US and Israeli strikes on Iran have heightened disruption risk to Persian Gulf petroleum coke flows through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening exports to India and China, and potentially tightening supply, said Kpler.
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Dado Ruvic
The joint US-Israel offensive on Iran has heightened fears of a disruption in shipments of petroleum coke—a key input for the cement and steel sectors—from the Persian Gulf to India, a key consumer and importer.
India’s consumption of the carbonaceous product obtained during final cracking in oil refining has been rising in the past few years on the back of rising production of cement and steel as India’s industrial and commercial demand rises.
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have heightened disruption risk to Persian Gulf petroleum coke (pet coke) flows through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening exports to India and China, and potentially tightening supply, said Kpler.
The global data and analytics provider pointed out that increased geopolitical risk across the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns for pet coke flows and the market will now price higher freight risk and lack of insurance for vessels transiting the world’s most critical energy choke point.
Cement producers to feel heat
“India sits as the largest single destination for Gulf pet coke, particularly fuel grade coke. Indian cement producers run on pet coke as a primary fuel. A prolonged supply disruption exceeding a few weeks from Hormuz forces either a switch to domestic or imported coal or a sourcing pivot to the US Gulf pet coke, which will come with a price premium,” Kpler warned.
The Indian cement sector runs on thin margins. A sustained freight or availability shock feeds through to cement production costs rapidly. The combined monthly volume flowing through Hormuz from the above ports runs at around 400,000–600,000 tonnes in normal months with India absorbing the majority of this, it added.
Pet coke output around the Persian Gulf region is reserved for two distinct pet coke streams, fuel grade and anode-grade supply, which is typically sought by cement and aluminium industries, respectively.
“Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman export most of their pet coke production to Asia, with China and India taking the largest share. If vessel owners refuse to transit the strait or insurers withdraw cover, exporters will struggle to move cargoes,” Kpler pointed out.
India consumed around 20.32 million tonnes (mt) of petroleum coke in FY24, which rose to 22.06 mt in FY25. During the April-January period in FY26, the consumption stood at 16.85 mt. It produced 15.1 mt, 15 mt and 12.3 mt of petroleum coke in FY24, FY25 and 10M FY26, respectively.
The country imported almost half of its requirement for the carbonaceous product in the last few years. Its imports stood at 10.96 mt, 13.15 mt and almost 10 mt during FY24, FY25 and 10M FY26, respectively.
US pet coke demand to spike
Kpler explained that producers cannot defer shipments for an extended period. Refineries need to clear pet coke stocks to maintain operating rates. A prolonged disruption would reduce effective supply to Asia and force buyers into the spot market.
Breaking up the market dynamics, it explained that coal markets would absorb part of the impact. However, lower pet coke availability from the Gulf would increase competition for alternative solid fuels, particularly the US pet coke and thermal coal from the US, Indonesia and Australia.
Indian and Chinese buyers would lead that emerging demand given their exposure to Middle Eastern supply, it added.
Coal already trades at competitive levels against pet coke in most consuming regions. Current price spreads limit additional switching capacity, especially where plants optimise blends for technical reasons. As a result, incremental coal demand would likely remain moderate unless pet coke prices spike sharply or physical shortages emerge, Kpler said.
On the coal side, firm gas and oil prices strengthen overall fuel price sentiment. The region does not account for material coal supply, so direct physical impact remains limited. Price direction will depend more on substitution flows and cross fuel spreads than on any loss of coal production, it added.
Published on March 4, 2026
