karur Vysya Bank, said the RBI has introduced a strong incentive package for FCNR(B) deposits by permitting banks to offer full hedging support on 3- to 5-year deposits and exempting incremental mobilisation from reserve requirements.

“This lowers the overall cost for banks, enabling them to offer more attractive rates and attract stable foreign currency deposits, while leveraging the tax-free nature of FCNR(B) schemes,” he said.

Reddy noted that the concessional swap arrangement for PSU borrowings under ECBs is expected to reduce hedging costs and improve the economics of overseas borrowing. This could encourage higher ECB issuance by eligible entities, resulting in additional foreign currency inflows.

Published on June 5, 2026



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4% inflation goal remains ‘sacrosanct’, says RBI Governor

4% inflation goal remains ‘sacrosanct’, says RBI Governor

by | Jun 5, 2026 | Business


Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra
| Photo Credit:
ANI

Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday defended the central bank’s policy stance, reiterating its commitment to the 4 per cent inflation target while stressing the need to look through temporary supply-side shocks. Addressing the post-policy press conference, he also expressed confidence about stronger capital inflows and clarified the rationale behind PSU-focused ECB swap facility. Excerpts:

On capital inflows from the measures taken

We are not targeting any particular amount, but we do expect healthy flows both from ECB and other various measures that have been announced today. And there were other measures which were taken even earlier whether it is in terms of the liberalised ECB scheme that we brought in and the measures that I mentioned in my monetary policy statement with regard to government initiatives in terms of the trade agreements etc. All those put together, we are quite confident of very healthy, a much better view this year as compared to what it would have been otherwise.

On inflation and the 4% target level

It is a target which is sacrosanct for us. It is a target which the government has given to us. The target is not in abeyance at all. It remains 4% and that is what our endeavour is. But keep in mind that this target is to be met over a period. It is a medium term kind of a target, and it is not advisable to take action for each and every small or large, especially small, deviations from the target because that can have consequences which can be disproportionate for growth. So, our target remains the same. It is 4%.

We have to watch and see as to whether this shock supply, because it is a supply shock, whether its effect is going to persist or whether it is going to wane away. We will be very watchful if inflation is getting generalised, building into expectations and accordingly take action.

It is neither possible nor is it advisable to have it pegged in a very small range and that is why we have this range. The range of 2-6% is primarily for this purpose. While the endeavour, the focus, the target is 4%, but there can be fluctuations around that and if they are really fluctuations, and the effect and inflation is coming down on its own, then we do not want to apply monetary policy tools, which will have other adverse consequences.

On the updated list for upper layer NBFCs

See, the list is there already. So it continues till the time we have a new list…. we’ll do it shortly.

On differential rates of interest on deposits

We have a very consistent and a very clear policy for deposits as to when they can have differential rates. I think for certain categories of people like senior citizens and then depending on tenor and things like that you can have differential rates, but they have to be transparent at the same time. You have to display them to everyone clearly and any differential rate beyond that, if someone is giving, is certainly not acceptable.

On swap facility for ECBs only for PSUs

The public sector entities are a special category, and they are more in areas where we feel the needs of the economy are more ..and the benefits are also passed on to the general public because they are catering more to public utilities, infrastructure. So the benefits go to a much larger section of society when we give it to the public sector undertaking.

If you give it to private, then the benefits are not as widely dispersed as they are when we give such kind of a benefit to the PSUs.

On Access to Mythos

To the best of my knowledge, it has not yet been given. There is talk, there are discussions on cloud and other, hopefully we will get. This is an item that has been engaging our attention, both at the government level and at the financial sector, inter-regulatory forum level. India has been included as one of the countries that will be part of this project with select corporates and financial entities having access to the project. But the details of which are still fully awaited. And once this opportunity opens up, how exactly to make use of it in consultation with government and with other regulators, we will take further steps.

Published on June 5, 2026



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RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, policy stance neutral

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, policy stance neutral

by | Jun 5, 2026 | Business


Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo at its headquarters in Mumbai

Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth amid the continuing uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the West Asia conflict prompted the six-member rate-setting panel to unanimously stand pat on the repo rate in its third meeting on the trot.

