Gold, silver may be range bound as war, macro data set tone: Analysts

Gold, silver may be range bound as war, macro data set tone: Analysts



Precious metal prices are expected to witness mixed movement next week as investors track developments in the US-Iran conflict, string of global economic data releases, and domestic political cues, analysts said.


Traders will closely monitor PMI readings from major economies early in the week, followed by US labour market indicators and non-farm payroll data later in the week for fresh cues on monetary policy and bullion demand, they added.


“In the week ahead, precious metal prices momentum is expected to remain mixed with focus on developments on the US-Iran tussle and follow-up on peace talks,” Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.

 


On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures declined ₹1,347, or nearly 1 per cent, to close at ₹1.51 lakh per 10 grams. Silver, however, outperformed and gained ₹879 to settle at ₹2.50 lakh per kilogram during the past week.


“Gold traded largely range-bound last week, ending with a negative bias of closing at ₹1.51 lakh per 10 grams on the MCX,” Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said.


Despite the weak close, the metal showed resilience with a recovery from lower levels, primarily supported by profit booking in crude oil during the latter half of the week, which eased inflationary concerns and lent support to bullion, he added.


In the international markets, Comex gold futures declined $96.4, or 2.03 per cent to end at $4,644.5 per ounce over the past week, while silver fell nearly 1 per cent to close at $75.84 per ounce in New York.


Mer said bullion prices weighed by a shift in investor preference towards risk assets such as equities and caution from key central bank’s over inflationary pressures linked to elevated crude oil prices. Exchange Traded Fund investors remained net sellers in the previous week, while the latest weekly holdings data is scheduled for release on Monday.


On the demand front, gold demand remained mixed last week amid volatile global prices and a weaker rupee kept buyers away, and same was case across other centres, he added.


Jateen Trivedi said that rupee movement will remain a key driver, and any appreciation in the Indian currency could exert downward pressure on domestic gold prices even if the yellow metal holds firm globally.


Additionally, upcoming state election outcomes may also introduce short-term volatility in the rupee and overall market sentiment, he added.



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Mcap of 4 most valued firms surges by ₹2.20 trn, Reliance biggest winner

Mcap of 4 most valued firms surges by ₹2.20 trn, Reliance biggest winner



The combined market valuation of four of the top-10 most valued firms surged by Rs 2.20 lakh crore in a holiday-shortened last week, with Reliance Industries emerging as the biggest gainer.


Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 249.29 points or 0.32 per cent.


“Markets ended the week with marginal gains, reflecting a volatile and range-bound trading environment amid mixed global and domestic cues,” Ajit Mishra SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.


The week began on a positive note, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and steady progress in Q4 earnings, which lifted initial sentiment, he said.


However, gains were gradually capped by rising crude oil prices, weak cues from Asian markets, and persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, Mishra added.

 


While Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Bajaj Finance were the gainers from the pack, HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) faced a combined erosion of Rs 1.24 lakh crore from their valuation.


Reliance Industries added Rs 1,39,655.8 crore taking its market valuation to Rs 19,36,303.30 crore.


Bharti Airtel’s valuation surged Rs 43,503.51 crore to Rs 11,49,222.13 crore.


The market valuation of TCS jumped Rs 27,569.83 crore to Rs 8,94,933.95 crore and that of Bajaj Finance climbed Rs 9,432.32 crore to Rs 5,83,123.13 crore.


However, the market capitalisation (mcap) of ICICI Bank eroded by Rs 45,364.62 crore to Rs 9,04,980.78 crore.


The valuation of State Bank of India dropped Rs 30,922.57 crore to Rs 9,85,829.96 crore.


The mcap of HDFC Bank diminished by Rs 20,951.31 crore to Rs 11,87,274.17 crore and that of Hindustan Unilever edged lower by Rs 18,420.79 crore to Rs 5,28,799.01 crore.


The valuation of LIC declined by Rs 8,222.49 crore to Rs 5,04,798.07 crore and that of Larsen & Toubro dipped by Rs 178.83 crore to Rs 5,51,993.05 crore.


Reliance Industries remained the most valued domestic firm followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, TCS, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and LIC.



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State elections result, oil prices likely to steer markets this week

State elections result, oil prices likely to steer markets this week



Stock markets are likely to be guided this week by the outcome of state elections and high crude oil prices amid the West Asia conflict, say analysts.


