RCF board OKs raising upto Rs 1,400 cr via NCDs

RCF board OKs raising upto Rs 1,400 cr via NCDs


Rashtriya Chemical & Fertilizers (RCF) on Thursday announced that the board has approved raising upto Rs 1,400 crore in one or more tranches by issuing non-convertible debentures (NCDs) through private placement basis.

In an exchange filing, RCF said, The board has considered and approved the issue of secured/unsecured, non-convertible debentures in one or more series/tranches, aggregating upto to Rs1,400 crore in the period of next twelve months through private placement basis subject to the approval of the shareholders at the ensuing annual general meeting.

Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers (RCF) is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of fertilizers and industrial chemicals. As on 30 June 2024, the Government of India held 75% stake in the company.

 

The companys consolidated net profit slipped 84.04% to Rs 10.80 crore in Q1 FY25 as compared with Rs 67.69 crore posted in same period last year. Revenue from operations grew by 8.73% year on year (YoY) to Rs 4,396.06 crore during the quarter ended June 2024.

Shares of Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers slipped 1.83% to Rs 195.45 on the BSE.

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First Published: Sep 06 2024 | 10:58 AM IST



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Goldman Sachs downgrades SBI to 'Sell', slashes target price; share slips

Goldman Sachs downgrades SBI to 'Sell', slashes target price; share slips


Goldman Sachs on SBI: Public sector lender State Bank of India (SBI) shares slipped in trade on Friday, September 6, 2024. The SBI scrip dropped as much as 2.81 per cent to an intraday low of Rs 795.60 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
The SBI stock was also the top loser on 30-share Sensex.

The fall in SBI share price came after media reports said that the New York-based brokerage Goldman Sachs has downgraded SBI to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’. 


Goldman Sachs also reduced its target price for SBI to Rs 742, down from Rs 841. This new target suggests a potential downside of 9.35 per cent from Thursday’s closing price of Rs 818.60.

 

Triggers behind the downgrade


Goldman Sachs has identified several challenges contributing to a downgrade of SBI’s outlook, highlighting a peak in return on assets (RoA) as a critical factor, according to reports. The analysts also foresee a likely de-rating in valuation for the bank.


According to Goldman Sachs, SBI’s risk-reward profile is becoming increasingly unfavourable due to growing obstacles impacting the sustainability of its RoA. 


They project that the RoA, which is expected to exceed 1 per cent in fiscal year 2024, will decline to below 1 per cent by fiscal year 2026.


Additionally, analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipate a slowdown in loan growth due to a widening gap between deposit and loan growth. They also highlighted that the bank has been losing market share in deposits over the past four quarters, which is expected to continue. 


As a result, the analysts have revised their growth projections downward by 100-400 basis points for FY25E-FY27E.


The analysts also predict rising credit costs due to increased slippages in Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSME), agriculture, and unsecured loan portfolios. Consequently, analysts have reduced their earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY25-27 by 3 per cent-9 per cent and have lowered the target multiple from 1.2x to 1x.


Q1FY25 performance


State Bank of India (SBI)  announced its June quarter of financial year 2025 (Q1FY25) results on August 3, 2024. The lender reported nearly flat standalone net profit for Q1FY25, totaling Rs 17,035 crore, compared to Rs 16,884 crore in the same quarter of the previous financial year (Q1FY24). 


The bank’s total income rose to Rs 1,22,688 crore for the first quarter, up from Rs 1,08,039 crore a year earlier. Interest income also increased to Rs 1,11,526 crore, compared to Rs 95,975 crore in the previous year.


SBI’s gross non-performing assets (NPAs) improved, decreasing to 2.21 per cent of total advances from 2.76 per cent at the end of June last year. Net NPAs also saw a reduction, falling to 0.57 per cent in June 2024 from 0.71 per cent a year ago.


At 9:53 AM, shares of SBI were trading 1.54 per cent lower at Rs 806 per share. In comparison, BSE Sensex was trading 0.42 per cent lower at 81,859.77 levels.

First Published: Sep 06 2024 | 10:03 AM IST



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Nuvama says 'Buy' Polycab India for 25% upside, raises target; Here's why

Nuvama says 'Buy' Polycab India for 25% upside, raises target; Here's why


Polycab India new target price: Mumbai-based domestic brokerage Nuvama has increased wires and cables manufacturer Polycab India’s target price to Rs 8,340 from Rs 7,700, implying an upside of over 25 per cent. The brokerage, however, has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the scrip.


“We believe the raw material (RM) price volatility may have a momentary impact while the medium-to-long term story stays intact. We are baking in revenue/Ebitda/PAT compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17 per cent/19 per cent/17 per cent over FY24–27E, lifting target price to Rs 8,340 (from Rs 7,700), valuing the stock at 48x (unchanged) and rolling forward to Q2FY27E earnings per share (EPS),” Achal Lohade, Harshit Sarawagi and Sayam Vanigota of Nuvama said in a note.

