File picture: Women farmers sow paddy in a field in Budgam.
| Photo Credit:
ANI
India’s rice production will likely rise to a record high in the 2025-26 season (September 2025-August 2026) even as global grains production could rise to a fresh peak of 2,375 million tonnes (mt), forecasts by international agencies say. India’s wheat crop this season has been estimated at a record high, too.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), rice production in the 2025-26 season has been forecast at a record 151 mt (milled basis), up 1 per cent from last year, and 11 per cent from the 5-year average.
“Harvested area is forecast at 51.0 million hectares (mh), unchanged from last year’s record high, and up 7 per cent from the 5-year average. The yield (rough basis) is estimated at a record 4.44 tonnes/hectare,” it said.
Favourable conditions
At the end of May, conditions were favourable, and rice sowing was reportedly progressing well and ahead of the normal pace, the Foreign Agricultural Service, New Delhi Post of USDA, said.
For the current season, rice production has been estimated at 150 mt, higher than the Indian government’s third advance estimate of 149.07 mt.
AMIS said India had finished rabi and zaid (summer) rice harvest, even as South-East Asia was transitioning between seasons.
The projections for another record high rice production next season come amidst record stocks of rice with the Food Corporation of India (FCI). As of June 1, FCI had record stocks of 37.99 mt of rice and 32.26 mt of unmilled paddy (21.61 mt of rice).
Slack demand
Rice trade in the global market has slackened because of poor demand, and most buyers hold huge inventories. According to traders, this situation will likely change only in the second half of July.
UN agency Food and Agriculture Organisation’s Agricultural Information Marketing System (AMIS) says rice production in 2025-26 is seen at an “all-time high”, as another abundant Asian harvest, coupled with good crops in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Europe, overshadows shortfalls in North America and Oceania.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has forecast record production of rice in 2025-26 at 541 mt.
The USDA has projected wheat production in the 2025-26 season (April-March) at a record 117.5 mt, the same as the Indian government’s estimate.
Conducive climate
“Harvested area is estimated at 32.9 million hectares, up 3 per cent from last year and 5 per cent from the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at a record 3.57 tonnes per hectare, up a tad over last year,” it said.
The USDA’s New Delhi post said from the start of the sowing season in October, to the end of the season in April, satellite-derived observations indicated favourable irrigation water resources, soil moisture, and crop progress.
This was primarily over the main wheat growing areas, especially in Uttar Pradesh (accounting for 30 per cent of total production), Madhya Pradesh (23 per cent), Punjab (15 per cent), Rajasthan (10 per cent), and Haryana (10 per cent). “These conditions have facilitated rapid planting, crop establishment, development and grain filling… Farmers were also encouraged by the government’s pronouncement of relatively higher minimum support prices than last year,” said the USDA.
AMIS said the harvest in India wrapped up under favourable conditions.
As of June 1, wheat stocks with FCI were at a three-year high of 36.93 mt. The Indian government has procured 30.02 mt of wheat this year, against a target of 32.27 mt. However, it is higher than the 26.6 mt procured last year.
Published on June 15, 2025
