Mango production in India, the leading producer and consumer of the fruit, is projected to account for about 36 million tonnes (mt) in 2034, or 42 per cent of global production, destined largely for local, informal markets, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034. The country’s per capita consumption is projected to increase by 1.2 per cent per annum over the outlook period, reaching 23.1 kg.
At the same time, the report said India’s banana output is expected to reach 45 mt by 2034. Its per capita consumption is projected to 28.1 kg in 2034 — up from 24.9 kg in the base period.
Global production of mangoes, mangosteens and guavas is projected to increase at 2.8 per cent per annum, to reach 86 mt by 2034 from 62 mt in the base period. Per the report, growth in mango production will be influenced by income-driven growth in demand in producing countries, along with population dynamics.
Share of mango exports
Asia will continue to account for around 70 per cent of the global production in 2034. This is primarily due to the strong growth in domestic demand in India, driven by rising incomes and shifts in dietary preferences.
In 2024, the report said, global exports of mango, mangosteen and guava were up 3 per cent year-on-year at about 2.5 mt. In terms of export, mango accounted for around 85 per cent of global shipments and mangosteen for around 15 per cent. Guava continued to display a negligible availability, mainly due to its lesser suitability for transportation.
Total global import quantities of fresh mangoes, mangosteens and guavas also rose by 4 per cent to 2.4 mt in 2024. The US and the European Union remained the leading global importers, with expected import shares of 24 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively. The imports by China, the third-largest importer of mangoes, mangosteens and guavas in recent years, grew by 16 per cent in 2024, to approximately 0.34 mt.
The report predicted global banana production to reach 166 mt by 2034, from the 139 mt in the base period. With a slowing world population, global production and consumption are expected to expand at a moderate 1.4 per cent per annum over the outlook period. However, in China and India, income growth is anticipated to stimulate changing health and nutrition perceptions and support demand for bananas beyound population growth.
Plaguing uncertainties
In 2024, the global banana trade was impacted by lower supplies due to adverse weather and the spread of plant pests and diseases, the report said. The import demand for the fruit remained steady in developed markets, with bananas benefiting from their affordability amid inflation. However, average import unit values declined in 2024, with 2 per cent dip in the European Union and 23 per cent in the US, reversing the previous two years’ price increases.
The report said the outlook for production, trade and consumption of bananas and other major fresh tropical fruits is subject to several uncertainties. Elevated costs of living, high interest expenses and exchange rate fluctuations might hinder demand in domestic and import markets, especially for consumers in lower economic strata.
Given the typically high unit values and high income and price elasticities of demand for tropical fruits, changes in consumer incomes or prices can dramatically affect demand. Geopolitical uncertainties that may result in the disruption of established trade relationships and changing tariffs and potentially have large effects on domestic and global markets are of further concern.
Published on July 25, 2025
