Nifty outlook as Oil surpasses $100/barrel-mark

An analysis of historical episodes of a surge in crude oil prices showed that a sustained spike in Brent crude futures beyond the $100-mark triggers a negative correlation with the benchmark index, weighing on market sentiment. 

“Crude oil price, at this juncture, is encapsulating the ‘sum of all fears’ arising out of the significant escalation of the conflict in the Gulf region. A sharp rise in crude oil above the $100 per barrel-mark would mean that markets are discounting severe oil supply disruption for a longer period of time,” ICICI Securities said. 

On Monday, Brent crude futures leaped over 25 per cent intraday to hit a high of $116.7 per barrel-mark in the international markets, after major West Asia oil producers cut output amid closure of Strait of Hormuz (SoH) due to the Iran war. 

This is the first time since the Russia-Ukraine war (in 2022) that oil prices have topped the psychological mark of $100. 

By noon, oil prices were mildly off highs at $110/barrel. Notably, Gulf producers are cutting back on oil production as barrels are piling up due to the closure of the SoH, leading to a lack of storage space. 

Over the weekend, Kuwait, the fifth-biggest producer in Opec, announced precautionary cuts to its oil production and refinery output, while Iraq, the second-biggest OPEC producer, has trimmed production from its three main southern oilfields by 70 per cent to 1.3 million barrels per day. 

Why rising crude oil prices halt Nifty rally?

Rising crude oil prices negatively affect equity markets due to their broad impact on inflation, corporate profitability, and external balances. 

For India, which imports nearly 80-85 per cent of its oil requirements – 50 per cent of which comes via the Strait of Hormuz — a sharp rise in crude oil price leads to higher fuel costs, wider trade deficits, and pressure on economic growth.

Oil tops $100/barrel: How much can Nifty fall?

In the worst-case scenario, ICICI Securities said that the Nifty 50 could decline about 10 per cent from its pre-conflict level of around 25,178, while market valuations could compress with the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to around 18x, closer to post-pandemic lows. Currently, Nifty50’s P/X stood at 21.4 x as of March 6, 2026. 

“The earnings yield could rise to ~5.6 per cent (highest in the post-Covid era), while the relative spread of bond yield over earnings yield could dip to around 100bps; thereby, increasing the relative attractiveness of equities over bonds (assuming bond yields do not spike),” the brokerage said. 

Market-cap to GDP ratio (m-cap/GDP ratio) – widely known as the Buffett Indicator of valuation — could drift closer to 110 per cent as the drawdown in mid and smallcap stocks could be higher, it said. 

Impact of higher crude oil prices on Indian economy

A sustained spike in crude, ICICI Securities noted, would have broader macroeconomic consequences. India’s net oil import bill stood at around $122 billion in the previous financial year (FY250, equivalent to about 3.1 per cent of the GDP. 

A 10-per cent rise in crude oil prices could raise the import bill by about $12 billion or 0.3 per cent of GDP, potentially widening the current account deficit and putting pressure on the balance of payments. 

“Rising crude prices could also push up inflation because fuel components such as petrol, diesel and LPG have a higher weight in the consumer price index.  

Elevated inflation, in turn, may affect demand and corporate earnings as companies face higher fuel and raw material costs,” the brokerage said.

Sectors to avoid right now

In this backdrop, the brokerage said that industries such as automobiles, aviation, oil marketing companies, city gas distribution firms, building materials, industrials, and consumer companies could see margin pressure in the near-term. 

Export-oriented sectors with exposure to the Gulf region, including financials and real estate, may also face additional risks if the geopolitical situation worsens, it said. 

That said, sharp spikes in oil prices may create volatility but could also offer opportunities. 

“Temporary spikes in crude oil prices have created buying opportunities in the past.  Last instance of the negative correlation of crude prices and Nifty was witnessed in 2022. The resulting volatility created the foundation for the big equity rally seen over CY23,” it said. 
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