Stock trader's guide to navigating supply disruption amid Iran war

by Hansraj Agrawal | Mar 15, 2026 | Share Market

By Winnie Hsu, Nick Heubeck and Monique Mulima

The prospect of a prolonged Iran war and elevated oil prices is prompting stock investors to reassess a broader array of industries, including less obvious targets from food delivery firms to cosmetics makers as supply disruption intensifies.

Global stocks have lost 5.5 per cent since the conflict began, heading for their worst monthly performance since 2022, with Asia being the hardest hit. Traders — wary of resurgent inflation and the mounting cost of the war adding to budget deficits — pushed back their expectations for the next Federal Reserve interest-rate cut to mid-2027. While airlines and shipping firms are among those that have suffered the most from the conflict so far, defense and energy stocks have benefited.

A major US attack on the island that exports the bulk of Iran’s crude is raising fears of more widespread supply disruptions in the region, further straining oil and gas markets. As investors brace for wider fallout, attention is turning to previously overlooked pockets of risk — including chipmakers and clothing suppliers — amid concerns ranging from helium shortages to rising raw material costs.

“What began as a contained energy shock is rapidly metastasizing,” said Hebe Chen, senior market analyst at Vantage Global Prime. “The war premium is no longer an energy story — it’s a whole-market repricing, and the secondary victims are only just beginning to surface.”

Here’s a look at some of the sectors under increased investor scrutiny as the broader consequences of the war unfold.

Chipmakers

Semiconductor firms that had been riding the global AI boom are also caught up in the war-induced supply chain disruptions.

Qatar’s closure of a major liquefied natural gas plant after an Iranian drone attack has taken about a third of global helium production offline, Bloomberg Economics estimates. That’s a potential hit to chipmakers since it’s an essential component of production and there’s no ready substitute, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Deng.

Beyond the helium shortage, surging energy prices threaten to dampen demand for semiconductors by driving up the operational costs of AI data centers.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has shed more than 5 per cent since the conflict started, while Asian chip stocks including Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. have also fallen. Meanwhile, shares of helium manufacturer Linde India Ltd. have risen.

For now, the impact is expected to be contained. The margin impact should be modest, given the structural oversupply of helium in recent years and the multiple helium sourcing arrangement, according to UBS Group AG analysts including Sunny Lin.

TSMC has “around 6 months of safety inventory on hand — so they do not expect it to become an issue in the short term,” said Jefferies analyst William Beavington.

Others, however, are less optimistic.

“Potential disruption to semiconductor supply looks under-appreciated,” said Gary Tan, a fund manager at Allspring Global Investments. “Semiconductor fabs are among the most energy-intensive manufacturing facilities in the world and Taiwan and South Korea are heavily reliant on LNG.”

Food and Stoves

Supply disruptions in the Middle East, where India sources most of its gas, have created acute shortages in its cooking gas market.

As a result, food delivery companies are facing the prospect of slower orders as local restaurants consider shorter operating hours and reducing items on their menus to cope with an acute gas shortage. That has pummeled shares of Eternal Ltd. and Swiggy Ltd. as well as Jubilant Foodworks Ltd., a restaurant operator.

Fears of an extended cooking-gas shortage have boosted shares of manufacturers of electric cook-tops, such as TTK Prestige Ltd. and Stove Kraft Ltd., as consumers look for alternatives to gas.

Meanwhile, US ride-share and food delivery operators like Uber Technologies Inc., DoorDash Inc. and Lyft Inc. are facing their own hurdles. As Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh pointed out, fuel remains the largest variable cost for drivers, making these companies highly sensitive to oil shocks.

Automakers

Car makers may also suffer as higher oil prices threaten to stifle consumer demand. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Steve Man said that of the main US automakers, Ford Motor Co. is the most vulnerable because of the disproportionate amount of its revenue that comes from gas-guzzling pick-up trucks.

Toyota Motor Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. may face the most impact from the decrease in Middle East sales, as the region accounts for 17 per cent and 10 per cent of their total sales, respectively, according to Bernstein analysts including Eunice Lee. Hyundai shares have plummeted 23 per cent this month, with Toyota down 12 per cent.

