The SBI Research emphasised that even the US action on Venezuela has not significantly impacted prices.
Crude oil prices are expected to weaken in line with global trends with prices for the Indian basket likely to soften to as much as $50 per barrel and even below by June 2026, said SBI Research on Monday.
The SBI Research emphasised that even the US action on Venezuela has not significantly impacted prices.
“Indian basket expected to soften in line with expected trends internationally: Our base case is $50 per barrel… or even lower by June 2026,” it said.
Daily production
SBI Research pointed out that crude oil prices in general have remained subdued due to OPEC+ decision to increase production. The reversal of the strategy and reduction in daily production has not resulted in reversal of price movements and crude prices continued their southward decline.
The medium-term trends in prices since 2022 for Brent and Indian basket show that there has been a downward trend in crude prices, it added.
“The local peaks during the entire stretch indicate the impact of geopolitical risk, although the latest event in Venezuela has not impacted the price significantly on the upside,” SBI Research said.
The outlook on Brent crude for 2026 is further softening from the current levels.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 largely driven by buildup of inventory, it noted.
Since the India basket has correlation of 0.98 with Brent crude, the trends in Brent suggest further softening of Indian basket, it added.
“A moving average analysis for Indian crude, shows that current prices are trending below the 50 and 200 period moving averages suggesting future lower levels from current level at $62.20 per barrel. An autoregressive quantile forecast for Indian basket indicates that the 50th percentile forecast by March 2026 is $53.31 and $51.85 by June 2026. The 25th percentile forecast trends very close to median,” SBI Research explained.
Published on January 5, 2026
