Global growth in cotton is under pressure from an increasing shift towards sustainability and eco-conscious production, with consumers increasingly favouring responsible materials and manufacturing processes, industry experts and research analysts say.
“While natural fibres such as cotton have traditionally been viewed as sustainable and clean, concerns over overconsumption, water usage and climate sensitivity are prompting a gradual reduction in overall cotton use, driven in part by waning demand for fast fashion and a shift towards alternative materials,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, in its outlook “The Future of Cotton in Asia: Slowing Demand, Innovation and Resilience”.
“The textiles sector is looking at alternative fibres such as bamboo, hemp and recycled cotton. These are cheaper than cotton,” says Rajkot-based Anand Popat, a trader in cotton, yarn and cotton waste.
Blends make inroads
“Cotton blends are making inroads. Today, pure cotton makes up less than 30 per cent of the total fibre usage in textiles. Manufacturers have a lot of options,” said Ramanuj Das Boob, a sourcing agent in Raichur and Vice-President of All India Cotton Brokers Association.
Prabhu Dhamodaran, Convenor of Indian Texpreneurs Federation (ITF), said while alternative fibres have made some inroads, cotton remains the preferred choice among premium consumers. “This segment of consumers exhibits high spending resilience, which continues to support steady demand for cotton-based fashion products,” he said.
From India’s standpoint, for the first time, its cotton-based apparel exports have a 12 per cent share in the US market this year. “With India’s established strengths in cotton apparel, this momentum is likely to sustain,” Dhamodharan.
Pointing to various initiatives launched by the European Union and UK to promote environment-friendly products, BMI said rising adoption of synthetic fibres, bolstered by advancements in affordable, higher-quality, and increasingly bio-based alternatives, will likely add volatility to cotton demand.
Recycled cotton
“As consumer preferences continue to evolve towards more sustainable options, we anticipate a gradual slowdown in demand for the cotton crop, weighing on prices and thereby discouraging its production over the long term,” said the research agency.
“Cheaper costs of alternatives are affecting cotton. While the lowest price for cotton yarn is ₹220 a kg, blended yarns cost around ₹150,” said Das Boob.
“Prices of recycled cotton are one-fourth of the prices of pure cotton products. Even big retailers are looking at cutting costs, opting for cotton-blends rather than pure cotton,” said Popat.
BMI said significant challenges have emerged in cotton production in recent years, notably the development of Bt cotton resistance by the pink bollworm in India, driven by incompatibility with local agricultural and climatic conditions. “This underscores the need for cotton producers to constantly innovate and adapt to evolving challenges,” it said.
Social campaigns
Social campaigns against the alleged forced labour in Xinjiang’s cotton industry in China have led to global boycotts led by major fashion brands and consumers. “Domestic demand has also weakened, with Chinese apparel manufacturers increasingly turning to imported cotton to avoid repercussions from import bans and boycotts,” the research agency said.
Popat said various agencies are now trying to promote cotton. “It all began when cotton prices soared to ₹1 lakh a candy (356 kg). Manufacturers looked to cut costs and the alternatives emerged,” he said.
“Nothing can match the feeling of pure cotton. This is a cyclical trend. This could change in a few years,” said Das Boob.
Dhamodaran said inventory levels in the global fashion sector have normalised, with brands and retailers increasingly leveraging AI and digital tools for demand-driven, dynamic planning.
Near 5-year low
“Production is now closely aligned with consumption patterns, especially across developed markets, and EU import and consumption trends remain very stable. We expect even better momentum in the EU going forward,” he said.
BMI said India and China have launched measures to tide over the current problems in the cotton sector. These will likely bear fruit in course of time.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, global cotton production in 2025-26 is projected to be 25.78 million tonnes (mt) compared with 26.10 mt in 2024-25. While domestic use in producing nations is expected to rise to 25.72 mt (25.40 in 2024-25), exports will likely rise to 9.73 mt (9.36 mt). That will leave a higher ending stock of 16.83 mt (16.71 mt), a clear sign of bearishness.
On InterContinental Exchange, New York, cotton futures are near five-year low of 66 cents a pound. In India, prices for benchmark Shankar-6 are ruling at ₹57,500 a candy at Rajkot in Gujarat.
Published on July 24, 2025