The developments related to the West Asia conflict and the Strait of Hormuz will also be tracked by investors, they said.


Counting of votes for the five assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry will begin on Monday, May 4.


“The most immediate catalyst will be the outcome of key state elections, with investors closely watching whether the ruling party at the Centre can wrest West Bengal from Trinamool Congress and make meaningful inroads into opposition-ruled Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently has a limited presence,” Hariprasad K, Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said.

 


Crude oil remains the single most critical macro variable, Hariprasad said.


“With Brent prices sustaining elevated levels amid ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, inflation risks remain pronounced. For an import-dependent economy like India, persistently high crude prices exert pressure on the rupee-currently near record lows-and weigh on corporate margins as well as fiscal dynamics,” he added.


Macroeconomic data announcements, Q4 earnings, and foreign investor trading activity would also influence stock market trends this week.


“Crude oil price trends will remain the primary external variable, with the ongoing USIran standoff and closure of the Strait of Hormuz likely to keep volatility elevated,” Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.


Key macroeconomic data releases include the HSBC Manufacturing PMI (May 4), Services and Composite PMI (May 6), and foreign exchange reserves data (May 8), which will provide insights into economic momentum and external sector stability, he added.


Major corporate earnings announcements this week are from Ambuja Cements, BHEL, Hero MotoCorp, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Auto.


“Markets in the week ahead are likely to remain volatile and heavily news-driven. Key attention will remain on the evolving USIran dynamic-particularly whether the ceasefire holds, the progress of diplomatic talks, and any developments related to the Strait of Hormuz,” Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.


Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said, “This week, markets are expected to initially react to the outcome of state elections, particularly in West Bengal, which could trigger 1-2 days of volatility.” 
He further said that the major focus, however, will remain on crude oil prices, which have cooled slightly after surging towards USD 120 per barrel.


“Any fresh surge in oil could exert renewed selling pressure on Indian equities, while a sustained decline would likely improve sentiment. Developments around US-Iran relations will be a critical driver of crude volatility. With the Q4 earnings season in full swing, stock and sector-specific movements are likely to continue. FII flows and rupee movements will also remain key factors to watch,” Meena added.


In a holiday-shortened last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 249.29 points or 0.32 per cent, and the NSE Nifty went up by 99.6 points or 0.41 per cent.



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Nvidia's push into physical AI sparks rally in Asian tech partners

Nvidia's push into physical AI sparks rally in Asian tech partners



By Abhishek Vishnoi

 


The list of Asian stocks that benefit from business partnership with Nvidia Corp. is getting longer, as the region further integrates into the AI chip giant’s business ecosystem.

 


Just in the past week, South Korea’s LG Electronics Inc., Taiwan’s Nanya Technology Corp., as well as China’s Huizhou Desay SV Automotive Co. and Pateo Connect Technology Shanghai Corp. have become the latest to rally on news of tie-ups, supply-chain participation or product collaboration with the US chip designer.

 


Investor enthusiasm about these firms, some of which are relatively obscure outside the industry or domestic markets, is a reminder of how Nvidia-induced demand is shaping stock performance across Asia’s technology supply chain. 

 
 


Asian suppliers now account for about 90% of Nvidia’s production costs, up from roughly 65% last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The explosive growth of the chip designer’s products has intensified its reliance on Asian partners that dominate manufacturing, assembly and key components. 

 


“It’s inevitable that global tech companies like Nvidia will continue to ramp up their reliance on Asia supply chain,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. Physical AI “can add on top of the already burgeoning demand from Asia’s supply chains for AI chips,” he added.

 

Nvidia has expanded its roster of Asian partners in recent years, primarily through deeper chip-focused ties with suppliers such as SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. While those partnerships concentrated on scaling AI computing power, the latest wave of collaborations in the region pointed to a shift beyond semiconductors into physical AI, including robotics. 

 


Shares of LG Electronics jumped as much as 15% on Tuesday, their biggest intraday gain since Feb. 11, following a domestic media report that the firm and Nvidia will discuss a plan to integrate its home robot with the US chip designer’s platform.

