US Fed rate cut unlikely to impact foreign inflows to India: DEA secretary

US Fed rate cut unlikely to impact foreign inflows to India: DEA secretary


Seth also said that we need to watch out how other economies and markets will respond to the decision. (Photo: Shutterstock)

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Thursday that the impact of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate is expected to be limited for India as the move was largely anticipated. Department of Economic Affairs Secretary (DEA) Ajay Seth echoed this, stating that the US Fed rates were unlikely to “significantly impact” foreign inflows into India.


Nageswaran highlighted that the Indian stock market has positioned itself as an attractive bid for the investors and added that overall, the rate cut is beneficial for emerging markets. 

“The impact on India will be little muted… much of it (rate cut) priced in,” Nageswaran said at Deloitte’s Government Summit 2024.

Seth said: “We have to see from (the point of) where the (US interest rates) levels are. We have to see how other economies, markets behave.”

 


Why did the US Fed make bumper rate cuts?


A day earlier, the US central bank announced a half-percentage-point rate cut, which turned out to be larger than what many analysts expected. Interest rate or lending rate, is defined as the rate of interest at which the central bank lends to commercial banks.


The US Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday reduced the lending rate to 4.75-5.00 per cent from 5.25-5.50 per cent. 


Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powel said that the economy is fine, adding that Fed is seen cutting interest rates by a further 50 bps in 2024. The Fed had maintained interest rates at a two-decade high for 14 months.


Lending rates are increased when the government tries to tame inflation by making borrowing expensive. Reducing the borrowing rate will allow more money to be circulated in the market, leading to higher economic activity. The US Fed’s decision was driven by the recent lower than estimated manufacturing and job market data, which signalled that the US economy was facing a slowdown.


(With inputs from Reuters, PTI)

First Published: Sep 19 2024 | 4:03 PM IST



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Vodafone Idea Ltd leads losers in 'A' group

Vodafone Idea Ltd leads losers in 'A' group


Indus Towers Ltd, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd, IIFL Finance Ltd and Nava Ltd are among the other losers in the BSE’s ‘A’ group today, 19 September 2024.

Indus Towers Ltd, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd, IIFL Finance Ltd and Nava Ltd are among the other losers in the BSE’s ‘A’ group today, 19 September 2024.

Vodafone Idea Ltd lost 19.05% to Rs 10.45 at 14:48 IST.The stock was the biggest loser in the BSE’s ‘A’ group.On the BSE, 1958.48 lakh shares were traded on the counter so far as against the average daily volumes of 370.62 lakh shares in the past one month.

 

Indus Towers Ltd crashed 11.24% to Rs 379.5. The stock was the second biggest loser in ‘A’ group.On the BSE, 12.85 lakh shares were traded on the counter so far as against the average daily volumes of 3.15 lakh shares in the past one month.

Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd tumbled 8.62% to Rs 475.85. The stock was the third biggest loser in ‘A’ group.On the BSE, 2.48 lakh shares were traded on the counter so far as against the average daily volumes of 1.32 lakh shares in the past one month.

IIFL Finance Ltd dropped 8.46% to Rs 484.05. The stock was the fourth biggest loser in ‘A’ group.On the BSE, 3.73 lakh shares were traded on the counter so far as against the average daily volumes of 1.19 lakh shares in the past one month.

Nava Ltd fell 7.96% to Rs 1212.35. The stock was the fifth biggest loser in ‘A’ group.On the BSE, 1.01 lakh shares were traded on the counter so far as against the average daily volumes of 29177 shares in the past one month.

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First Published: Sep 19 2024 | 3:00 PM IST



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NTPC Green Energy IPO SWOT analysis: Key strengths, weaknesses from DRHP

NTPC Green Energy IPO SWOT analysis: Key strengths, weaknesses from DRHP



NTPC Green Energy IPO: NTPC Green Energy, the renewable energy subsidiary of National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC), a ‘Maharatna’ central public sector enterprise, has submitted its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), marking the commencement of its initial public offering (IPO) process.


