Escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are adding to global macro uncertainty, with renewed concerns that disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could support crude oil prices and increase market volatility, believes PL Capital. While higher oil prices can strengthen fiscal balances and liquidity for hydrocarbon-driven Gulf economies, prolonged instability could also weigh on project execution through higher freight and insurance costs, supply-chain bottlenecks, and potential deferral of private capital expenditure, noted analysts.
For Indian corporates, according to the report, the risks are most relevant for companies with meaningful exposure to the West Asia across engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC), oil & gas services, power transmission, defence exports and infrastructure, where near-term performance could swing based on project concentration by country, contract structures, receivable cycles, and on-ground execution constraints.
PL Capital reckons India’s West Asia-exposed companies may face near-term headwinds such as execution disruptions, logistics challenges, slower tender finalisations, deferment of new orders, and postponement of dispatches as customers reassess project timelines. The brokerage said the impact remains company-specific and will become clearer as management teams provide updates.
L&T:
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) stands out with a heavy international mix, with around 75 per cent of its overseas order book linked to West Asia, spanning hydrocarbons, oil & gas EPC, power transmission and distribution, and water projects across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Any further escalation could affect both incremental order inflows and execution schedules, analysts said.
KEC International:
KEC International has Middle East exposure of roughly 20 per cent (around ₹10,000 crore order book), according to estimates. Analysts noted that revenue from its UAE factory—around ₹60 crore per month—could be at risk, though operations in Saudi Arabia and other regions are continuing normally, limiting the near-term financial impact unless disruptions extend.
Kalpataru Projects:
Kalpataru Projects has exposure across oil & gas and power trasmission and distribution (T&D). The company had indicated it was qualified for five large West Asia projects (as per Q3 commentary), which could face delays in award timelines if uncertainty persists, analysts said.
Engineers India:
Engineers India (EIL) has consultancy assignments in Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Kuwait linked to overseas oil & gas projects. Analysts said regional tensions could lead to slower tender finalisation and delayed project awards, moderating consultancy inflows in the near term.
Apar Industries:
Apar Industries has about 5 per cent revenue exposure to West Asia and operates a manufacturing facility in the UAE with a subsidiary in Saudi Arabia. Analysts flagged risks from logistics disruptions, higher freight/insurance costs, and crude-linked raw material inflation, which could create near-term margin volatility.
Other names: Order timing and demand risks
Kirloskar Pneumatic has limited exposure (historically under 10 per cent) but is already seeing delays in oil & gas orders from West Asia, with the potential for further order and execution slippage if tensions intensify. Cummins India, which exports gensets and provides services in Middle East markets, could face short-term demand volatility as well as logistics and input cost pressures.
Further, PL Capital said it is monitoring company-specific exposures and awaiting further clarity from management commentary to assess the extent and duration of the impact if geopolitical stress remains elevated.
Disclaimer: Views and recommendations are those of the brokerage/analyst and are not endorsements. Readers should exercise discretion.