 


In Taiwan, Nanya Technology’s shares surged 10% after a local news report on the chipmaker’s collaboration with Nvidia. Elsewhere, China’s Huizhou Desay also saw its stock rally after unveiling a new mass-production intelligent driving solution with Nvidia, while automobile product maker Pateo Connect Technology’s shares soared after the company entered a series of collaborations with Nvidia.

 


A LG Electronics spokesperson said the company can confirm that it recently met with Nvidia, adding that the two companies are exploring strategic collaboration in physical AI, including the robotics ecosystem.

 


A representative for Samsung Electronics declined to comment in response to Bloomberg’s queries. Nanya said in an emailed response that it doesn’t comment on customer-related information. 

 


Nvidia’s push into physical AI — spanning robotics, autonomous systems and AI-enabled manufacturing — extends its influence beyond chips into real-world deployment, positioning Asia as a critical partner in that expansion. Its Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang has framed physical AI as the next wave after generative AI.

 


“Increasing and broadening demand is creating opportunities across industries for more tech suppliers to join the supply chain as AI buildout continues globally,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It means that tech heavy north Asian markets may continue to outperform.”

 


The latest capital expenditure guidance from US tech giants shows AI spending is accelerating, with Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. each committing roughly $190 billion to $200 billion for this year and Meta Platforms Inc. raising its outlays to as much as $145 billion. 

 


Nvidia accounts for about half of Microsoft’s capital expenditure and roughly a quarter of Amazon’s, with a smaller but still leading share at Meta and Alphabet, based on calculations of data compiled by Bloomberg. 

 


Meanwhile, Hon Hai is a consistent secondary beneficiary, particularly at Microsoft and Amazon, while SK Hynix takes a mid-single-digit share across companies.

 


Surging demand has shown up in the results of those suppliers. Samsung’s semiconductor arm beat expectations last week with a 48-fold jump in profit. A few days earlier, SK Hynix reported a five-fold increase in quarterly earnings. 

 


“Asia’s technology base is a structurally important advantage, particularly as AI creates new demand across semiconductors, components, servers and broader hardware infrastructure,” said Rajeev De Mello, a portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA. “Asia has already developed significant experience and supply chains to build advanced semiconductors, and robots, which is a strong base for implementing physical AI.”



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After flying high, turbulence hits SIP returns

After flying high, turbulence hits SIP returns


From its last peak on 26 September 2024 to 30 April 2026, the Indian equity market has moved through a volatile, largely range-bound phase, marked by sharp corrections and brief recoveries. The phase was shaped by multiple headwinds, including persistently high global interest rates, sticky inflation and risk-off sentiment amid geopolitical tensions including US-Israel-Iran war. Persistent foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows weighed on large-cap stocks, while steady domestic institutional inflows provided partial support, preventing deeper market declines.

Equity mutual funds followed suit, with many schemes across categories correcting more than their respective benchmarks, while a few showed resilience. bl.portfolio computed SIP performance for this 19-month period across major equity categories to identify the top and bottom five schemes. SIP returns shown here are in XIRR (extended internal rate of return), the annualised return that accounts for the timing and amount of each installment. Also analysed were stock holdings of top- and bottom-performing schemes in each category on point-to-point return basis, tracking their performance over the September 30, 2024 to April 30, 2026 period to identify sectors and stocks that drove or dragged returns.

It is important to mention that despite market volatility, SIP collections have remained robust in recent months, underscoring the resilience of retail investor flows and the growing stickiness of systematic investing.

Large-cap

The active large-cap category was the weakest among market-cap-based segments during this period. On average, it delivered an XIRR of -1.3 per cent, while the benchmark Nifty 100 TRI declined a relatively modest 0.5 per cent.

Bank of India Large Cap Fund, with an XIRR of 4.3 per cent, emerged as the top performer, aided by strong exposure to PSU banks, capital goods, defence and metals. Stocks such as TD Power Systems (174 per cent), SBI (35 per cent) and Tata Steel (25 per cent) were key contributors. Despite weakness in IT (Infosys, TCS) and FMCG, exposure to infrastructure and manufacturing themes aided performance.

In contrast, LIC MF Large Cap (-5 per cent) lagged peers due to underperforming large-cap defensives and IT. Major drags included ITC (-39 per cent), Infosys (-37 per cent), TCS (-42 per cent) and HUL (-23 per cent). While some names such as SBI and BEL performed strongly, exposure to HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank led to muted returns.