As one of India’s top 10 renewable energy companies by operational capacity (as of June 2024), NTPC Green Energy IPO is poised to be the largest PSU share sale since Life Insurance Corporation’s IPO in May 2022. This move is expected to boost investor sentiment, capitalising on India’s thriving primary markets, which have seen 61 companies go public this year.

 


As investors await further details, here is a comprehensive  analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the NTPC Green Energy, as described in the DRHP papers.


Key strengths outlined in the DRHP


Legacy of NTPC Group


NTPC Green Energy is promoted by its parent company, NTPC, one of the largest power companies in India. The company benefits from the support, vision, resources, and experience of the NTPC Group, which is looking to expand its non-fossil-based capacity to 45-50 per cent of its portfolio, including 60 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2032.  


Moreover, NTPC Limited has the highest credit rating from leading Indian rating agencies, with ratings equivalent to India’s sovereign ratings from foreign rating agencies. NTPC’s Green arm, NGEL, and its subsidiary, NREL, also enjoy the highest credit rating from leading Indian rating agencies.


Strong Fundamental Factors


The company stated in the DRHP that it is one of the frontrunners in the development of Round-the-Clock (RTC) renewable energy projects in India. It is developing 2.7 GW of RTC RE capacities, including one of the world’s largest RTC RE projects of 1.3 GW. The company’s revenues are primarily driven by energy sales, which account for 99 per cent of its total operating revenues.  


“Among its peers, the company has earned higher EBITDA margins and PAT margins in the last two fiscal years. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.97 for Fiscal 2024, which indicates moderate leverage. Further, it is lower than its peers, indicating higher funding through equity,” NTPC Green Energy said in the DRHP.


Key risks, threats as per the DRHP


Reliance on Offtakers


NTPC Green Energy stated that many new projects are under construction, and the company expects to remain reliant on its top 9 offtakers for a significant portion of its revenue through Fiscal 2025. “If any of these offtakers become unable or unwilling to fulfill their contractual obligations under the relevant PPAs, or terminate the agreements, our assets, liabilities, business, and financial condition could be materially affected,” NTPC Green Energy mentioned in the DRHP.


Dependency on third-party for materials and equipment supply


The company said its business and profitability are heavily dependent on the availability and cost of solar modules, wind turbines, and other components, for which it relies on third-party suppliers. “Any disruption in supply, or volatility in prices, may adversely impact our business, results of operations, and financial condition,” said NTPC Green Energy in the DRHP.


Concentration of renewable energy projects in Rajasthan


NTPC Green Energy’s operating renewable energy projects are concentrated in Rajasthan. The company stated that any significant social, political, economic, or seasonal disruption in Rajasthan could adversely affect its business, financial condition, and results of operations.  

 


Additionally, the company faces competition from both traditional and renewable energy companies, and failure to respond to market changes could impact its financial performance.


Opportunity

 


India’s energy demand has grown to 880 Mtoe (IEA, 2021) from 441 Mtoe in 2000. The Government of India has made remarkable progress in providing access to electricity and clean cooking, while integrating a high share of renewable energy sources into the grid. According to the World Energy Outlook 2021 by the IEA, India’s share in global primary energy consumption was 6.1 per cent in 2020, likely to increase to 9.8 per cent by 2050. NTPC Green Energy, being a leading market player, is expected to benefit from this.


Other Key details of the proposed NTPC Green Energy IPO


NTPC Green Energy aims to raise Rs 10,000 crore through its initial public offering (IPO), comprising a fresh issue of equity shares, as outlined in its DRHP. The company will determine the floor price, price band, and issue price in consultation with the Book Running Lead Managers based on market demand.  


KFin Technologies is the registrar for the public issue of NTPC Green Energy IPO, while IDBI Capital Markets & Securities, HDFC Bank, IIFL Securities, and Nuvama Wealth Management are the book-running lead managers.


The equity shares of NTPC Green Energy, with a face value of Rs 10 each, are proposed to be listed on BSE and NSE.


NTPC Green Energy financials


NTPC Green Energy’s revenue from operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2024, stood at Rs 578.44 crore. The company’s revenue surged to Rs 1,962.60 crore in FY24, compared to Rs 169.69 crore in FY23, as per the DRHP.  


