A new “World Cybercrime Index” developed by researchers shows that a majority of cybercriminals come from just a few countries.

According to a report in The Indian Express, cybercrime costs the world around $9.22 trillion in 2024, and it is expected to grow to $13.82 trillion by 2028. However, pinpointing the geographical bases of cybercriminal activities remains challenging because they use methods that block their locations.

The survey, through which researchers created the “World Cybercrime Index”, showed that cybercriminal threats originate only in a small number of countries — China, Russia, Ukraine, the US, Romania, and Nigeria ranked in the top 10 for each of the selected five categories, namely technical products or services, attacks and extortion, data or identity theft, scams, and cashing out or money laundering.

The survey stated that as many as 97 countries were named as being hubs for a particular category.

According to the IE report, the survey was conducted by Miranda Bruce (University of Oxford/University of New South Wales), Jonathan Lusthaus (University of Oxford), Ridhi Kashyap (University of Oxford), Nigel Phair (Monash University), and Federico Varese (Sciences Po). These researchers spoke to leading cybercrime experts to create the survey.

India secured the 10th position in the rankings, scoring 7.90 for impact, 6.60 for the professionalism of cybercriminals, and 6.65 for technical skills. In contrast, China scored 8.22, 7.70, and 7.81, respectively, while the US achieved 7.99, 7.21, and 7.21. Overall, India garnered a score of 7.05, with China and the US obtaining 7.91 and 7.47, respectively, positioning them in third and fourth places. The top two spots were claimed by Russia and Ukraine, according to the IE report.

Additionally, the researchers observed a correlation between specific types of cybercrimes and their originating countries. For instance, the US was frequently linked to data and identity theft, whereas cybercrimes related to technical products or services appeared to predominantly originate from China.

In the future, this index could enhance cybercrime research, enabling organisations to make tailored preventive measures aimed at particular “hub countries.” However, the study is subject to limitations due to its relatively small pool of experts, potentially lacking global representation. Moreover, inaccuracies may arise from variations in how experts interpret survey questions. Furthermore, the index fails to address the complex overlap between profit-motivated cybercrime and state-sanctioned (or incentivised) criminal activities, according to the IE report.

The results of the study were published in the journal PLOS ONE on April 10.

First Published: Apr 11 2024 | 5:22 PM IST