AWL Agri Business shares oversold; is it a ‘Buy’ now?

  Shares of AWL Agri Business, formerly known as Adani Wilmar, hit their 16th record low in calendar year 2026 as they touched a low of ₹176.93 per share on March 5. The stock has been in a downward spiral this calendar year, plunging over 25 per cent during the period.  The stock is also down 80 per cent from its record high level of ₹878, registered on April 28, 2022.  Analysts reasoned that the stock has been in the bears’ grip amid changes in the company’s ownership and weak profitability.

‘Street weighs near-term overhangs’

Sourav Choudhary, managing director of Raghunath Capital, attributed the steep erosion in AWL Agri stock to the Adani Group’s exit in November 2025, which caused large secondary transactions and a persistent supply of shares in the market.]  “At the same time, AWL Agri operates in a structurally low-margin edible oil segment, where profitability is highly sensitive to global edible oil prices, import duties, and currency movements. Recent quarterly results highlighted margin pressure despite stable revenue growth, reinforcing the Street’s view that the core business remains commodity-linked rather than a high-margin FMCG play,” he said.  In the October-December 2025 quarter (Q3FY26), AWL Agri’s gross profit declined 12.9 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to ₹1,934.2 crore, with gross margin contracting 279 basis points (bps) on the back of higher input costs and continued pressure in palm oil.  Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation), too, declined 30 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹550 crore, with Ebitda margin contracting 173bps Y-o-Y.  ALSO READ | West Asia war: RIL to benefit, OMCs, CGDs may face margin hit, says Nomura  While revenue grew 10 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹18,600 crore, its net profit fell 27 per cent to ₹287.7 crore.  The company, G Chokkalingam, founder and chief investment officer at Equinomics Research added, could continue to face margin pressure in Q4FY26 amid currency headwinds.  “AWL’s forex outflow stood at ₹28,000 crore at the end of Q3FY26, driven largely by palm oil imports. With the Indian rupee falling, the company’s import bill is expected to rise in Q4FY26,” he said. 
 
 

AWL Agri Stock: Time to buy?

Analysts predict near-term volatility in the stock, but a gradual rerating over the medium-to-long term as the company transitions from a price-led growth phase to a more volume and mix-driven recovery.  “The key monitorable will be the company’s shift towards higher-margin packaged foods, staples and value-added products under brands like Fortune and Kohinoor. If this portfolio transition gains scale and improves margins, the stock could see a gradual re-rating,” said Choudhary of Raghunath Capital.  G Chokkalingam, too, suggests long-term investors may add the stock on dips as the correction has brought the stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation multiple to 20-21x which, he believes, is attractive.  ICICI Securities has a ‘Buy’ rating (target: ₹300) because it expects better profitability in the medium-term. The brokerage has cut AWL’s earnings estimates by nearly 2 per cent for FY26, while increasing it by around 3 per cent for FY27–28. 

Technical outlook on AWL Agri Business

According to Hitesh Tailor, technical research analyst at Choice Equity Broking, AWL Agri stock is forming a ‘lower-high and lower-low’ pattern, signalling the sustained downtrend. 

The stock is below its key exponential moving averages on both the daily and weekly time-frames. Besides, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is in the oversold zone, it has not shown any strong bullish divergence or reversal signal, suggesting the stock lacks confirmation of a meaningful trend reversal,” he said.  Tailor sees immediate resistance for AWL stock around ₹200–₹205, with support near ₹170. “A break below ₹170 may trigger a decline towards ₹155 – ₹150 zone,” he said.  Anand James, chief market strategist at Geojit Investments, too, said AWL stock’s breakdown post November 2025, coinciding with Adani Group’s exit, has placed it in a “higher than usual risk zone”.  =================  Disclaimer: The views expressed by the brokerages/ analysts in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.