The company’s total expenses for Q1FY25 were reported at Rs 423.97 crore. In FY24, total expenses were Rs 1,549.45 crore, up from Rs 118.08 crore in FY23.  Net profit attributable to the parent company owners stood at Rs 138.61 crore in Q1FY25, compared to Rs 344.71 crore in FY24 and Rs 171.21 crore in FY23.


NTPC Green Energy IPO objective


NTPC Green Energy plans to utilise Rs 7,500 crore from the net proceeds to fund investments in its subsidiary, NTPC Renewable Energy (NREL), for repayment/prepayment of certain borrowings. The remaining proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes.


About NTPC Green Energy


NTPC Green Energy is a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC. According to CRISIL’s September 2024 report, the company is the largest renewable energy public sector enterprise (excluding hydro) in terms of operating capacity as of June 30, 2024. The company’s portfolio, comprising both solar and wind power assets, spans multiple locations in six states, reducing location-specific generation risks. As of June 30, 2024, NTPC Green Energy’s portfolio consisted of 14,696 MW, including 2,925 MW of operating projects and 11,771 MW of contracted and awarded projects.



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Vodafone Idea Ltd leads losers in 'A' group

CESC's subsidiary inks pact to set up wind power project of 0.69 GW


CESC said that its subsidiary Purvah Green Power has entered into a binding term sheet with Ecoren Energy India for setting up wind power project of up to 686.85 MW.

The project is likely to be commissioned within three years, subject to the receipt of the relevant licenses/ permits/ approvals from various authorities and carrying out various civil/electrical and other related works.

CESC is a fully-integrated electrical utility company. The company’s other business segments include power, organized retailing, property development and business process outsourcing.

The companys consolidated net profit increased 5.4% to Rs 388 crore in Q1 FY25 as compared with Rs 368 crore in Q1 FY24. Net sales jumped 12.8% YoY to Rs 4,863 crore in Q1 FY25.

 

The scrip fell 3.56% to currently trade at Rs 185.45 on the BSE.

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First Published: Sep 19 2024 | 12:35 PM IST



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India overtaking China in MSCI global stock gauges to drive flows

India overtaking China in MSCI global stock gauges to drive flows


India’s overtaking of China in key global gauges will likely usher in a bigger influx of foreign flows. Image: Bloomberg

By John Cheng and Abhishek Vishnoi

India’s overtaking of China in key global gauges will likely usher in a bigger influx of foreign flows, giving equities in the South Asian country another boost.


India has overtaken China in the MSCI AC World IMI Index with a 2.35 per cent weighting compared to a 2.24 per cent for the latter, according to a Morgan Stanley report dated Sept. 17. That makes the South Asian market the sixth largest globally, narrowly behind France.


Earlier this month, India surpassed China to become the biggest market in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index, according to Morgan Stanley’s analysis.

 

The milestone underscores investors’ rising faith that India may be the new engine of global economic growth as China falters amid a lack of strong stimulus and persistent deflationary pressures. Foreigners, whose holdings in Indian stocks periodically fell this year, are set for their biggest quarterly purchases since June 2023.


MSCI AC World IMI Index

Market Weight %

  US

    63.23

  Japan

     5.73

  UK

     3.51

  Canada

     2.83

  France

     2.38

  India

     2.35

  China

     2.24


“India’s overtaking of China in some of MSCI indices represents an ongoing rotation as investors shift to new EM growth engines,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Foreign inflows to India have been strong over the past year, and the weighting change is a reflection of that.”


India’s $5 trillion stock market has been hitting multiple fresh highs this year as global investors returned after political headwinds from the elections dissipated. 


By comparison, China’s weighting in global benchmarks has shrunk over the past few years. The CSI 300 Index is hovering near a five-year low.


To be sure, India has yet to displace China in the more widely-tracked MSCI World Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. While IMI gauges include a wider range of companies including smaller firms, they are not the most widely used by global investors, who still prefer measures carrying only large and midcap stocks.


“We think India will continue to gain share due to market outperformance, new issuance and liquidity improvements,” Morgan Stanley strategists including Jonathan Garner wrote in the note on Tuesday. “We remain overweight India and underweight China in our pan-Asia EM asset allocation.”  