Mid-cap

Mid-cap funds outperformed other categories, delivering 5.6 per cent XIRR. This compares to 7.7 per cent from their benchmark Nifty Midcap 150 TRI. Despite volatility, the segment benefitted from strength in industrial and capex-linked mid-sized stocks.

ICICI Prudential Midcap (17 per cent XIRR) stood out, driven by exposure to capital goods, industrials, capital markets and select financials. Key contributors included Multi Commodity Exchange (162 per cent), Hitachi Energy (130 per cent), Nalco (89 per cent) and Navin Fluorine (98 per cent). Financials such as Muthoot Finance (68 per cent) and Nippon Life AMC (55 per cent) added alpha. Importantly, avoidance of weak pockets such as IT enhanced relative performance.

Motilal Oswal Midcap lagged others due to concentrated exposure to retail and consumption names such as Trent (-45 per cent), Prestige Estates (-23 per cent) and Tube Investments (-32 per cent).

Small-cap

The small-cap category delivered 3.9 per cent XIRR, compared to 2.2 per cent from the Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI.

Union Small Cap topped the category with 11.7 per cent XIRR, driven by outsized gains from stocks such as MCX (162 per cent), GE Vernova (167 per cent), Gabriel India (98 per cent), SJS Enterprises (80 per cent) and Karur Vysya Bank (64 per cent). Unlike peers, it avoided heavy exposure to consumption and chemicals.

Tata Small Cap lagged, as key drags came from sharp declines in transport and logistics (Allcargo Logistics -85 per cent, Transindia Real Estate -38 per cent), retail (Shoppers Stop -62 per cent) and commercial services (Quess Corp -74 per cent). Chemicals and pharma exposure (BASF -50 per cent, Cohance -58 per cent, Hikal -48 per cent) also suffered.

Large & mid-cap

The large and mid-cap category delivered 2.3 per cent XIRR, versus 3.6 per cent from the Nifty LargeMidcap 250 TRI.

Motilal Oswal Large & Midcap topped the category. Outperformance was driven by concentrated bets in high-growth sectors such as capital markets, defence and electrical equipment. Stocks such as MCX (162 per cent), GE Vernova T&D (167 per cent), Bharat Electronics (51 per cent) and Amber Enterprises (66 per cent) delivered strong gains.

Tata Large & Mid Cap lagged due to sharp declines in Quess Corp (-74 per cent), Devyani International (-36 per cent), Gujarat State Petronet (-32 per cent) and Sundram Fasteners (-38 per cent), which weighed heavily. The fund also had exposure to lagging sectors such as IT, consumption and chemicals, while participation in outperforming themes such as capital goods and PSU plays was limited.

Flexi-cap

The flexi-cap category delivered -0.1 per cent XIRR, while the Nifty 500 TRI gained 1.3 per cent.

Quant Flexi Cap topped the category. Key contributors included Adani Power (69 per cent) and infrastructure-linked names such as L&T. Its dynamic allocation across power, autos and capital markets, along with concentrated bets, helped it capture market upcycles.

UTI Flexi Cap was the laggard. Underperformance was driven by sharp drawdowns in consumption, chemicals and healthcare stocks. Holdings such as Cohance Lifesciences (-58 per cent), Syngene (-47 per cent), Rossari Biotech (-47 per cent) and Clean Science (-48 per cent) dragged returns. IT exposure (Infosys, Coforge) added to the weakness.

Multi-cap

The multi-cap category delivered 1.9 per cent XIRR, compared to 2.4 per cent from the Nifty 500 Multicap 50:25:25 TRI.

Bank of India Multi Cap led the category, benefiting from exposure to metals, PSU banks, autos and capital market stocks. Key gainers included Acutaas Chemicals (198 per cent), Indian Bank (63 per cent), FSN E-Commerce (35 per cent) and Shriram Finance (31 per cent).

Invesco India Multicap lagged, as underperformance was driven by weakness in retail, IT and industrial cyclicals. Stocks such as Trent (-45 per cent), Aditya Birla Real Estate (-47 per cent), Jyoti CNC (-34 per cent) and Coforge (-14 per cent) were key drags.

Published on May 2, 2026



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