The conflict also casts a shadow over Chinese auto exports, for which the Middle East has become a growing destination. Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp. may be most impacted with 9 per cent volume exposure, followed by SAIC Motor Corp., Chery Automobile Co., Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. and Great Wall Motor Co., according to Bernstein.

“Given that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for vehicle and parts shipments to the Middle East, a prolonged conflict and closure of the strait would hurt sales, increase logistics costs, and delay deliveries,” Lee said.

Retailers

In the retail sector, the pain is twofold. Rising oil prices drive up distribution costs while simultaneously draining the discretionary spending power of consumers at the pump, according to John Zolidis, president and founder of Quo Vadis Capital.

Shares of US-listed apparel brands and retailers have slid, with Lululemon Athletica Inc., Nike Inc., Macy’s Inc. and RH all seeing double-digit drops this month.

Clothing suppliers in China are also bracing for higher input costs, with chemical fibers such as polyester and acrylic — both oil-derived — widely used in garment manufacturing. Shares of textile materials maker Huafu Fashion Co. and downstream apparel maker Youngor Fashion Co. have been volatile as investors weighed the potential margin impact.

Fertilisers

As much as 35 per cent of global fertilizer raw materials pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Morningstar DBRS analyst Andrea Petroczi-Urban. This bottleneck is expected to drive North American fertilizer prices higher as global demand intensifies.

In anticipation of tightened supply, producers like Nutrien Ltd. and The Mosaic Co. have seen their stock prices climb.

The outlook is more somber across the Asia-Pacific region, which relies heavily on Middle Eastern imports. Morgan Stanley economists note that Australia is particularly exposed. The country’s main fertilizer stock Dyno Nobel Ltd. has fallen over 9 per cent this month, while Nufarm Ltd.’s shares have declined 4 per cent.

In India, officials have asked China to allow the sale of some urea cargoes as the war curtails the nation’s gas supplies, threatening fertilizer production in the agricultural powerhouse. Stocks including Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd. have dropped.

Chemicals

Around 15 per cent of global ethylene and polyethylene supply is directly impacted by the conflict, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Aleksey Yefremov. As global supplies tighten, demand for US chemicals is rising and firms like Dow Inc. and LyondellBasell Industries NV are expected to see their margins benefit.

Similarly, Chinese chemical stocks such as Hebei Jinniu Chemical Industry Co., have jumped about 80 per cent since the war began, as a string of industry players announced steep price hikes.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the production of ethylene. As a result, ethylene prices are surging — impacting industries that rely on it, from plastics and detergents to polyester and paint. Cosmetics-tied stocks in Europe like L’Oreal SA and LVMH will likely be in focus due to their heavy reliance on plastic.

The pain extends to the paint industry, where raw materials are largely oil-derived. ICICI Securities estimates that if oil stabilizes at $100 per barrel, firms like Asian Paints Ltd. would need to hike prices by a staggering 22 per cent just to protect their margins.

Alternative energy

Alternative energy plays — from wind and solar to lithium batteries and energy storage systems — are drawing renewed interest, as the deepening oil crisis fuels demand. Shares of wind-turbine maker Goldwind Science & Technology Co. have gained about 10 per cent this month and those of battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. have risen 16 per cent.

Homebuilders

US homebuilder stocks have come under pressure as expectations for rate cuts fade, which could push mortgage rates higher.

The key question is whether these impacts will be long term, according to Truist Securities analyst Keith Hughes. For example, a higher 10-year yield results in higher mortgage rates and “could negatively impact home buying and consumer confidence,” the analyst wrote in a note.

Rising interest rates could hurt construction-focused companies such as TopBuild Corp. and Builders FirstSource, Inc., while higher crude and natural gas prices may raise costs for firms like Mohawk Industries, Inc. and Amrize Ltd.