First Published: Sep 19 2024 | 11:46 AM IST



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Gold, Equities, Oil, Bonds: What next for these assets after Fed rate cut?

Gold, Equities, Oil, Bonds: What next for these assets after Fed rate cut?



Investment strategy after US Fed’s rate cut: The US Federal Reserve’s jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points — a first since early 2020 — triggered volatility across various asset classes. The US equities, for instance, ended lower on Wednesday, as did the Spot Gold in the international market.

 

Asian equities, however, saw meaningful gains Thursday morning where Indian equities hit fresh record highs.


The diverse trend, analysts said, was on account of the contradiction by Fed Chair Jerome Powell where he began the easing cycle with an outsized cut but maintained that the US economy is in good shape. This, they said, may keep investors cautious in the near-term.

 

 


While the US is nowhere near recession, there are signs of a significant slowdown. The pace of this slowdown, they added, will dictate the pace of rate cuts going ahead. 

 

“Markets are pricing in around 60bps of easing for 2024 and 150bps for 2025 – significantly more than the Fed’s projections. Most asset classes gave up their gains overnight, as Powell cautioned against expecting larger cuts going ahead,” noted Emkay Global Financial Services.


So, how will the US Fed’s outsized rate cut of half a percentage point affect each asset class ahead? And how should investors tweak their portfolios?

 


US Fed’s rate cut impact on equities

 


According to Unmesh Kulkarni, managing director and senior advisor, Julius Baer India, US equity markets have, historically, performed well if the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle is accompanied by a strong economy.  

 


“The global macroeconomic environment is currently favourable for equities. However, volatility in equity markets is likely to stay elevated, given the uncertainty around the upcoming US elections, ongoing concerns of an economic slowdown / recession in the US, as well as other geopolitical factors,” he added.

 


Gains in emerging market equities, too, will depend on whether the US economy is heading for a soft landing or into a hard landing (recession).

 

“While the Indian economy in, itself, is on a solid footing, valuations are rich and may limit the near-term upside. Indian equities could witness higher volatility if the probability of a global hard landing rises,” Kulkarni cautioned.


US Fed rate cut impact on bond market

 


According to analysts, the US Fed’s 50 bps rate cut may lead to a global rally in debt markets, improving liquidity and making it cheaper for businesses and consumers to borrow.  

 


The rate cut may also weaken the US dollar, and increase foreign demand for US bonds.

 


Back home, however, bond market trackers don’t expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to immediately follow suit. Having said that, an immediate shift in stance cannot be completely ruled out, they added.

 


As a strategy, analysts at Fisdom recommend investors to increase their exposure to long-duration bonds to take advantage of the potential capital appreciation as bond prices rise with falling yields.  

 


 “It is also wise to maintain some allocation to shorter-duration bonds or high-quality corporate bonds for stability, helping to offset any risk related to the future interest rate changes or shift in economic conditions,” they added in their note.  

 


Impact on Gold

 


Contrary to expectations, Gold came under slight pressure after the US Fed’s rate cut decision. After hitting an all-time high of $2,618 per ounce on Wednesday, the yellow metal was quoting at $2,587/oz on Thursday.  

 


Typically, Gold glitters when rate cut cycles are accompanied with a recessionary environment.

 


“A 50 bps cut could weaken the US dollar, negatively impacting the IT sector and benefiting gold. Post the decision, a pair trade strategy involving ‘long on gold and short on IT’ could be considered,” said Vikram Kasat, Head – Advisory, PL Capital – Prabhudas Lilladher.

 


Impact on Oil prices

 


Even as the US Fed has assured investors of a strong economy, analysts see the 50-bps rate cut as the first step by the US central bank to fight recession. Oil demand, thus, is expected to stagnate in the Western world, they said.

 


“Amid China’s increased oil production, the petro-nations will likely phase out their curtailments as competitionfor market share heats up. Geopolitics-driven price spikes are usually short-lived, and in absence of an extreme flare-up in geopolitical conditions, the current downtrend in oil prices might just extend a bit more,” said Unmesh Kulkarni of Julius Baer India.

First Published: Sep 19 2024 | 10:54 AM IST



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