Maj General Dr Ashok Kumar (Retired), Director General Centre of Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS), speaks to businessline on what 2024 means for Indian defence sector.

Edited Excerpts:

Is 2024 a year for recaliberation of defence ties?

2024 undoubtedly has been an year for re-calibration of defence engagements.

Russia-Ukraine war is still continue to impacting the world in multiple ways. India has to continue not only maintaining the strategic balance but has to focus on indigenisation of defence equipment as majority inventory is imported that too from Russia.

The stand off with China continuing since April 2020 has been largely resolved on October 21, 2024, with more progress being made during Special Representatives meeting held on 18 December 2024. While there are still certain issues to be resolved, this emerging situation will help Indian defence forces to undertake major organisational reforms related to theaterisation in the coming year.

India has also focused on defence exports which has been the highest in this year.

How will Indiabenefit from attempts to restore trust in bilateral engagements with China, Russia and Donald Trump’s second stint at White House?

The current standoff with China in High Altitude Areas (HAA) had resulted in both sides almost being face to face and maintaining more than 50,000 troops.

The current developments on October 21 and December 18, and positive steps to revert back to pre-April 2020 positions as well as number of other issues are also required to be resolved. The direction of relationship in the end of year 2024 has definitely been encouraging with both parties showing more maturity.

Emerging contours of peace and tranquillity do enable India to divert its expenditure towards organisational reforms, force restructuring, infrastructure growth and capacity building.

While the emerging situation has to be leveraged constructively but one has to be always ready as China cannot be trusted given its historical conduct.

What can we expect militarily from 2025?

With the stature of defence forces rising in 2024 and India being able to maintain strategic autonomy despite multiple geo-political, geo-economic and technological challenges, I expect major structured reforms including operationalisation of theaterisation and development of whole of Nation Approach (WONA) in all our defence endeavours, a more robust infrastructure having dual use profile to see all weather connectivity, even to the remotest places where the defence forces are deployed can be expected.

Force accretion in Army, Navy and Air Force as per emerging threat, indigenisation reaching critical threshold in defence manufacturing might also happen.

Defence exports might reach minimum 50,000 crore.





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