Sugar and Tires

Indian sugar firms including Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. and Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd. are potential beneficiaries on the expectation that surging oil prices will lift rates for ethanol supplied by mills for blending with state-run firms’ fuel.

Meanwhile, tire manufacturers use crude by-products for synthetic rubber and reinforcement fillers. And higher oil prices have seen stocks including Apollo Tyres Ltd. and MRF Ltd. come under pressure.

Metals

On top of the impact on energy supply, smelters in the Middle East see incoming raw materials and outbound sales of metals disrupted. The Persian Gulf is home to about 9 per cent of global aluminum output, with prices for the metal hitting a four-year high before paring gains.

European giant Norsk Hydro ASA finds itself at the center of this storm through its 50 per cent stake in the Qatalum joint venture. After a controlled shutdown was initiated on March 3 due to the regional natural gas shortage, the stock saw a volatile recovery following news that Qatar Aluminum Ltd. no longer plans a total closure.

The fallout from any closure will likely be felt even after the immediate risk of attacks fades because aluminum smelters take three to six months to fully ramp up again, Citigroup Inc. analyst Ephrem Ravi wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, US aluminum firms like Alcoa Corp. have seen stock price gains as its smelting operations see limited disruption and its earnings stand to benefit from elevated metal prices.

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Short Term Parking Avenue

by Hansraj Agrawal | Mar 14, 2026 | Share Market

Indian equity markets have been in a phase of indecision over the past 15–18 months. After the sharp correction that began in September 2024, broader market indices have largely oscillated within a range, offering little conviction to investors either way. In this backdrop, many investors prefer to temporarily step aside and wait for the market to give a green signal before deploying fresh money.

Investors wanting to deploy funds for about a year while earning better returns than a savings account, several categories of debt-oriented mutual funds and hybrid funds offer viable options. These funds prioritise liquidity, relatively low volatility and modest returns, making them suitable for parking money while waiting for opportunities in the equity market.

The most relevant categories include arbitrage funds, liquid and overnight funds, ultra-short duration funds, low-duration funds and money market funds.

These funds can also be useful for investors who plan to gradually shift into equity funds through systematic transfer plans (STPs). However, portfolio quality, expense ratio and exit load are key factors investors should examine before investing in these funds.

Arbitrage funds

Arbitrage funds exploit price differences between the cash market and the futures market. For instance, if a stock trades at ₹100 in the cash market and ₹101 in the futures market, the fund buys the stock in the cash segment and simultaneously sells the futures contract. When the contract expires, the price difference is locked in as profit. These funds also employ index futures and covered call strategies.

Because these trades are hedged, arbitrage funds carry very limited directional equity risk. Returns largely depend on the arbitrage spreads available in the market and short-term interest rates.

The key advantage is taxation. Since these funds maintain equity exposure above 65 per cent through hedged positions, they are taxed as equity funds. If held for more than one year, gains qualify for long-term capital gains taxation.

Performance, measured by one-year rolling returns calculated from the last five years of direct plans, shows that funds in this category delivered an average return of 5.9 per cent. Their one-year returns ranged between 2 per cent and 8.3 per cent during the period.

Investors should note that arbitrage spreads can compress when liquidity in the derivatives market tightens. Therefore, returns can vary depending on market conditions. Still, for investors looking to park money for about 12 months, arbitrage funds remain one of the most tax-efficient options.

Expense ratios for regular plans range from 0.6 to 1.6 per cent, while direct plans typically charge between 0.1 and 0.4 per cent. Exit loads range from nil to about 0.5 per cent for holding periods between seven days and one month.

Liquid and overnight funds

Liquid funds invest in money market instruments such as treasury bills, commercial papers and certificates of deposit with maturities of up to 91 days. These funds also offer an instant redemption facility that enables investors to withdraw a portion of their investment, usually up to ₹50,000 or 90 per cent of the folio value (whichever is lower), with funds credited to the bank account within minutes through IMPS.

The performance of liquid funds largely tracks short-term interest rates in the economy. Based on one-year rolling returns over the past five years for direct plans, the category delivered an average return of 5.6 per cent. Returns ranged between 2.9 per cent and 7.5 per cent during the period.

