Crude oil futures declined Tuesday morning after US President Donald Trump issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia to end the war with Ukraine.
At 9.55 am on Tuesday, September Brent oil futures were at $68.87, down by 0.49 per cent, and August crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $66.59, down by 0.58 per cent. July crude oil futures were trading at ₹5728 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹5,771, down by 0.75 per cent, and August futures were trading at ₹5,649 against the previous close of ₹5,693, down by 0.77 per cent.
While announcing his decision to provide new weapons to Ukraine on Monday, Trump threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Russia agrees for a ceasefire with Ukraine. However, his threat came with a 50-day deadline.
In their Commodities Feed for Tuesday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said ICE Brent settled a little more than 1.6 per cent lower on Monday, taking prices back below $70 a barrel, despite Trump’s ‘major statement’ on Russia. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of 100 per cent on Russia, if Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t make a deal within 50 days to end the war in Ukraine.
“The lack of any immediate action and the belief that these threats won’t be carried out help to explain the market reaction,” they said.
However, if Trump does follow through, and the tariff is implemented effectively, it would drastically change the outlook for the oil market. Russia exports more than 7 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products. China, India and Turkey are the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. They would need to weigh the benefits of buying discounted Russian crude oil against the cost of their exports to the US facing prohibitively high tariffs, they said.
If effectively enforced, the global market would be pushed into a large deficit. OPEC’s spare production capacity would not be able to fill the entire shortfall. This would present significant upside to oil prices. “Given Trump’s desire for low oil prices, we don’t believe Trump would be keen to follow through with this threat,” they said.
July natural gas futures were trading at ₹295.90 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹299.60, down by 1.23 per cent.
On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), July guargum contracts were trading at ₹9,759 in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹9,621, up by 1.43 per cent.
July cottonseed oilcake futures were trading at ₹3,055 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹3,063, down by 0.26 per cent.
Published on July 15, 2025