 


On the bourses, Polycab India scrip has risen 4 per cent in the past month while it has gained 37 per cent in the last six months. On Thursday, September 5, the Polycab India stock settled a little over 1 per cent lower at Rs 6,645.35. In comparison, BSE Sensex settled 0.18 per cent lower at 82,201.16 levels.


Meanwhile, here are the key factors behind the increased target price:


Strong demand 


Polycab has shown impressive growth in recent quarters, with revenue, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda), and profit after tax (PAT) showing CAGRs of 18 per cent, 21 per cent, and 29 per cent respectively from FY19 to FY24, analyst at Nuvama noted.


The company’s cables and wires (C&W) segment has led the industry with an 18 per cent CAGR over the same period, and this growth, analysts believe, is expected to continue due to strong demand and upcoming capital expenditures. 


While the FMEG segment, which includes switches, lighting and fan, has faced challenges and incurred losses, analysts believe a turnaround is expected by FY26 due to product realignment, new product development, and selective price increases. Notably, the FMEG segment revenue grew at 15 per cent CAGR over FY19–24 despite unfavourable conditions. 


Although exports, which account for 38 per cent of FY24 revenue, have been weak due to market transitions, they are expected to recover considerably by FY26. 


“Raw material volatility is not a major threat to profitability in exports due to the pass-through mechanism. Polycab continues to enjoy a price premium of 200- 500bp (depending on categories) over peers in the domestic segment,” Nuvama added.


Expanding market share 

Analysts pointed out that Polycab has consistently increased its market share, currently holding around 25-26 per cent of the organised market. The company’s focus on power cables (LT/HT) and control cables, which have strong demand, positions it well for future growth. 


Additionally, Polycab is set to achieve the Project LEAP goals ahead of the FY26 timeline. The management is now planning its next five-year strategy, considering the robust growth in the cable industry and expected FMEG turnaround. 


The company further plans to invest Rs 1,000-1,100 crore annually in capex over the next few years, up from Rs 860 crore in FY24, to meet demand and further expand its market share.


Sustained dominance and growth

Polycab India, analysts believe, will continue to gain market share on the back of product portfolio expansion (e.g. EHV) coupled with industry consolidation (as smaller/regional players struggle to add significant capacity on capex/working capital challenges). 


“Polycab tends to focus on the medium-to-long term horizon to achieve business growth, making it a long-term sustainable player in the segment,” analysts said.


On the downside, potential risks for Polycab include a slowdown in government and private capital expenditure, which could impact the company’s growth. Additionally, ongoing weakness in consumer markets could further strain the FMEG segment. Another concern is the major drop in copper prices, which may lead to reduced revenue growth.

First Published: Sep 06 2024 | 8:59 AM IST



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Why this focused fund can be a worthy investment in heated markets

Why this focused fund can be a worthy investment in heated markets


Focused funds have performed reasonably well in the market rally post the COVID-19 pandemic. Many funds in the category are large-cap oriented but have still delivered  better than broad-based benchmarks.

Large-cap orientation enables funds to stay relatively moderate on the risk front, given the massive rally in mid and small caps, with valuations shooting up way beyond the comfort zone.

Therefore, in the present market condition, a large-cap tilt may suit investors with an average risk appetite who are looking to save for the long term, but want a sprinkling of lower-market-cap stocks to lighten  up returns.

Market regulator SEBI mandates that focused funds to maintain a portfolio of not more than 30 stocks. While this number isn’t large enough, it is still possible to build a crisp portfolio without being too concentrated and risky if stock selection is sound.

The Mahindra Manulife Focused fund, which was rolled out in November 2020, has been among the best performers in its category and has consistently delivered outperformance over the benchmark. Investors can consider taking exposure to the fund for seven-plus years via the SIP route.

Consistent outperformance

When we take the point-to-point returns basis over the past one, two and three-year periods, the fund has outperformed its benchmark, Nifty 500 TRI, by 7-13 percentage points. Mahindra Manulife Focused fund has delivered 33.5 per cent returns annually since its inception, placing it favourably among the best in the broader diversified equity fund categories.

When one-year rolling returns over the period November 2020-September 2024 are taken, the fund has outperformed its benchmark over 100 per cent of the time.

The mean one-year rolling returns over the above-mentioned timeframe is 26 per cent for the fund, while the figure is 18.5 per cent for the Nifty 500 TRI.

When SIP returns over the past 45 months are taken, the fund has managed an XIRR of 33.2 per cent, which compares favourably with the top performers in the category. An SIP in the Nifty 500 TRI would have given an XIRR of 25.1 per cent over the same period.

Data from September 2021 to September 2024 indicates that the fund has an upside capture ratio of 109.2, indicating that it rises much more than the benchmark Nifty 500 TRI during rallies. Its downside capture ratio is 76.5, suggesting that the fund’s NAV falls a lot less than the benchmark during corrections. A score of 100 indicates that a fund performs in line with its benchmark.

Deft portfolio moves

The Mahindra Manulife Focused fund invests  in a crisp portfolio of around 30 stocks, in keeping with the mandate for the category.