Expense ratios for regular plans range from 0.13 to 0.54 per cent, while direct plans typically charge between 0.06 and 0.23 per cent. Exit loads are usually minimal, up to about 0.007 per cent for holdings redeemed within seven days.

Overnight funds, similar to liquid funds, invest in securities that mature in one day. Because the maturity is extremely short, these funds carry virtually no interest-rate risk or credit risk. They are widely used by institutions and treasury managers for very short-term parking of funds. However, liquid funds typically offer slightly higher returns than overnight funds while still maintaining high liquidity and relatively low volatility.

Ultra-short duration funds

Ultra-short duration funds invest in instruments with a Macaulay duration of three to six months. Because they take slightly higher duration exposure than liquid funds, they may offer marginally better yields.

These funds typically invest in high-quality corporate bonds, commercial papers and money market instruments. The short maturity profile ensures that interest-rate changes do not significantly erode returns over short holding periods.

Performance measured by one-year rolling returns over the last five years for direct plans shows that the category delivered an average return of 6.6 per cent. Their one-year returns ranged between 3 per cent and 8.8 per cent during the period.

Expense ratios for regular plans range from 0.3 to 1.4 per cent, while direct plans typically charge between 0.13 and 0.5 per cent. Exit loads are generally nil across most funds in the category, according to ACEMF data.

However, investors should pay close attention to portfolio quality. Credit events in debt funds in the past have highlighted the importance of choosing funds that emphasise high-rated instruments and maintain a conservative portfolio construction.

Low-duration funds

Low-duration funds extend the maturity profile further, with Macaulay duration typically ranging between six and 12 months. These funds invest across corporate bonds, government securities and money market instruments.

Because of the slightly longer duration, they are somewhat more sensitive to interest-rate movements than ultra-short duration funds.

Performance measured by one-year rolling returns over the last five years for direct plans shows that the category delivered an average return of 6.8 per cent. Their one-year returns ranged between 2.5 per cent and 9.5 per cent during the period.

Expense ratios for regular plans range from 0.4 to 1.2 per cent, while direct plans typically charge between 0.17 and 0.46 per cent. Exit loads are generally nil across funds in this category, according to ACEMF data. As with other debt funds, investors should pay close attention to portfolio quality.

Money market funds

Money market funds focus on investing in high-quality money market instruments such as treasury bills, commercial papers and certificates of deposit with maturities of up to one year.

Compared with liquid funds, money market funds may generate slightly higher returns by taking exposure to instruments with somewhat longer maturities. However, they still maintain relatively low interest-rate sensitivity.

Performance measured by one-year rolling returns over the past five years for direct plans shows that the category delivered an average return of 6.6 per cent. Their one-year returns ranged between 3 per cent and 8.6 per cent during the period.

Expense ratios for regular plans range from 0.22 to 0.9 per cent, while direct plans typically charge between 0.08 and 0.25 per cent. Exit loads are generally nil across funds in the category, according to ACEMF data.

For debt funds, gains are added to the investor’s income and taxed at the applicable slab rate (for investments made after April 2023). The accompanying table lists the top-performing funds based on one-year rolling returns across the aforementioned categories.

Published on March 14, 2026

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Why Exiting This Large Cap Fund May Be Advisable

by Hansraj Agrawal | Mar 14, 2026 | Share Market

In the current market volatility following the war situation in West Asia, even large-cap indices have seen significant corrections.

Frontline indices across market caps have fallen 14-20 per cent from their recent highs.

Though many large-cap stocks, too, have declined in the last year or so, in general, these names are relied upon for portfolio stability and steady returns over the long term. More so in the case of large-cap mutual funds.

Though many active large-cap funds have struggled to beat the Nifty 100 TRI or the BSE 100 TRI, some schemes still managed steady outperformance over the long term.

Given that it is the key category that must figure in most investor portfolios, fund selection becomes important. Prolonged underperformers must be weeded out of the portfolio.

