Yields on Japan’s benchmark
government bonds (JGBs) hit a 29-year high on Monday after the
U.S.-Iran peace talks collapsed and the U.S. Navy prepared a
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply
higher and fuelling inflation fears.
The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 5.5 basis points (bps) to 2.490%, the highest since early June 1997, while the five-year yield rose 4 bps to a record high of 1.900%. Yields move inversely to bond prices.
“Uncertainty over the outlook for the Middle East situation
remains high, and lingering inflation concerns stemming from a
prolonged rise in crude oil prices are likely to put upward
pressure on JGB yields,” Keisuke Tsuruta, a senior bond
strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, said in
a note.
Government bond yields have been rising globally as elevated
oil prices in the wake of the Iran war raised inflation risks,
while the ceasefire reached last week remained fragile.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the U.S.
Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising the
stakes after marathon talks with Iran failed to reach a deal,
jeopardising a fragile two-week ceasefire.
Later on Monday, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino
will read Governor Kazuo Ueda’s address on his behalf at an
event hosted by the Trust Companies Association of Japan.
Analysts said the event could be the BOJ’s last chance
before its policy meeting later this month to signal whether it
will raise interest rates this month.
“(Ueda) was talking to parliament last week, outlining that
policy was still clearly accommodative,” Kenneth Crompton, head
of rate strategy at National Australia Bank, said in a podcast.
“So after a fairly hawkish outturn from their meeting back
in March, that potentially still leaves some chance of an April
move on the table.”
The two-year yield, the one most sensitive to
BOJ policy rates, increased 1 bp to 1.41%. Other tenors were yet
to be traded, as of 0044 GMT.
Interest rate swaps on Friday indicated a 57% chance of a
BOJ rate hike this month, roughly in line with the day before,
according to Tokyo Tanshi data.
Published on April 13, 2026