The repo rate (the interest rate at which banks borrow funds from the RBI to overcome short-term liquidity mismatches) is currently at 5.25 per cent. The MPC also continued with the neutral monetary policy stance. The RBI upped the FY27 retail inflation projection 5.1 per cent (earlier projection: 4.6 per cent) and cut the real GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent (6.9 per cent).

The central bank, on its part, announced crucial measures to attract foreign capital, via Foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits,external commercial borrowings by public sector undertakings, government securities and equity investments.

The aforementioned measures, which could bring in about $40 billion of capital flows, buoyed the rupee, which appreciated 84 paise on Friday to close at 94.9450/dollar.

While retail inflation is projected above 5 per cent from Q2 onwards (above MPC’s 4 per cent target but below its upper tolerance level of 6 per cent), economists are divided on the future rate trajectory, with some expecting the committee to stay on hold in FY27 and others seeing a 25 basis points hike in its next meeting in August.

Pass-through of higher global energy prices to retail fuel prices, commercial LPG, industrial raw materials, chemicals, ruber and plastic products and their second-round impact could exert upside pressure on retail inflation, per the monetary policy statement.

Governor Sanjay Malhotra observed that the underlying inflation pressures continue to remain benign (with the April 2026 inflation reading at 3.5 per cent) at this juncture. However, he cautioned that generalisation of inflation through second-round effects on expectations and wages is a distinct possibility, warranting a close vigil.

The Governor emphasised that it is the MPC’s endeavour to meet the 4 per cent retail inflation target over the medium term.

“It is not advisable to take action for each and every small deviation from the target because that can have consequences which can be disproportionate for growth….We will be data dependent. We have to watch and see as to whether the effect of this supply shock is going to persist or going to wane,” he said.

Referring to the status quo on repo rate, Malhotra remarked that MPC was of the opinion that there are considerable risks to the baseline assessment of inflation and growth due to the uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the conflict, magnitude of its spillover effects and the pace of restoration of supply chains.

“…Although risks of higher inflation have amplified, the MPC felt it would be prudent to wait for greater clarity to emerge,” he said.

oil prices

Malhotra noted that the adverse implications of the extended disruption in supply chains and elevated energy prices are reflected in the moderation of growth and increase in inflation projections from the April policy. He said international crude oil prices (Indian basket) have averaged around US$110/barrel in April-May 2026, and indications are that average oil prices for 2026-27 would be substantially higher than what was assumed ($85 per barrel) during the last policy statement.

The Governor stated that going ahead, the rise in prices of energy and other inputs, coupled with supply disruptions, is likely to weigh on economic activity. CS Setty, Chairman, State Bank of India and Indian Banks Association (IBA), said the RBI has struck a prudent balance by preserving growth while simultaneously addressing the external uncertainties.

“The measures announced to attract foreign capital are timely and comprehensive. These steps should help enhance capital inflows, deepen bond markets, improve liquidity and provide support to the rupee,” he said.

Published on June 5, 2026



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RBI to give banks greater flexibility in pricing rupee bulk deposits

RBI to give banks greater flexibility in pricing rupee bulk deposits

by | Jun 5, 2026 | Business


Rupee logo at Reserve Bank of India (RBI) headquarters in Mumbai

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) plans to give banks greater flexibility in pricing rupee bulk deposits while ensuring transparency and uniformity in the disclosure of deposit interest rates, per draft amendment directions.

The requirement for ensuring transparency and uniformity in the disclosure of deposit interest rates comes in the backdrop of alleged disguising of extra interest payments as marketing expenditure on deposits placed by a Maharashtra government-owned entity with HDFC Bank. The bank has denied the allegations.

As per the Reserve Bank of India (Commercial Banks – Interest Rate on Deposits) Amendment Directions, 2026, interest rates payable on deposits shall be strictly, as per the schedule of interest rates, disclosed in advance on the bank’s website before the commencement of the business day.

Further, in the case of domestic rupee deposits and rupee deposits of non-residents, a bank shall have the freedom to offer differential interest rate on bulk deposits, by considering the differential run-off rate applicable to deposits or unsecured wholesale funding from retail or non-retail customers, respectively under the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) framework.

The RBI has invited comments / feedback on the draft Amendment Directions from the regulated entities and members of public/other stakeholders on or before June 20.

Published on June 5, 2026



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