In this regard, Axis Large Cap (Axis Bluechip earlier) has been a lackadaisical performer in the segment over the medium and long terms.

Investors can consider moving out of the scheme and switching to better funds in the category.

Underwhelming performance

Axis Large Cap has been finding it challenging to beat standard large-cap benchmarks across timeframes over the past several years.

Over one, three, five and seven-year timeframes, the fund has underperformed the Nifty 100 TRI by 0.5-2.6 percentage points.

The fund’s five-year point-to-point returns are modest, at 8.6 per cent. In this timeframe, the Nifty 100 TRI gave 11.2 per cent and the BSE 100 TRI delivered 11.8 per cent. Even on a 10-year basis the fund lags behind these benchmarks.

When five-year rolling returns are considered from March 2016 to March 2026, the fund has outperformed the Nifty 100 TRI a mere 46.1 per cent of the times. The mean return for the fund in this rolling period is 15.3 per cent, while for the Nifty 100 TRI it is 15.5 per cent.

When returns on monthly SIPs (XIRR) over the past 10 years are considered, Axis Large Cap fund has given 11.8 per cent. A similar SIP in the Nifty 100 TRI would have delivered 12.5 per cent.

The risk ratios too point to a similar story of underperformance. The fund has an upside capture ratio of 92.6, indicating that its NAV rises less than the benchmark during market rallies. Axis Large Cap fund has a downside capture ratio of 103.8, indicating that the scheme’s NAV falls more than the benchmark during periods of corrections. A score of 100 indicates that a fund performs exactly in line with its benchmark.

This inference is based on data from March 2021-March 2026. All return figures and the ratios pertain to the direct plan of the fund.

Portfolio moves

Axis Large Cap invests in line with the mandate for the category. Most of the times, the large-cap portion in the portfolio is in excess of 90 per cent.

However, the fund does take significant cash and derivatives exposures, which though insulates the portfolio during falls, could result in lower returns during rallies.

Cash and cash equivalents and net current assets, derivatives (futures) and treasury bills have sometimes gone above 10 per cent of the portfolio.

In terms of sector preferences, financial services (including banking) have been the top holdings across timelines. However, higher weightage to the likes of underperforming stocks such as HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance etc. resulted in modest returns.

Though the fund pared exposure to the IT sector, it had heavy exposure in 2025 with Infosys and TCS being among key holdings. The general roiling of domestic software firms and the lower growth recorded by the majors, and AI-led business disruptions in the segment have resulted in their prices coming off sharply over the past 18 months.

In the past, exposure to retailing giant Avenue Supermarts and automobile major tata Motors have hurt returns, though here again exposures are pared.

In its recent portfolio, auto and auto components, healthcare and oil, gas & consumable fuels figure among the top holdings.

Axis Large Cap fund’s top 10 stocks account for more than 50 per cent of the portfolio and generally make for concentrated exposure. A list of underperformers in those top holdings with higher weightage have meant that the fund’s overall returns have tended to lag several peers in the category.

Investors can stop SIPs and exit the fund in light of its prolonged underperformance.

ICICI Prudential Large Cap and Nippon India Large Cap would be our top choices for switching or starting fresh SIPs. Both these funds have excellent long-term track records and have consistently beaten the large-cap benchmark indices convincingly.

These can be part of the core portfolio of investors looking to stay put for long-term goals that are 7-10 years away.

Published on March 14, 2026

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Sebi chief urges investors to stay patient amidst global market uncertainty

by Hansraj Agrawal | Mar 14, 2026 | Share Market

Sebi chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey on Saturday urged investors, especially retail ones, to remain patient, terming it the “best strategy” in uncertain times.

In remarks made amid the Middle East conflict-induced selling pressures in the markets, Pandey said past episodes of turbulence in markets like the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic or the Russia-Ukraine conflict have shown that things stabilise eventually.

The Sebi chief said global efforts are underway to restore stability, even as the ongoing tensions in parts of the world have created uncertainty in energy markets.