The fund has always had financial services as the top sector in its holdings across timeframes. But, subsequent holdings are churned mildly. Earlier software companies (IT) were favoured more as the segment had corrected and valuations were reasonable. However, the fund has recently upped stakes in FMCG companies and oil, gas & consumable fuel segments. It has pared exposure to automobiles and auto components as well as healthcare sectors.

On the whole, Mahindra Manulife Focused fund largely follows a mix of value and growth styles of investing.

The fund generally holds over 80 per cent of its portfolio in large-cap stocks across market conditions. But it did make an exception in 2023 (exposure to large caps was only a little over 70 per cent), when it increased stakes in midcaps with a bit of small caps thrown in as well. This exposure helped the fund outperform  strongly over the past year, given the broader market rally. It has since restored the large-cap heavy structure in recent months.

Mahindra Manulife Focused fund usually picks the top 2-3 stocks in each sector unless midcaps dominate the segment.

Despite being a focused fund, the portfolio has limited exposure to individual stocks. Barring the top 2-3 picks, most account for less than 5 per cent of the overall holdings, thus avoiding major concentration risks.

Overall, the fund is suitable for those with a moderate to high-risk appetite and with a time horizon of 7-10 years. Exposure via the SIP route is ideal for investors.





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Nandish Shah of HDFC Sec recommends 'Bull Spread' strategy on M&M Finance

Nandish Shah of HDFC Sec recommends 'Bull Spread' strategy on M&M Finance



Buy M&M FINANCE (26-Sept Expiry) Rs 330 CALL at Rs 8.7 and simultaneously sell Rs 340 CALL at Rs 5.20


Lot Size: 2000


Cost of the strategy: Rs 3.5 (Rs 7000 per strategy)


Maximum profit: Rs 13,000 If M&M Finance closes at or above Rs 340 on 26 Sept expiry.


Breakeven Point: Rs 333.5


Risk Reward Ratio: 1:1.86


Approx margin required: Rs 23000


Rationale:


Long build up is seen in the M&M Finance Futures during the September series till now where we have seen 7 per cent rise in Open interest with price rising by 5 per cent.

 


Stock price has broken out on the weekly chart from the downward sloping trendline with rise in volumes.


Stock price has been forming bullish higher top higher bottom formation on the monthly chart.


Momentum Indicators and Oscillators are showing strength in the current uptrend of the stock.


(Nandish Shah is a technical research analyst at HDFC Securities. Views expressed are his own.)

First Published: Sep 06 2024 | 6:37 AM IST



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India overtakes China as top weight in MSCI Emerging Market Index

India overtakes China as top weight in MSCI Emerging Market Index



India has pipped China to become the top weight in the MSCI Emerging Market (EM) Investable Market Index (IMI) for the first time. The combined weightage of domestic stocks that are part of the MSCI EM IMI index is 22.27 per cent, while that of India’s larger neighbour is almost 70 basis points lower at 21.58 per cent.


This is despite China’s total market capitalisation at $8.14 trillion being over 60 per cent greater than India’s $5.03 trillion, according to Bloomberg data.


The exact assets tracking the MSCI EM IMI index—an offshoot of the main MSCI EM index tracked by funds with assets of $500 billion—are not known. However, US-based brokerage Morgan Stanley, in a note, said being a top weight will help open the doors for more foreign inflows into Indian companies.

 


The mainstay MSCI EM index—also referred to as the standard index—encompasses stocks in the large- and mid-cap space. The IMI, on the other hand, is more broad-based, with stocks from large-, mid- and small-cap universes.


The higher weight for India vis-à-vis China is by virtue of having a higher share of small-cap weightage in the EM basket, said Sriram Velayudhan, Senior Vice President, IIFL Securities.


Over the past two years, MSCI, a global index provider, has been trimming Chinese stocks from its indices following an extended period of underperformance. On the contrary, Indian companies forming part of its indices have been on the rise.


Last week, MSCI added seven more domestic stocks to its standard index, while trimming 60 from China. Following this, China’s weightage in the index slipped below 24 per cent, while India’s went past 20 per cent for the first time. China—the world’s largest market and economy—has a 320 bps higher weight than India in the MSCI EM index. This gap has narrowed substantially, as at the start of 2021, India’s weight at 9.2 per cent was less than a fourth of China’s 38.7 per cent in the index.


While including stocks and assigning weights, MSCI considers the available legroom for overseas funds as its indices are tracked mainly by global funds seeking exposure to EM or Asian markets. Liberalisation of investment rules by the government has helped improve the investment legroom for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).


While India’s weightage in most MSCI indices has risen, currently most EM funds have an underweight on the domestic markets given their expensive relative valuations.


Reliance Industries (weight of 1.22 per cent in the index), Infosys (0.86 per cent) and ICICI Bank (0.85 per cent) are top Indian companies in the MSCI EM IMI index. Meanwhile, Taiwanese semiconductor giant TSMC (8.09 per cent), Chinese technology conglomerate Tencent (3.6 per cent), and South Korean electronics major Samsung (2.96 per cent) are the top three components of the index.

First Published: Sep 05 2024 | 8:34 PM IST



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