Benchmark stocks to rise modestly by year-end, correction unlikely: Poll
The Sensex was forecast to gain over 3 per cent from Monday’s close to a lifetime high of 83,000 by end-2024.
India’s benchmark indices will rise modestly by the end of 2024, according to a Reuters poll of equity strategists who said a correction from already elevated levels in the coming month was unlikely.
Triggered by recent turbulence in global financial markets due to the unwinding of leveraged trades funded in Japanese yen, the BSE Sensex index dropped more than 4.7 per cent earlier this month but has since regained 3 per cent on expectations most major central banks will cut interest rates this year.
Breaching the 81,000 mark for the first time in July, the benchmark index of the world’s fastest growing major economy is up over 11 per cent this year, ahead of its peers. However, Indian equities, which trade at about 24 times earnings, above their 25-year average of 20, were not expected to gain much for the remainder of the year.
The Sensex was forecast to gain over 3 per cent from Monday’s close to a lifetime high of 83,000 by end-2024.
It was then expected to trade at 83,500 in mid-2025, according to the median forecast in the Aug. 9-20 Reuters poll of 25 equity analysts.
“India is becoming more of a story of resilience than outperformance. Because of valuations and somewhat moderating growth, the upside is becoming more limited,” said Rajat Agarwal, Asia equity strategist at Societe Generale.
“We see lower earnings growth prospects this year compared to last year,” Agarwal said. “Having said that, India remains a relatively less volatile emerging market in the context of global volatility.”
When asked about expectations for corporate earnings for the rest of this year, 22 respondents were equally split over whether they would outperform or underperform expectations.
Indian companies have so far reported broadly muted earnings growth for the April-June quarter.
“With the earnings season concluded, global factors are now largely influencing market trends, with attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy stance and the anticipated first rate cut in September,” said Ajit Mishra at stockbroker Religare.
“Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical situation is contributing to intermittent corrections. Despite these factors, we believe that positive domestic signals, coupled with liquidity support from local investors, will likely limit the downside in the coming month.”
A majority of analysts who answered an additional question, 17 of 23, said a correction – a decline of 10 per cent or more – in the Indian equity market was unlikely by end-September, including four who said it was highly unlikely.
Of the remaining six, five said a correction was likely and one said highly likely.
The blue-chip Nifty 50 index was forecast to gain 3.8 per cent from Monday’s close of 24,572.65 to 25,500 by end-year and reach 26,000 by mid-2025.
(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
First Published: Aug 20 2024 | 10:36 PM IST