“For many investors — especially retail investors — the best strategy during such a period of uncertainty is to remain patient,” Pandey said, speaking at an event organised by Moneycontrol.

The chief of the Indian capital markets regulator acknowledged that “uncertainty” dominates the global economic landscape, and added that the same is triggered by technology changes with the adoption of artificial intelligence and geopolitical tensions.

Citing past experience, Pandey said, “Markets experienced turbulence … but they eventually stabilised.”

He went on to say that uncertainty is not an exception but a recurring feature in financial markets, and added that the real test of a system is to check if it continues to function smoothly, fairly and efficiently in the face of challenges.

“In uncertain times, the strength of a capital market does not lie in the absence of volatility. Volatility is a natural feature of markets. The real strength lies in the confidence that the system will function fairly, transparently and efficiently even during periods of stress,” he said.

India’s capital markets can navigate the uncertainty and also emerge stronger if we continue to strengthen our institutions, deepen participation and uphold governance, he said.

Efficient capital markets play a stabilising role in an uncertain world by sustaining investor confidence, enabling transparent price discovery and absorbing shocks, he said.

“Efficiency is the foundation of trust in the financial system. Without that trust, capital hesitates. Investment slows. And growth becomes more difficult to sustain,” he said.

The Indian capital markets have deepened and become more resilient over the last decade, Pandey said.

In an era when markets are reacting instantly to narratives, the key question policymakers and market participants are grappling with is how to ensure speed doesn’t compromise stability, Pandey said.

Underlining that regulations alone cannot deliver efficient markets, Pandey said it is a shared responsibility which requires the collective commitment of the entire ecosystem.

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Waaree Energies announces 10 GW integrated solar ingot and wafer factory at Nagpur

by Hansraj Agrawal | Mar 14, 2026 | Share Market

Last Updated : Mar 14 2026 | 7:04 PM IST

To invest approximately Rs 6,200 cr

Waaree Energies today marked a significant milestone in India’s journey toward energy security and manufacturing self-reliance with the groundbreaking ceremony for its upcoming integrated solar ingot and wafer manufacturing facility at Butibori, Nagpur.

The facility will house 10 GW capacity each for solar ingots and wafers, establishing it as India’s largest integrated ingot and wafer manufacturing complex. The project represents a major step toward strengthening India’s upstream solar manufacturing ecosystem and building a more resilient domestic supply chain for the country’s rapidly expanding solar sector.

Spread across 300 acres and being developed with an investment of approximately Rs 6,200 crore, the facility will focus on the production of high-purity solar ingots and wafers, which form the critical foundation of the solar photovoltaic value chain. By strengthening domestic capabilities in these upstream components, the project will significantly reduce India’s reliance on imported materials, enhance supply chain stability, and support the nation’s long-term goal of achieving energy security through self-reliant clean energy manufacturing.

Once operational, the facility is expected to generate over 8,000 direct and indirect employment opportunities, contributing to regional economic development, skill creation, and industrial growth in Maharashtra.

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First Published: Mar 14 2026 | 7:04 PM IST

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GE Power India CFO Aashish Ghai resigns

by Hansraj Agrawal | Mar 14, 2026 | Share Market

Last Updated : Mar 14 2026 | 5:16 PM IST

GE Power India announced the resignation of Aashish Ghai from the position of whole-time director & chief financial officer (CFO) of the company, effective 13 May 2026, to pursue opportunities outside the organization.

GE Power India is one of the leading players in the Indian power generation equipment market. Hydro and gas businesses are also housed in the company in addition to steam power. The company offers a comprehensive portfolio of power generation solutions with a focus on emissions control and a services portfolio providing sustainable, affordable, and reliable electricity.

The electric utility company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 72.32 crore in Q3 FY26 as against a net loss of Rs 18.58 crore in Q3 FY25. Total income rose by 16.5% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 401.25 crore in the third quarter of FY26.

Shares of GE Power India dropped 4.99% to close at Rs 442.70 on 13 March 2026.

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First Published: Mar 14 2026 | 5:16 PM IST

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