India’s gold demand in 2025 is projected to remain robust, ranging between 700-800 tonnes despite a 31 per cent increase value-wise in 2024, Sachin Jain, Regional CEO—India, World Gold Council, said.
This projection follows a strong performance in 2024, when total gold demand in India stood at 802.8 tonnes, marking a 5 per cent increase from 761 tonnes in 2023.
In India, total gold demand value in 2024 was ₹5,15,390 crore, up by 31 per cent compared with ₹3,92,000 crore in 2023. The average quarterly gold price in October-December 2024 was ₹72,268.3 per 10 grams in comparison to ₹52,761.3 in same quarter a year-ago (without import duty and GST), according to WGC.
Sachin Jain, Regional CEO, India, World Gold Council
‘Stable 2025’
“2024 was a golden year for gold business with a historical all-time high. We think 2025 will be a more stable year and perhaps a more positive year overall. This is in terms of price stability, consumption happens and doesn’t get impaired because of price volatility,” Jain told businessline.
Jain said investment demand in gold as an asset class will go up this year,but jewellery may see some demand getting moderated or dampened in India in 2025.
He said WGC was “not less ambitious” in projecting a demand of 700-800 tonnes for Indian gold demand in 2025. “You may have seen 5 per cent growth in demand in 2024. But the starting price of gold on January 1, 2024, and January 1, 2025, is a very significant one,” Jain said.
“We have to take a right balance between volume and value. As we go forward in the year we will be perhaps sharpening this outlook. We see 2025 to be a good strong year and fundamentals of gold are strong”.
More disposable income
With general elections behind and the recent significant budget giving additional disposable income in the hands of people, the current year should be a positive one at the current level of pricing, he said.
“Once new tax regime kicks off on April 1, it will bring more disposable income in hands of consumers. Historically we have seen that with 1 percent increase in disposable income in India, we have seen 1 percent increase in demand in gold,” Jain added.
Jain highlighted that increased digitisation of Indian economy will lead to increased demand for gold exchange traded funds (ETF) this year. On January 1, 2024, Gold ETF AUM was about 40 tonnes. We ended the year with 54 tonnes. We believe this is going to be significantly higher as we go into this year”, he said. He also said that Centre’s move to stop issuing sovereign gold bonds is also expected to increase demand for gold ETFs.
Jain also said that the conversation of increased gold buying by central banks — which is strategic in nature — should continue in 2025. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had in 2024 acquired 73 tonnes, compared to just 16 tonnes in 2023.
Q4 demand down
In the December quarter, gold demand was flat at 266 tonne amid sharp spike in prices and weak demand from the jewellery sector. In value terms, it was up 37 per cent at ₹1.92 lakh crore (₹1.40 lakh crore), according to the World Gold Council data released on Wednesday.
Jewellery demand was down 5 per cent to 190 tonnes (200 tonnes) in the December quarter while in value terms it jumped 30 per cent to ₹1.37 lakh crore (₹1.05 lakh crore). Investment demand increased 14 per cent to 76 tonnes (67 tonnes) and was up 56 per cent at ₹54,940 crore (₹35,180 crore).
Imports were down one per cent at 223 tonnes (225 tonnes) while gold recycling was up 16 per cent at 30 tonnes (26 tonnes). The average quarterly price in the December quarter was up 37 per cent at ₹72,268 (₹52,761) per 10 grams on geopolitical issues.
Sachin Jain, Regional CEO, India, World Gold Council said gold prices resumed their upward trend after the July duty cut and subsequently fell in November attracting jewellery at lower price point.
The festival period of Dhanteras and Diwali stimulated buying in the final quarter and it was further boosted by e-commerce platforms offering rapid delivery of small gold investment bars and coins, he said.
RBI purchases
Gold purchase by RBI increased four times to 73 tonnes in 2024 against 16 tonnes in 2023.
WGC said it anticipates the trend of robust gold investment demand will continue, with retail investors showing growing interest in gold ETFs, digital gold, and coins and bars
